ATL@ SF
Starting Pitchers: Ian Anderson (R) v Logan Webb (R)
The Braves still hold a narrow 3 games lead over the Phils in the NL East, while the Giant now hold an even slimmer 1 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
4.87
|
8
|
0.323
|
9
|
99
|
12
|
35.7
|
9
|
9.4%
|
7
|
33.2%
|
5
|
23.7%
|
20
|
SFG
|
4.95
|
6
|
0.327
|
6
|
106
|
6
|
53.9
|
6
|
9.6%
|
4
|
31.8%
|
17
|
24.1%
|
23
|
Edge – SF small
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
0.509
|
15
|
1.34
|
18
|
4.22
|
18
|
72.0%
|
12
|
23.9%
|
16
|
9.4%
|
11
|
62.3%
|
15
|
54.0%
|
4
|
SFG
|
0.427
|
3
|
1.09
|
1
|
3.09
|
1
|
72.0%
|
12
|
22.7%
|
23
|
7.4%
|
1
|
66.7%
|
8
|
35.7%
|
27
|
Edge – SF
Starting Pitchers
Ian Anderson has started 21 games for the Braves this season with 13 that graded as above average, and 8 the graded as below average. Anderson’s 1.29 WHIP and 3.61 ERA are both solid, but his 4.35 xERA is ¾ of a run higher than his ERA and his ERA metrics are all close to a half a run higher as well. Anderson’s .297 wOBA is a little lower than league average, and his .317 xwOBA is a little higher than his actual one. Anderson’s 23% K rate is decent, but his 10.1% walk rate is high. The walks remain the big concern in Anderson’s profile, but his metrics all point to some regression.
Logan Webb has started 22 games for the Giants, with 14 grading as above average, including 7 of his last 8, 3 grading as average, and just 5 grading as average ones, and none since May 5. Webb’s 1.11 WHIP and 2.80 ERA are both very good. Webb’s 3.39 xERA is a little more than half a run higher than his ERA , but still good, while his ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his ERA. Webb’s .275 wOBA is almost 40 points lower than league average and his .282 xwOBA isn’t much higher. He generates a ton of GBs (61.1%) and doesn’t give up much hard contact. (28.1%) . His 26,2% K rate is fine, especially when combined with the GBs, and a decent 6.3% walk rate. Webb’s been on an impressive roll.
The Giants are coming off two straight losses and desperately need this game. The Braves obviously need the game too, but they have more of a margin for error. The offenses are close, but the pitching edge, both starting a relieg, goes to the Gaints, and I prefer to be on the team with the better pitching.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs on a series of parlays.