For what it’s worth, yesterday was another very good day for me. It was a small card and I only liked three teams, the Marlins, the Cards and the Astros. I bet 1st 5s on all three games and the 1st 5 under in the STL/NYM game, and fill four cashed. I ended up +7.30 units for the day, leaving me +54.11 units for the month of September, and +78.97 units for the season. It’s been a strange season. Two days ago, I was barely on the winning side of the ledger. Now 48 hours later, I’m suddenly up big! There’s just no rhyme or reason to explain it.
Today’s card is again one with mostly very heavy favorites tha I consider too expensive to bet individually, so I’m going the parlay route fore the most part. Here is the card.
ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
-105
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
HTN full game
|
-105
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
OAK 1st 5
|
114
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
111
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
116
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
-112
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
HTN 1st 5
|
-110
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
HTN full game
|
-110
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
OAK 1st 5
|
108
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
106
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
SF full game
|
111
|
2
|
|
NYY full game
|
LAD full game
|
-117
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
OAK 1st 5
|
134
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
131
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
136
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
106
|
2
|
|
HTN full game
|
OAK 1st 5
|
133
|
2
|
|
HTN full game
|
SF 1st 5
|
130
|
2
|
|
HTN full game
|
SF full game
|
136
|
2
|
|
HTN full game
|
LAD full game
|
105
|
2
|
|
OAK 1st 5
|
SF 1st 5
|
152
|
2
|
|
OAK 1st 5
|
SF full game
|
159
|
2
|
|
OAK 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
125
|
2
|
|
SF 1st 5
|
LAD full game
|
122
|
2
|
|
SF full game
|
LAD full game
|
128
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
|
CIN 1st 5 RL
|
-120
|
2
|
I don’t expect another day like Sunday, but I will be looking to turn a profit.
Here are the early game write-ups.
CIN @ PITT
Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley (L) v Dillon Peters (L)
The Reds dropped two of three to the Card over the weekend, but are still barely hanging on to the second NL wild card by half a game over the Padres. The Pirates are going nowhere and along with the Rangers, Diamondback and Orioles rank among the four worst teams in baseball.
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CIN
|
4.87
|
9
|
0.328
|
4
|
101
|
9
|
58.9
|
4
|
9.0%
|
10
|
33.4%
|
3
|
23.5%
|
17
|
PIT
|
3.67
|
30
|
0.292
|
29
|
82
|
29
|
-95.3
|
30
|
8.5%
|
17
|
29.2%
|
30
|
22.3%
|
8
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
CIN
|
0.635
|
28
|
1.43
|
27
|
5.19
|
28
|
68.0%
|
27
|
26.3%
|
4
|
11.8%
|
29
|
61.3%
|
18
|
46.7%
|
13
|
PIT
|
0.544
|
21
|
1.38
|
21
|
4.56
|
23
|
70.4%
|
22
|
23.3%
|
19
|
11.2%
|
27
|
55.6%
|
25
|
43.8%
|
18
|
Edge – PITT
Starting Pitchers
Wade Miley has started 26 games for the Reds with 18 grading as above average, including his last 3 and 4 of his last 5. and just 8 grading as below average. Miley’s 1.25 WHIP and 2.89 ERA are both good, but might be somewhat misleading in that his 4.03 xERA is more than a full run higher than his ERA, as are most of his ERA metrics. Miley’s .301 wOBA and .306 xwOBA are both a little lower than league average, but Miley doesn’t miss a lot of bats, with a mediocre 18.8% K rate. However, he compensates by generating a very good 49.4% GB rate and combining it with a decent 7.3% walk rate. Miley is probably not as good as his ERA would suggest, but he usually keeps the Reds in games.
Dillon Peters has only started 4 games for the Pirates this season, with 1 grading as above average, 1 grading as average, and 2 grading as below average. He has given up 8 runs (7 earned) on 17 hits and 7 walks over 18.2 innings, with 15 Ks. That’s left him with a decent 1.20 WHIP and solid 3.38 ERA. However his 3.97 xERA is more than a half a run higher than his ERA, as are most ofr his ERA metrics. Peters’ 18.5% K rate is mediocre, while his 8.6% walk rate is high for someone who doesn’t miss than many bats. Over is career, Peters has started 28 games, posting a 7-10 record, with a high 1.57 WHIP. 5.45 ERA and 3.54 wOBA.
The Reds still have the better offense, even when we factor in how much worse they are away from Great American. The Pirate could well have the worst offense in baseball. The Pirates do have the better bullpen, but not not because they are any good. It’s just that the Reds pen is awful. As for the two starting pitchers, that not close. Miley may not be as good as his ERA, but he is clearly better than Peters. I don’t trust the Reds enough to parlay them and I won’t lay the -172 1st 5 that I saw this morning, so I’m laying the half a run and taking the 1st 5 RL.
