For what it’s worth, in yesterday’s post, I made a mistake. I was rushing as miscalculated my results. I told you that I was +10.91 units for the day and that was correct. I also reported that I was -3.85 units for the season and that was incorrect. I was actually +10.50 units for the season. It’s not a big deal, but I am a big believer in complete transparency, so please accept my apologies.
As for yesterday, it was a second straight good day. I used three teams, the Yankees (1st 5 only), the Dodgers (1st 5 and full game), and the Astros (1st 5 and full game), in a series of two-team ML parlays. Fortunately, they all cashed, except for the Dodger 1st 5 which only pushed. I also had six side bets on the Indians (1st 5 RL), the Reds (1st 5 and full game MLs), the 1st 5 Under in the Rangers/Yankees game, the Red Sox ML, and the 1st 5 under in the Blue Jays/Rays game. Fortunately, with the exception of the two Reds bets, everything else cashed. That left me +18.47 units for the day, +4.11 units for the month of September, and +28.97 units for the season.
We have a full slate today, including a few day games. There are games on the board, including four that I am using on my ML parlay card. Here is that parlay card:
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
CIN 1st 5
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
-112
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5
|
Phill full game
|
-112
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
-104
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5
|
NYY full game
|
-105
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5
|
BOS 1st 5
|
117
|
2
|
|
CIN 1st 5
|
BOS full game
|
117
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYY 1st 5
|
-115
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYY full game
|
-115
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
BOS 1st 5
|
106
|
2
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
BOS full game
|
106
|
2
|
|
Phill full game
|
NYY 1st 5
|
-114
|
2
|
|
Phill full game
|
NYY full game
|
-115
|
2
|
|
Phill full game
|
BOS 1st 5
|
105
|
2
|
|
Phill full game
|
BOS full game
|
105
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
BOS 1st 5
|
114
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
BOS full game
|
114
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
BOS 1st 5
|
114
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
BOS full game
|
114
|
2
|
I wish I could say that I’m completely comfortable with all four of these teams, but when the Reds and Phils are two of the four, there’s good reason to be nervous. They should win, or at least that’s what the numbers are telling me.
As for the breakdowns, here are the first three. The wife’s draggin me out for shopping in a few minute, so I’ll have more later.
Have a great day all!
PITT @ CIN
Starting Pitchers: connor Overton (R) v luis Castillo (R)
After yesterday’s demoralizing 6-2 loss to these Pirates in a game that they desperately needed, the Reds now trail the Cards by 3 games with just 10 left to play. More and more, they are looking like a team that just isn’t good enough. Give the Pirates credit. Despite being one of the four worst teams in the league, they are still playing hard and may have killed the Red’s season yesterday.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
3.68
|
30
|
0.293
|
28
|
82
|
29
|
-98.3
|
29
|
8.7%
|
16
|
29.2%
|
30
|
29.2%
|
30
|
22.0%
|
6
|
CIN
|
4.80
|
9
|
0.324
|
7
|
97
|
13
|
42.3
|
8
|
8.9%
|
14
|
33.7%
|
2
|
33.7%
|
2
|
23.4%
|
15
|
Edge – CIN big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
0.495
|
20
|
1.36
|
21
|
4.47
|
21
|
70.8%
|
18
|
23.1%
|
20
|
11.0%
|
24
|
59.3%
|
27
|
50.0%
|
27
|
CIN
|
0.419
|
27
|
1.40
|
24
|
5.02
|
28
|
68.2%
|
27
|
26.6%
|
3
|
11.5%
|
28
|
67.5%
|
14
|
59.7%
|
14
|
Edge – PITT
Starting Pitchers
Connor Overton has appeared in 7 MLB games this season, three for the Pirates and 4 for the Blue Jays , with 6 out of the bullpen and 1 as a starter. He has yet to give up a run and has given up a total of 6 hits and 3 walks over 11.2 innings, while striking out 9. Granted, that’s a very small sample size, but so far so good. He has faced the Reds twice in the last 6 days. The first was his one start 6 days ago in PITT. He tossed 3 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits and a walk, while striking out 3. The second was one perfect inning out of the bullpen on Monday in which he notched another K.
