The Reds game was postponed, so we move on. Here are two more early evening game breakdowns.
TEX @ NYY
Starting Pitchers: Taylor Hearn (L) v Corey Kluber (R)
After a close 4-3 win over the Rangers in Monday night, the Yanks won again last night 7-1. Unfortunately, so did the Red Sox and Blue Jays, so the Yanks still find themselves trailing the Blue Jays by half a game for the final AL wild card spot. with just 10 games left. The Rangers, along with the Pirates, D-backs and Orioles remain one of the four wort teams in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
3.85
|
29
|
0.291
|
30
|
84
|
27
|
-104.1
|
30
|
7.3%
|
29
|
31.3%
|
23
|
31.3%
|
23
|
23.4%
|
15
|
NYY
|
4.33
|
19
|
0.317
|
11
|
101
|
9
|
12.6
|
11
|
10.4%
|
1
|
31.8%
|
17
|
31.8%
|
17
|
24.4%
|
25
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
0.619
|
19
|
1.34
|
20
|
4.19
|
18
|
70.5%
|
21
|
21.7%
|
28
|
9.5%
|
11
|
52.4%
|
18
|
44.4%
|
18
|
NYY
|
0.594
|
10
|
1.22
|
4
|
3.73
|
6
|
71.4%
|
16
|
26.2%
|
5
|
9.1%
|
6
|
60.7%
|
12
|
52.6%
|
12
|
Edge – NYY
Starting Pitchers
Taylor Hearn has spent most of the season in the Rangers pen. He has appeared in 40 games, but has started just 9 games for the Rangers, with 4 grading as above average and 5 grading as below average. In those 9 starts, Hearn has given up 26 runs on 41 hits and 10 walks over 40.1 innings, with 32 Ks. That come out to a decent 1.26 WHIP, but very high 5.80 ERA, with ERA metric that are all around 5.00 and a .344 wOBA. Overall, Hearn has a mediocre 1.31 WHIP and 4.52 ERA. He 4.75 xERA and ERA metrics are all a little higher than his ERA. . His .322 wOBA is slightl higher than league average, while his .330 xwOBA is slightly higher. Hearns has a pedestrian 21.9% K rate, but a high 9/3% walk rate. Hearn hasn’t been awful, but he hasn’t been good either.
Corey Kluber has started 14 games for the Yankees with only 5 that graded as above average and 9 that graded as below average. Kluber missed 3 months with a shoulder strain and has made 4 starts since returning, giving up 11 runs on 18 hits and 9 walks over 17.2 innings, while striking out 21. That comes to a lousy 1.53 WHIP and 5.60 ERA, very unKluberesque numbers. The only encouraging part is that Kluber did toss 6 scoreless innings, giving up just 4 hits and 2 walks against the Indians in his last start. Klubers overall 1.28 WHIP and 3.68 ERA are both decent. However his 4.19 xERA is about a half a run and so are his ERA metrics. Kluber’s ,303 wOBA and .317 xWOBA are right around league average, and his 25.4% K rate is fine, but his 10.7% walk rate is 5% higher than his career rate. Is Kluber returning to form? There are a few encouraging signs like his last start, but we really don’t know what he has left after basically missing two straight seasons. Even before the injuries, the signs weren’t looking all that good. At 35, there’s a lot of wear and tear there and we might never again see the dominant Kluber that we remember, but I’m not prepared to confine him to the trash heap just yet. He’s has a lot of time for that right arm to rest and heal.
The Yankees would seem to have almost all the edges in this game, so why don’t I trust them? The Yanks don’t have a good offense, but compared to what the Rangers have, the Yanks do have the clearly better offense. The Yanks bullpen has not been anywhere near as good as expected, but again compared to the Rangers, it again looks like the Yanks have a clear edge. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Hearn’s not very good and I see nothing indicating that he’s getting any better. Kluber has , at least us some reasons for optimism, so I guess I’ll give him a small edge. Another factor to consider is that the Yanks desperately need this game. They still trail the Blue Jays by half a game in the race for the final AL wild card spot. They can’t afford to fall any further behind with just 10 games left. Still, I just don’t completely trust the Yanks not to find a way to blow what should be an easy win against a really bad team. The Yanks still have 3 games left with the Red Sox and 3 with the Jays, the two team ahead of them in the wild card race, but it won’t matter if they don’t take care of business against these Rangers. I think that’s what they do again tonight.