Pick – CIN 1st 5 RL (
NYY @ BALT
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole (R) v Alexander Wells (L)
After getting swept by the Blue Jays over the weekend, the Yankees pulled out a dramatic 6-5 extra inning win over the Twins after falling behind 5-0 early. They are now tied with the Red Sox for the final AL wild card spot. The O’s are one of the four worst teams in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
4.39
|
20
|
0.314
|
12
|
99
|
12
|
2.3
|
12
|
10.5%
|
1
|
31.5%
|
22
|
24.5%
|
25
|
BAL
|
4.14
|
25
|
0.306
|
24
|
94
|
18
|
-31.6
|
22
|
7.5%
|
27
|
30.5%
|
27
|
23.9%
|
22
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
0.469
|
6
|
1.19
|
3
|
3.64
|
5
|
71.6%
|
16
|
26.2%
|
5
|
9.0%
|
6
|
65.6%
|
9
|
39.7%
|
21
|
BAL
|
0.638
|
29
|
1.42
|
26
|
5.34
|
30
|
66.3%
|
29
|
22.9%
|
21
|
10.3%
|
18
|
51.3%
|
28
|
45.0%
|
16
|
Edge – NYY
Starting Pitchers
Gerrit Cole now has 26 starts with 19 grading as above average, including 4 of his last 5, and just 7 grading as below average. His 0.99 WHIP and 2.78 ERA are both excellent, and both his 2.91 xERA and ERA metrics are all totally consistent with his ERA. Cole’s .258 wOBA is more than 50 points lower than league average and his .262 xwOBA is almost identical. Cole’s 34.7% K rate is elite and his 5.4% walk rate is also very low. Cole is having another outstanding season.
Alexander Wells has started just 4 games, with all 4 grading as below average. In those 4 starts, Wells has given up a total of 15 runs on 24 hits (4 HRs) and 7 walks over 17 innings, while striking out 15. That come out to an ugly 1.82 WHIP, 7.94 ERA, and .401 wOBA. Wels worked mainly as a starter in the minors this year, posting a 1.16 WHIP and 4.19 ERA in 43 AAA innings across 10 appearances, 8 of them starts). In two appearances out of the O’s bullpen earlier this season, Wells gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks over 4.2 Innings, with 1 K. It’s a very small sample size, but that’s at total of 40 baserunners in just under 23 MLB innings! That doesn’t bode well for Wells going forward.
This should be a mismatch. The Yankee offense isn’t good, but it should be better than the O’s offense. The Yanks bullpen hasn’t been as good as expected, but the O’s bullpen is atrocious. As for the two starting pitchers, Cole v Wells is a huge mismatch. That why the Yanks are -300 or more in both the 1syt 5 and full game.
Pick – NYY 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
HTN @ TEX
Starting Pitchers: Zack Greinke (R) v Jordan Lyles (R)
The Astros blew out the Rangers 15-1 last night and still lead the Mariners by 6.5 games in the AL West and with just 18 games left, that looks like a pretty safe lead. The Ranger are one of the four worst teams in baseball.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
5.25
|
3
|
0.335
|
2
|
117
|
1
|
93.7
|
2
|
9.0%
|
10
|
33.1%
|
6
|
19.4%
|
1
|
TEX
|
3.93
|
29
|
0.292
|
29
|
84
|
28
|
-93.1
|
29
|
7.3%
|
28
|
31.3%
|
23
|
23.3%
|
15
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
HOU
|
0.520
|
17
|
1.30
|
12
|
4.08
|
13
|
72.5%
|
8
|
25.8%
|
8
|
10.3%
|
18
|
59.6%
|
20
|
51.9%
|
6
|
TEX
|
0.539
|
20
|
1.35
|
19
|
4.20
|
17
|
69.8%
|
23
|
22.0%
|
28
|
9.6%
|
12
|
57.5%
|
23
|
58.8%
|
2
|
Edge – HTN
Starting Pitchers
Zack Greinke retutrns tonight (Covid) after not pitching since August 28. He has now started 27 games for the Astros this season, with 17 grading as above average, including 4 of his last 5, 2 grading as average, and 8 grading as below average. Greinke owns a good 1.15 WHIP and 3.66 ERA. However, his 4.23 xERA and ERA metrics are all more than a half a run higher than his ERA. That’s probably due to his poor 17% K rate which is more than 5% lower than his career rate, and his .266 BABIP , which is about 25 points lower than his career average. Greinke’s .304 wOBA and .313 xwOBA are both right around league average. Greinke’s biggest strength has always been that he doesn’t create problems by walking a lot of batters and that’s still the case as he’s sporting just a 5% walk rate. He’s also done a good job of limiting the long ball (25) and the hard contact (29.5%) At 37, Greinke is obviously facing some age-related decline and it’s shown up in some of his starts. He doesn’t throw very hard these days. His FB, which averaged over 92 mph over his career, now tops out at barely 89 mph. Greinke’s also not quite as consistent as he used to be, but his repertoire and his approach have helped him manage his decline and at least limit his risk.