Luis Castillo really struggled early on this season, and his full season numbers reflect that bad start. While only 18 of his31 starts grading as above average, with 1 grading as average, and 12 grading as below average, Castillo has now reeled off 17 above average starts in his last 20 outings. Over that span he has given up just 41 runs (38 earned) on 89 hits and 40 walks over 124 innings, while striking out 133. That’s comes out to a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.76 ERA over those 20 starts. In addition to a fine 24% K rate, Castillo is also generating an excellent 55.1% GB rate. However, his 9.2% walk rate is high, which is why his overall 1.35 WHIP and 4.08 ERA aren’t better, but his 3.61 xERA is almost a half a run lower than his ERA , as are his ERA metrics. The same pattern applies to Castillo’s .291 xwOBA which is 26 points lower than his ,317 wOBA. After a really rocky start, Castillo has been very good since and that includes outdueling Walker Buehler in a 3-1 win over the Dodgers in his last start.
The Reds should have a huge offensive edge in this game, and it should be even bigger than what the overall numbers suggest because the Reds hit much better at home. averaging 1.19 more runs per game at Great American. However, the Reds still have a crappy bullpen, so while the Pirates pen is far from elite, it is still better than what the Reds have. As for the two starting pitchers, I can’t say anything negative about Overton, other than that it is a very small sample size and that I would be very surprised if he continues pitching that well. This well be the third time that the Reds have seen him in the last 7 days. Castillo has been on an extended 20 start roll. I don’t trust the Reds not to lose this game, and even with Castillo, I don’t trust them enough to use them on a parlay card, but they should be better than the Pirates, and Castillo should be better than Overton.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
KC @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers: Carlos Hernandez (R) v Logan Allen (L)
Neither of these team is contending for anything. On Monday night, the Royals won 4-2, and last night it was the Indians winning 4-1 behind Cal WQuantrill.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
4.26
|
22
|
0.303
|
25
|
89
|
25
|
-51.7
|
25
|
7.0%
|
30
|
32.4%
|
13
|
32.4%
|
13
|
21.2%
|
3
|
CLEV
|
4.45
|
17
|
0.307
|
22
|
93
|
19
|
-31.8
|
22
|
7.9%
|
25
|
31.5%
|
22
|
31.5%
|
22
|
23.5%
|
17
|
Edge - CLEV close
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
KC
|
0.499
|
17
|
1.31
|
12
|
4.29
|
19
|
71.6%
|
14
|
23.6%
|
17
|
10.8%
|
23
|
63.8%
|
16
|
57.9%
|
16
|
CLEV
|
0.426
|
5
|
1.31
|
12
|
3.75
|
7
|
77.4%
|
1
|
25.8%
|
7
|
10.2%
|
18
|
66.1%
|
4
|
59.7%
|
4
|
Edge – CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Carlos Hernandez has only started 10 games for the Royals, and also made 12 appearances out of the Royals bullpen. Of those 10 starts, 7 graded as above average and just 3 graded as below average. In those 10 starts, Hernandez has given up 23 runs on 45 hits and 23 walks over 53.1 innings, with 37 Ks. His 1.28 WHIP and 3.88 ERA in those 10 starts are both decent, but his ERA metrics are more than a run higher. That’s probably because of his low .261 BABIP, along with his his low 16.8% K rate and hight 10.5% walk rate. However, his .294 wOBA is good. Hernandez (24) has a world of upside with frontline starter potential. He has shown flashes of what he could soon be, but hasn’t developed real consistency yet. Still, I love this kid’s e upside against a weak hitting Indians team.
Logan Allen has started 11 games for the Indians this season, with just 3 grading as above average and 8 grading as below average, including his last 2. In his 11 starts, Allen has given up 39 runs (36 earned) on 51 hits (12 HRs) and 16 walks over 44.1 innings, with 30 Ks. That left him with a very high 1.51 WHIP and 7.11 ERA. His 6.85 xERA and ERA metrics are all very high as well, as are his .378 wOBA, which is more than 60 point higher than league average, and his .386 xWOBA, which is even higher. Allen’s 15.2% K rate is also lousy, while his 8.1% walk rate is high for someone who doesn’t miss many bats. That doesn’t give him a much of a margin for error. There’s just nothing positive here.
