HTN @ LAA
Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia (R) v Janson Junk (R)
The Astros, who won Monday in a 10-0 blowout of the Angels, won again last night 10-5 in another blowout. They now lead the AL West by 8 games over the A’s and Mariners with just 11 left to play, would have to blow it, not win the division, while the Angels can only look to next season.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
5.34
|
1
|
0.337
|
2
|
117
|
1
|
110.1
|
2
|
9.1%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
6
|
33.4%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
LAA
|
4.44
|
18
|
0.309
|
18
|
95
|
16
|
-20.8
|
18
|
7.4%
|
28
|
30.2%
|
28
|
30.2%
|
28
|
23.6%
|
18
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
0.438
|
14
|
1.28
|
11
|
3.90
|
9
|
73.1%
|
8
|
25.9%
|
6
|
10.1%
|
16
|
64.9%
|
24
|
58.6%
|
22
|
LAA
|
0.487
|
22
|
1.42
|
26
|
4.56
|
23
|
70.5%
|
21
|
23.7%
|
15
|
10.4%
|
20
|
63.8%
|
17
|
57.4%
|
17
|
Edge – HTN
Starting Pitchers
Luis Garcia has started 26 games for the Astros this season, with 16 that graded as above average, 1 that graded as average, and 9 that graded below average. That leaves him with a good 1.16 WHIP and 3.37 ERA. Garcia’s 3.91 xERA and ERA metrics are all about a half a run higher than his ERA, but still good. His .302 xwOBA is very close to his .290 wOBA, and both are a little lower than league average. Garcia also has an impressive 27.2% K rate, with a decent 7.6% walk rate.
Janson Junk has only started 2 games for the Astros, so we have a very small sample size to begin with. In his first start against the Rangers, he gave up 5 runs (1earned) on 6 hits (2 HRs) and a walk over 3.2 innings with 2 Ks. In his second start at the White Sox, Junk gave up 1 run on 3 hits (1 HR) and 2 Ks over 4.1 innings. That’s a total of 6 runs (2 earned) on 9 hits (3 HRS) and 1 walk 8 innings, with 4 Ks.
The Astros have the better offense and the better of two lousy bullpens. They also probably have the better starting pitcher. The Astros should win this one going away, as long as their offense doesn’t go into one of those funks that they sometimes have where they just don’t hit. I didn’t have the time to post this, but I added the Astros to my round robin parlay card at the last minute. I guess we’ll know if that was a mistake in the AM
Pick HTN 1st 5 and fill game MLs in a few parlays.