While Jordan Lyles Lyles hasn’t been a complete disaster for the Rangers, he certainly leaves a lot to be desired. He has started 26 games for the Rangers, with more below average outings (14) than above average ones (10). Lyles’ 1.44 WHIP and 5.43 ERA are both high and his 5.65 xERA is even higher that his ERA, and his ERA metrics are all up there as well. Lyles .361 wOBA is more than 40 points higher than league average and his .356 xwOBA is almost as bad. Lyles’ 18.4% K rate is pedestrian and he’s not compensating with GBs either (35.2%). Aside from Lyles’ high WHIP, ERA, x ERA, metrics, wOBA and xWOBA, there’s also Lyles relatively high 7.4% walk rate, his 36 HRs allowed and high 39.2% hard contact rate. I’m always looking to fade Lyles and tonight is no different.
The Astros are the much better team, with the much better offense, and even though I don’t really like or trust it, the better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, I have serious reservations about Grainke, but he’s still better and more reliable than Lyles.
Pick – HTN 1str 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays
OAK @ KC
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas (R) v Jackson Kowar (R)
The A’s dropped two of three to the Rangers in OAK over the weekend. They now trail the Astros by an almost insurmountable 7 games in the AL West, but they are only 2.5 out in the AL wild card race. The Royals are not in contention, but they are very young and hungry and looking optimistically to next season.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
4.55
|
12
|
0.314
|
12
|
103
|
8
|
-1.4
|
14
|
8.9%
|
13
|
32.0%
|
15
|
22.4%
|
9
|
KCR
|
4.20
|
23
|
0.300
|
26
|
87
|
25
|
-59.9
|
26
|
7.0%
|
30
|
32.4%
|
12
|
21.4%
|
3
|
Edge – OAK
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV %
|
Rank
|
W %
|
Rank
|
KCR
|
0.506
|
14
|
1.31
|
14
|
4.34
|
20
|
72.6%
|
7
|
24.1%
|
14
|
10.8%
|
23
|
62.0%
|
17
|
46.9%
|
11
|
OAK
|
0.490
|
10
|
1.26
|
8
|
3.99
|
11
|
71.9%
|
14
|
20.4%
|
29
|
8.6%
|
5
|
58.6%
|
22
|
41.9%
|
20
|
Edge – OAK maybe
Starting Pitchers
Frankie Montas has started 28 games for the A’s this season, with 19 that graded as above average, including 11 of his last 13, 2 that graded as average, and just 7 that graded as below average. Montas’ 1.20 WHIP and 3.57 ERA are both good, and while his 4.00 xERA is almost a half a run higher than his ERA, his ERA metrics are all totally consistent with his ERA. Montas’ 26.7% K rate is very good and his 6.9% walk rate isn’t bad either. Early in the season, Montas didn’t pitch all that badly, but hadn’t pitched great either, but things have changed. He’s now got his splitter working again and he’s getting excellent results, with 12 quality starts in his last 13 outings, in which he’s given up just 21 earned runs on 58 hits and 26 walks over his last 86.2 innings. That comes out to a sensational 0.97 WHIP and 2.18 ERA over that span.
Jackson has only started 4 games for the Royals, so out sample size is very small, but of those 4 starts, 3 graded as below average with just 1 grading as above average. In those 4 starts, Kowar has give up 16 runs on 18 hit and 11 walks over 14 innings, while striking out 14. That come out to a whopping 2.07 WHIP, 7.07 ERA, and .393 wOBA. I sure as hell am not betting on that!
The A’s are the better team here. The have the clearly better offense. The numbers say that they also have the slightly better bullpen, but I’ve seen enough of this A’s bullpen to not trust them late in a game. As for the two starting pitchers, that looks like the bug mismatch is this game. Granted, it’s a very small sample size, but Jackson Kowar has looked awful. By contrast, Frankie Montas is on a roll and pitching as well as he ever has.
Pick – OAK 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
I’ll have write-ups on the late games (Padrs @ Giants and D-back @ Dodgers) later.
BOL all!