Neither of these two offenses is very good, but they are very evenly matched so it’s very close. As for the two bullpens, the Indians do have the much better bullpen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. Carlos Hernandez has a tremendous upside and has shown flashes, but lacks experience and consistency, but his stuff is really good. By contrast, Logan Allen has shown nothing.
Pick – KC 1st 5 RL (+110 for 2 units)
BALT @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers: Keegan Akin (L) v Zack Wleeler (R)
The Phils still trail the Braves by 3 games in the NL East and are 4.5 games out in the NL wild card race. With just 11 games left to play, that is a precarious position to be in. The O’s remain one of the four worst teams in the league.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.15
|
26
|
0.307
|
22
|
92
|
22
|
-33.3
|
23
|
7.6%
|
26
|
30.8%
|
26
|
30.8%
|
26
|
24.2%
|
24
|
PHIL
|
4.62
|
11
|
0.316
|
12
|
95
|
16
|
3.3
|
14
|
9.4%
|
7
|
31.1%
|
24
|
31.1%
|
24
|
22.8%
|
11
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
0.483
|
28
|
1.47
|
29
|
5.72
|
30
|
65.0%
|
30
|
22.1%
|
27
|
10.2%
|
18
|
69.8%
|
29
|
65.9%
|
29
|
PHIL
|
0.506
|
25
|
1.40
|
24
|
4.73
|
25
|
70.5%
|
23
|
23.7%
|
15
|
9.8%
|
15
|
59.7%
|
19
|
50.8%
|
19
|
Edge – PHIL!
Starting Pitchers
Keegan Akin now has 16 starts under his bel, with just 4 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 11 grading as below average. Akin’s 1.61 WHIP and 6.93 ERA are both outrageously high, and while his 5.43 xERA and ERA metrics are all lower than his ridiculously high ERA, they are all over 5.00 and still lousy. That same pattern also applies to Akin’s .367 wOBA and .350 xwOBA. His WOBA is more than 50 points higher than league average, and his xwOBA isn’t much better. Akin’s 18.7% K rate is pedestrian and his 9.6% walk rate is very high for a guy who doesn’t miss that many bats. I want no part of Keegan Akin.
Zack Wheeler is having a great season and has put up some excellent numbers. He has started 26 games for the Phils with 19 above average outings, including 5 of his last 7, and just 7 below average ones, but two of them came in his last 3 starts. Wheeler sports a great 1.01 WHIP and 2.90 ERA. His ERA metrics are mostly a little lower than his ERA, and his .257 wOBA and .255 xWOBA are almost identical both around 60 points lower than league average. Wheeler also has an excellent 29.1% K rate, and combines it with a very good 50.7% GB rate and a low 5.1% walk rate. Wheeler is also coming off a rare poor start against the Rays, in which he gave up 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits (2 HRs) and 1 walk over 6 innings, but 10 Ks. I’ve always liked good pitchers coming off bad starts, but this was Wheeler’s second poor start in his last 3 and makes me question whether his league leading 176.2 innings might be catching up with him.
Offensively, the Phils are the much better team. As for the two bullpens, they are both garbage, but lets just say that the Phils have the better class od garbage. As for the two starting pitchers, that should be a mismatch. Zack Wheeler’s been great and Keegan Ahin has been,…well, Keegan Akin. I haven’t taken a Phils full game all season because of their shitty bullpen and maybe I shouldn’t here. The Phils pen is still shitty, just not as shitty as the O’s pen and the Phils are more likely to score more runs against a shitty pen, not to mention Keegan Akin, than the O’s will get gat off Zack Wheeler and a shitty Phils pen. Besides, Wheeler should go longer wich means we probably get less of the Phils pen.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays