For what it’s worth, this has been the weirdest MLB season that I can remember. I’ve had some really exhilarating highs and some really depressing lows. Now with two weeks left in the regular season, I sitting almost exactly where I started, actually slightly worse, - 3.85 units for the season. As I get up there, I wonder if it’s really worth the effort and time. I still enjoy it, but I am getting tired of the daily grind.
I took a beating on both Friday and Saturday, but has a small winning day on Sunday. Yesterday was a good one. I used four teams the White Sox 1st 5, the Yankees 1st 5, The Astros 1st 5 and full game, and the Brave full game in a series of ML parlays. All of them cashed, with the exception of the White Sox who at least pushed. Unfortunately, my two side bets on the 1st 5 under in the Rangers/Yankees game, and the Blue Jays 1st 5. Both suffered from 5th inning meltdowns. The Yanks took a 4-0 lead into the 5th, but gave up three 5th inning runs to push the total over. The Jays took a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the 5th, but gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the 5th, turning a 2-0 win into a 3-2 loss. That left me +10.91 for the day.
We have a full slate today. Here’s the first two that I like.
KC @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers: Daniel Lynch (L) v Cal Quantrill (R)
Neither of these team is contending for anything. Last night, the Royals won 4-2.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
4.26
|
22
|
0.303
|
25
|
89
|
25
|
-51.7
|
25
|
7.0%
|
30
|
32.4%
|
13
|
32.4%
|
13
|
21.2%
|
3
|
CLEV
|
4.45
|
17
|
0.307
|
22
|
93
|
19
|
-31.8
|
22
|
7.9%
|
25
|
31.5%
|
22
|
31.5%
|
22
|
23.5%
|
17
|
Edge - CLEV close
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
KC
|
0.499
|
17
|
1.31
|
12
|
4.29
|
19
|
71.6%
|
14
|
23.6%
|
17
|
10.8%
|
23
|
63.8%
|
16
|
57.9%
|
16
|
CLEV
|
0.426
|
5
|
1.31
|
12
|
3.75
|
7
|
77.4%
|
1
|
25.8%
|
7
|
10.2%
|
18
|
66.1%
|
4
|
59.7%
|
4
|
Edge – CLEV
Starting Pitchers
Daniel Lynch has now made 13 MLB starts, with just 4 grading as above average, 1 grading as average, and 8 grading as below average, including his last 3. In those 13 starts, Lynch has given up 38 runs (35 earned) on 69 hits and 26 walks over 59 nnings, with 48, Ks. That’s 95 baserunners in just 49 innings! His 1.61 WHIP and 5.34 ERA are both very high and his 6.18 xERA is almpost a full run higher. Lynch’s ERA metrics, while slightly lower than his ugly ERA, are still bad. Now throw in a .357 wOBA that’s more than 40 points higher than league average and an even higher .370 xwOBA, a poor 17.8% K rate, and a high 9.7% walk rate, and you get the picture. This is not someone that I want to put money on.
I honestly did not expect much from Cal Quantrill this season, but there I was very wrong. Quantrill has started 20 games for the Indians this season, with 13 grading as above average, including 10 of his last 12, and 7 grading as below average. In those 20 stars, he has given 45 runs (38 earned) on 91 hits and 33 walks over 108.1 innings, with 86 Ks. That comes out to a solid 1.18 WHIP and 2.89 ERA. However, his 4.08 xERA and ERA metrics are all more than a run higher than his ERA. That’s at least partly due to Quantrill’s .262 BABIP, which is about 20 points lower than his career average. His .298 wOBA is a little lower than league average, as is his .308 xwOBA. Quantrill’s 19.5% K rate is mediocre and his 8% walk rate is relatively high for a guy who doesn’t miss that many bats. Still, despite the weak metrics, Quantrill has pitched remarkably well and a lot better than I ever expected.
These two offenses aren’t very good, but they are very evenly matched so it’s very close. As for the two bullpens, the Indians have the much better bullpen. That brings us to the two starting pitchers. If you believe in the metrics, Cal Quantrill is pitching way over his head, but any way that you cut it, he has certainly been better than Daniel Lynch .
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 RL (-103 for 2 units)
PITT @ CIN
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller (R) v Tyler Mahle (R)
The Reds are still fighting for the final wild card spot, but trail the Cards by 3 games with just 11 games to play. This is a must win game for them. The Pirates are one of the four worst teams in the league.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
3.68
|
30
|
0.293
|
28
|
82
|
29
|
-98.3
|
29
|
8.7%
|
16
|
29.2%
|
30
|
29.2%
|
30
|
22.0%
|
6
|
CIN
|
4.80
|
9
|
0.324
|
7
|
97
|
13
|
42.3
|
8
|
8.9%
|
14
|
33.7%
|
2
|
33.7%
|
2
|
23.4%
|
15
|
Edge – CIN big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
0.495
|
20
|
1.36
|
21
|
4.47
|
21
|
70.8%
|
18
|
23.1%
|
20
|
11.0%
|
24
|
59.3%
|
27
|
50.0%
|
27
|
CIN
|
0.419
|
27
|
1.40
|
24
|
5.02
|
28
|
68.2%
|
27
|
26.6%
|
3
|
11.5%
|
28
|
67.5%
|
14
|
59.7%
|
14
|
Edge – PITT
Starting Pitchers
Mitch Keller has started 20 games for the Pirates this season, with just 7 starts grading as above average and 13 grading as below average. That’s left him with a staggeringly high 1.74 WHIP and 6.14 ERA. Keller’s 5.64 xERA in about a half a run lower than his ERA, and his ERA metrics are all over a run lower than his bloated ERA, but still not very good. Keller’s .375 wOBA is a whopping 60 pints higher than league average and while at little lower, his .356 xwOBA is more than 40 points higher than league average. Keller’s 20.7% K rate is decent, but his 10% walk rate is high. His 41 walks in 88 innings come out to over a walk every other inning and is way too high. Between those 41 walks and the112 hits that he’s allowed, that’s 153 baserunners, and certainly explains the sky high WHIP and ERA. Keller may not be quite as bad as his superficial numbers says, but he certainly hasn’t been very good either.
Tyler Mahle has started 30 games for the Reds this season, with 19 grading as above average, including 4 of his last 5, and 11 grading as below average. That has left him with a solid 1.20 WHIP and 3.59 ERA. Mahle’s 3.80 xERA and ERA metrics are a little higher than, but still consistent with his ERA. Mahle’s .305 wOBA is a little lower than league average, and his .295 xwOBA is even a little better. Mahle’s 27.7% K rate is also very good, but his 8.2% walk rate is still a little high. Mahle has mostly pitched well this season, but he’s also been somewhat inconsistent, usually in the starts when I bet on him. That’s what I call “the law of perversity”. It sgould also be noted that Mahle has struggled a lot more at home this season, posting a very high 1.50 WHIP and 6.09 ERA, as well as a .375 wOBA at Great American. Mahle is still a quality starting pitcher, but less so at home. He just scares the hell out of me.
The Reds have a huge offensive edge in this game, and it’s even bigger than what the overall numbers suggest because the Reds hit much better at home. averaging 1.19 more runs per game at Great American. However, the Reds still have a crappy bullpen, so while the Pirates pen is far from elite, it is still better than what the Reds have. As for the two starting pitchers, Mahle hasn’t been good at home, but Keller hasn’t been good anywhere. I don’t trust the Reds, or Mahle at hom, e enough to use them on a parlay card, but they are better than the Pirates, especially offensively and I expect them to outhit the Pirates..
Pick – CIN 1st 5 RL (-103 for 1 unit) and CIB full game RL (+103 for 1 unit)