LAD @ COL
Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (R) v German Marquez (R)
The Dodgers beat the Rockies in a wild one, 5-4 in 10 innings. They have already have clinched an NL playoff spot, but still trail the Giants by 1 game in the NL West. The Rockies have no playoff aspirations, but they are very good (45-28) at Coors.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.05
|
5
|
0.324
|
7
|
105
|
7
|
44.8
|
7
|
9.9%
|
2
|
35.2%
|
1
|
35.2%
|
2
|
22.9%
|
12
|
COL*
|
5.75
|
2
|
0.351
|
2
|
92
|
23
|
79.0
|
2
|
7.7%
|
25
|
33.0%
|
9
|
36.7%
|
1
|
19.2%
|
2
|
Edge – COL very close
*Since the Rockies hit so much better at home, I used home stats only for them.
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
0.480
|
3
|
1.19
|
3
|
3.20
|
2
|
73.6%
|
6
|
25.4%
|
10
|
10.4%
|
20
|
63.2%
|
10
|
57.1%
|
10
|
COL
|
0.562
|
25
|
1.44
|
27
|
5.01
|
27
|
69.5%
|
25
|
22.4%
|
23
|
11.0%
|
24
|
64.9%
|
26
|
58.7%
|
26
|
Edge – LAD big
Starting Pitchers
Walker Buehler has started 30 games for the Dodgers this season, with 24 grading as above average, including 12 of his last 13, 1 grading as average, and just 5 grading as below average. He has given up more than 3 runs just four times all season. His 0.96 WHIP and 2.39 ERA are both superb and his 3.11 xERA and ERA metrics, while all higher than his ERA, are all still very good. That discrepancy can be traced to Buehler’s low .242 BABIP, which is about 20 points lower than his already low career rate. His 25.8% K rate is still good, but down almost 3% from last season. However, it is accompanied by a solid 6.5% walk rate that is also down about 1% from las season. Buehler’s decreased K rate was a concern early on, but it appears that he has made some adjustments and is now willing to accept a few less Ks, for better command. That’s apparently the case as evidenced by his excellent 194/49 K/BB ratio. Buehler has pitcher really well but has been victimized by poor run support in several of his recent outings. He still has to be considered a strong candidate for the NL Cy Young award.
German Marquez has started 30 games for the Rockies with 17 above average starts and 13 below average ones, but6 of the below average starts were during his last 7. Marquez’s 1.23 WHIP is solid, but his 4.16 ERA is mediocre. However, his 3.90 xERA is la little ower than his ERA, as are all his ERA metrics. Marquez’s .298 wOBA and .302 xwOBA are both lower than league average and his 23.6% K rate is also solid, and Marquez is combining it with a very good 51.1% GB rate, always a good thing when you pitch half of your games at Coors. His 8.2% walk rate is on the high side, but not alarmingly so. It should be noted that this season Marquez has been much better at home, posting a 1.10 WHIP, a 3.16 ERA and a .265 wOBA in his 16 starts at Coors, as opposd to a 1.40 WHIP, a 5.38 ERA and a .336 wOBA in his 14 road starts.
When we factor in Coors, the offenses look pretty even, but the Dodgers have the clearly better bullpen and probsably the better starting pitcher, although when we factor in how much better Marquezz has been at Coors, that matchup is closer.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs is a series of parlays.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
105
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
PHIL ML
|
105
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
112
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
112
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
BOS 1st 5
|
136
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
BOS ML
|
136
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
-100
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
PHIL ML
|
-100
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
NYY 1st 5
|
108
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
NYY ML
|
107
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
BOS 1st 5
|
131
|
2
|
|
LAD full game
|
BOS ML
|
131
|
2
|