SD @ SF
Starting Pitchers: Jake Arreita (R) v Anthony DeSclafani (R)
The Giants became the first team to clinch a playoff spot with their 9-1 route of the Padres last night. The still lead the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. Teh Padres trail the Reds for the final NL wild card spot b just half a game.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
SDP
|
4.52
|
14
|
0.314
|
12
|
98
|
14
|
0.0
|
13
|
10.0%
|
2
|
32.2%
|
14
|
21.8%
|
5
|
SFG
|
4.94
|
7
|
0.327
|
6
|
106
|
6
|
53.9
|
6
|
9.6%
|
4
|
31.8%
|
17
|
24.1%
|
23
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
SDP
|
0.420
|
2
|
1.22
|
5
|
3.23
|
4
|
77.3%
|
1
|
25.1%
|
12
|
9.1%
|
7
|
70.2%
|
2
|
39.1%
|
23
|
SFG
|
0.427
|
3
|
1.09
|
1
|
3.09
|
1
|
72.0%
|
12
|
22.7%
|
23
|
7.4%
|
1
|
66.7%
|
8
|
35.7%
|
27
|
Edge – None
Starting Pitchers
I still can’t figure out what in the heel the Padres thought thy were doing when they picked up Jake Arrieta. They must have been really desperate. Why else would the pick up an over the hill Arrieta from the scrap heap, just days after the Cubs cut him. Arrieta was at one time an elite starting pitcher for the Cubs, but that was 5 seasons ago. Today, at 35, Arrieta is just a shadow of what he used to be. He started 20 games for the Cubs this season with just 6 above average outings and 13 below average ones, including his last 8. In his Padre debut at the Rockies, Arrieta gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and a walk in just 3.1 innings. His next start against the Astros was a little better, as he only gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and a walk over 5 innings. Arrieta’s 1.73 WHIP and 7.04 ERA are both horrendous. His 6.15 xERA and ERA metrics are lower, but still bad. Arritea’s .393 wOBA is almost 80 points higher than league average and his .369 xwOBA is still almost 60 points higher. Arrieta’s 18% K rate is mediocre, and his 9.2% walk rate is high leaving him with a lousy 80/41 K/BB ratio. Arrieta’s best days are long gone and they’re not coming back. He’s just a below average journeyman now trying to hang on a little longer and if the Padres think that they’re somehow going to catch lightening in a bottle with him, they’re delusional.
Anthony DeSclafani has been mostly very good for the Giants this season, with 16 of his 27 starts grading as above average, and 11 grading as below average, including 5 of his last 7. Over those last 7 starts, DeSclafani has given up 17 runs (16 earned) on 34 hits and 10 walks over 26.2 innings. That comes out to an ugly 1.65 WHIP and 5.40 ERA. DeSclafani’s overall 1.12 WHIP and 3.33 ERA are both very good, and would be even better if not for the Dodgers, who have lit him up for 22 runs on 33 hits and 15 walks over 27 innings. He did shut them out over 6 innings in his last start, but that still comes out to a horrendous 1.78 WHIP and 7.33 ERA in his 5 starts against them. DeSclafani’s 3.75 xERA and ERA metrics are all close to a half a run higher than his ERA, but they are all still decent and the same goes for his .296 xwOBA which is higher than his actual .276 wOBA, but still below league average. DeSclafani has obviously benefited from a low .266 BABIP, that is about 30 points lower than his career average and as that normalizes, we could see his ERA rise closer to where is metrics say it should be. DeSclafani has a decent, but hardly impressive 23.1% K rate, but he combines it with a solid 45.2% GB rate and a decent 6.9%walk rate. I expect that we are seeing some regression, but DeSclafani is still having a fine season.
With this Giant’s tam I still worry about going to the well once too often. I was tempted to take them last night, but passed because I’m never quite sure what to expect from an opener like Leone, and I also didn’t know wat to expect from Yu Darvish. The Giants have the better offense, and the two bullpens look evenly matched. As for the two starting pitchers, while DeSclafani has pitched all that well recently, he is certainly still much better and much more reliable than Jake Arrieta.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.
ARIZ @ LAD
Starting Pitchers: Luke Weaver (R) v Tony Gonsolin (R)
The Dodger won the first game of this series 5-1 last night in a game that saw the return of Clayton Kershaw. However they still trail the Giants by 2.5 games in the NL West. The D-backs are one of the four worst teams in the league.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
4.19
|
25
|
0.301
|
25
|
85
|
27
|
-58.6
|
25
|
8.9%
|
13
|
32.6%
|
11
|
23.7%
|
20
|
LAD
|
5.03
|
4
|
0.324
|
8
|
105
|
7
|
41.4
|
8
|
9.9%
|
3
|
35.2%
|
1
|
23.1%
|
12
|
Edge – LAD huge
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
0.688
|
30
|
1.53
|
30
|
5.27
|
29
|
65.5%
|
30
|
19.1%
|
30
|
9.2%
|
9
|
44.2%
|
29
|
64.8%
|
1
|
LAD
|
0.439
|
4
|
1.21
|
4
|
3.18
|
3
|
73.2%
|
6
|
25.3%
|
11
|
10.6%
|
21
|
62.9%
|
13
|
43.3%
|
19
|
Edge – LAD big
Starting Pitchers
Luke Weaver was just activated off the IL (shoulder) on Sept 1 and has made 2 starts since then. In his first start v the Padres, he gave up 1 run on 4 hits over 6 innings, with 3 Ks. In his next start, against the Rangers, he gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings, with 4 Ks. That’s a total of 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks over 10 innings. Before his injury, Weaver last pitched on May 16. He has started 10 games, with 5 grading as above average, including his last 2, and 5 grading as below average. His 1.14 WHIP is good, but his 4.24 ERA is mediocre. Weaver’s 4.44 xERA and ERA metrics are all fairly consistent with his ERA. While his .306 wOBA and .320 xWOBA are both right around league average. His 21.5% K rate is mediocre as well, but his 7/2% walk rate is decent.
Tony Gonsolin, who was placed on the IL on April 4 with right shoulder inflammation, has now made 10 starts this season, with 4 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 5 grading as below average. Gonsolin’s 1.47 WHIP is high, but his 2.79 ERA is very good. However his 3.78 xERA, while still decent, is about a full run higher than his ERA and his ERA metrics are even higher. That’s probably because of his very high 16.3% walk rate. Golsolin’s .306 wOBA is a little lower than league average and his .297 xWOBA is even a little lower. Gonsolin’s 26.2^ K rate is very good, but his 28 walks, combined with the 29 hits that he’s given up translate to 57 baserunners in just under 39 innings. I’d say that Gonsolin has been fortunate to have only given up 12 runs. It could have been much worse.
The Dodgers are the much better team. They have the vastly superior offense and even the much better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, I certainly can’t give the Dodgers the edge, but I’m not sure that the D-back have a big edge with Weaver. His two outings since returning from the IL were both solid, but they were against the Rangers and Padres, who are hardly in the Dodgers’ class offensively and their bullpen is just so bad. I’m betting the Dodgers score enough runs to win this with their bats.
Pick – LAD ML in a series of parlays.