Pick #1 – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLS in a series of parlays.
NYM @ BOS
Starting Pitchers: Tajuan Walker (R) v Chris Sale (L)
With a 6-3 win over the Mets last night, the Reds Sox still lead the AL wild card race b 1.5 games over the Blue Jays. The Mets are mathematically alive, but who are we kidding here? They’re 7 games out in the NL East and 8.5 out in the NL wild card race, with just 11 to play. They have virtually no chance of getting a playoff spot.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
3.95
|
27
|
0.308
|
19
|
97
|
13
|
-30.6
|
20
|
8.5%
|
18
|
31.6%
|
21
|
31.6%
|
21
|
23.6%
|
18
|
BOS
|
5.14
|
4
|
0.332
|
3
|
107
|
6
|
86.5
|
3
|
8.3%
|
19
|
33.1%
|
8
|
33.1%
|
8
|
22.7%
|
10
|
Edge – BOS big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
0.531
|
13
|
1.33
|
18
|
3.97
|
12
|
74.4%
|
4
|
25.4%
|
10
|
9.7%
|
14
|
61.4%
|
20
|
53.7%
|
20
|
BOS
|
0.460
|
18
|
1.39
|
22
|
3.93
|
10
|
72.4%
|
12
|
25.8%
|
7
|
10.7%
|
22
|
69.1%
|
5
|
65.0%
|
5
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers
Tajuan Walker has started 27 games for the Mets this season, with 16 of them grading as above average and 11 grading as below average, including 2 of his last 3. That’s left him with a solid 1.17 WHIP, but a mediocre 4.27 ERA. However, Walker’s 4.43 xERA and ERA metrics are all a little higher than his ERA. That discrepancy is probably due to Walker’s low .254 BABIP that is still about 20 points lower than his career average. As that normalizes, I would expect Walker’s ERA to rise a little, closer to where his metrics say it should be. Another factor is his relatively high 8.1% walk rate. His 22.7% K rate is OK, but the walks are a concern. Walker has walked 50 in just under 150 innings. So far, that hasn’t hurt him too much, but down the road, it could. Walker has always shown flashes, but has never been able to put it all together on a consistent basis. He got off to a hell of a fine start this season, but over his last 11 starts, he has been less than stellar, giving up 45 runs (43 earned) on 55 hits and 20 walks over 54 innings. That comes out to a high 1.39 WHIP and very high 7.44 ERA over that span. Walker has also struggled more on the road. In his 13 road starts, Walker have given up 42 runs (38 earned) on 63 hits and 25 walks over 66 innings. That come out to a 1.33 WHIP and 5.18 ERA.
Chris Sale finally returned from the IL on August 14. He has now started 6 games, with 4 grading as above average and just 2 grading as below average. In those 6 starts, Sale has given up a total of just 12 runs (8 earned) on 31 hits (5 HRS) and 6 walks over 30 innings, while striking out 31. That leaves him with a solid 1.23 WHIP and very good 2.40 ERA. However, Sale’s 3.46 ERA and ERA metrics, while still good, are still more than a full run higher than his ERA. Strangely, his .285 xWOBA is more than 40 points lower than his .328 wOBA. Sale’s 24.6% K rate is still good, but more than 6% lower than his 30.6% career rate, and his 4.8% walk rate is very good.
Offensively, this is a mismatch. The Red Sox have a very prolific offense, while the Mets offense is offensive. As for the two bullpens, neither have been very good, but they are pretty even. That brings us to the starting pitchers. Walker has struggled a lot more in his more recent starts, as well as in his road starts. By contrast, Sale is still working his way back, but his numbers are still all better than Walker’s. The Red Sox are the better tam and they are playing for a playoff spot. I expect that they will again simply outhit the Mets, even should the Mets get a few off Sale.
Pick - BOS 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.