LAD @ COL
Starting Pitchers: Julio Urias (L) v Antonio Senzatela (R)
The Dodgers have clinched an NL playoff spot, but still trail the Giants by just 1 game in the NL West. The Rockies have no playoff aspirations, but they are very good (45-27) at Coors.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.05
|
5
|
0.324
|
7
|
105
|
7
|
44.8
|
7
|
9.9%
|
2
|
35.2%
|
1
|
35.2%
|
2
|
22.9%
|
12
|
COL*
|
5.75
|
2
|
0.351
|
2
|
92
|
23
|
79.0
|
2
|
7.7%
|
25
|
33.0%
|
9
|
36.7%
|
1
|
19.2%
|
2
|
Edge – COL very close
*Since the Rockies hit so much better at home, I used home stats only for them.
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
0.480
|
3
|
1.19
|
3
|
3.20
|
2
|
73.6%
|
6
|
25.4%
|
10
|
10.4%
|
20
|
63.2%
|
10
|
57.1%
|
10
|
COL
|
0.562
|
25
|
1.44
|
27
|
5.01
|
27
|
69.5%
|
25
|
22.4%
|
23
|
11.0%
|
24
|
64.9%
|
26
|
58.7%
|
26
|
Edge – LAD big
Starting Pitchers
Julio Urias has now started 29 games for the Dodgers, after missing the minimal ten days after landing on the IL with a left calf contusion. He has delivering 22 above average starts, including his last 6, and 7 below average ones. He’s given up more than 3 runs just 6 times this season. His 1.03 WHIP and 2/99 ERA are both very good, and his 3.26 xERA and ERA metrics are all totally consistent with his ERA. Urias’s .269 wOBA and .277 wOBA are almost identical and are both much lower than league average. His 26.5% K rate is very good as well, particular when combined with his low 5.2% walk rate. Urias has faced the Rockies 3 times this season, giving up 10 runs (9 earned) on 17 hits and 4 walks over 18.2 innings, while striking out 15. That comes out to a 1.12 WHIP, but a 4.33 ERA. Now that he’s firmly planted in the Dodgers rotation, Urias is having a breakout season.
I’ve never really liked Antonio Senzatela. This season he has started 25 games with 12 above average starts, including his last 6, 1 aerage start, and 12 below average starts. Senzatela’s 1.29 WHIP and 4.06 ERA are both mediocre, 4.34 xERA and ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his ERA. Senzatela’s .319 wOBA and .317 xwOBA are both righ around league average. Senzatela doesn’t miss many bats. His 16.4% K rate is lousy, but he compensates for that by generating a 51.8% GB rate and limiting his walks (4.8%). Senzatella has actually pitched well in his 13 starts at Coors, posting a 1.19 WHIP and 3.89 ERA, but he has struggled against these Dodgers. In 3 starts against them, Senzatella has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 16 hits (3 HRs) and 4 walks over 13 innings. That comes out to high 1.53 WIP and 7.62 ERA. Senzatela is a pitch-to-contact type, so the only real chance he has is to keep the ball on the ground and let the Rockies defense do the work. That’s not a bad strategy when you’re pitching half of your games at Coors, but it also leaves Senzatela with a very small margin for error and the Dodgers hitters are good enough to fully exploit that.
When we factor in Coors, the offenses look pretty even, but the Dodgers have the clearly better bullpen and the clearly better starting pitcher.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in s series of parlays.