HTN @ LAA
Starting Pitchers: Jose Urquidy (R) v Packy Naughton (L)
The Astros, who won yesterday in a 10-0 blowout, still lead the AL West by 7 games over the A’s with just 112 left to play, would have to blow it, not win the division, while the Angels can only look to next season.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
5.34
|
1
|
0.337
|
2
|
117
|
1
|
110.1
|
2
|
9.1%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
6
|
33.4%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
LAA
|
4.44
|
18
|
0.309
|
18
|
95
|
16
|
-20.8
|
18
|
7.4%
|
28
|
30.2%
|
28
|
30.2%
|
28
|
23.6%
|
18
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
0.438
|
14
|
1.28
|
11
|
3.90
|
9
|
73.1%
|
8
|
25.9%
|
6
|
10.1%
|
16
|
64.9%
|
24
|
58.6%
|
22
|
LAA
|
0.487
|
22
|
1.42
|
26
|
4.56
|
23
|
70.5%
|
21
|
23.7%
|
15
|
10.4%
|
20
|
63.8%
|
17
|
57.4%
|
17
|
Edge – HTN
Starting Pitchers
Jose Urquidy has started 17 games for the Astros with 12 grading as above average, including 5 of his last 7, 1 grading as average and just 4 grading below average. That is an impressive ratio. His 0/98 WHIP is excellent, with a good 3.38 ERA. However, Urquiddy’s 3.56 xERA is slightly higher than his ERA, and his ERA metrics are all close to a half a run higher. A low .241 BABIP and a mediocre 21.8% K rate might have something to do with that discrepancy. Urquidy’s .289 xwOBA is also a little higher than his .274 wOBA. Urquidy’s K rat may not be great, but his 4.8% walk rate is. The metrics seem to point to some mild regression for Urqiiddy, but nothing major.
Packy Naughton has made just 5 appearances this season, 2 out of the Angels bullpen and3 starts. I those 3 starts, Naughton gave up 7 runs on 14 hits and 5 walks over 11.1 innings. That comes out to a very high 1.68 WHIP, a 5.56 ERA and a .353 wOBA. Those are not numbers that I’m willing to bet on.
The Astros have the better offense and the better of two lousy bullpens. They also have the better starting pitcher. The Astros should win this one going away, as long as teir offense doesn’t go into one of those funks.
Pick HTN 1st 5 and fill game MLs in a few parlays.