How in the hell do you not beat the living crap out of Eli Moran??? Everybody else has! This was a game the Jays needed and should have won easily. Instead they crapped all over themselves and me. I’m gonna need a great night to recover. I was/am concerned about the Yanks, but not the Jays. May lady luck send some my way tonight.
BALT @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
50+ GS
|
50- GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Lopez - R
|
43
|
(6/21)
|
(13/21)
|
1.68
|
6.19
|
5.31
|
4.98
|
4.39
|
4.61
|
0.373
|
0.349
|
20.4%
|
9.8%
|
NYY
|
Heaney - L
|
50
|
(10/18)
|
(8/18)
|
1.31
|
5.27
|
4.22
|
4.05
|
3.81
|
3.72
|
0.322
|
0.315
|
28.2%
|
7.7%
|
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
BALT
|
0.584
|
24
|
1.18
|
3
|
4.87
|
25
|
69.1%
|
24
|
22.4%
|
26
|
8.2%
|
3
|
16
|
14
|
18
|
19
|
NYY
|
0.489
|
11
|
1.38
|
21
|
3.82
|
11
|
70.1%
|
19
|
24.8%
|
14
|
9.8%
|
15
|
24
|
14
|
24
|
19
|
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.19
|
21
|
0.303
|
23
|
92
|
19
|
-37.6
|
19
|
7.6%
|
28
|
24.1%
|
19
|
30.1%
|
29
|
NYY
|
4.11
|
25
|
0.317
|
13
|
101
|
12
|
-3.9
|
13
|
10.9%
|
1
|
24.4%
|
21
|
31.2%
|
23
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Orioles split a four-game series with the Tigers over the weekend, but are still 30 games below .500 and firmly entrenched at the bottom of the AL East 26 games behind the Rays. By contrast, the Yanks swept the Marlins in MIA, but still scored only 10 runs, while giving up just 4. They now trail the Rays by 7 games.
Offensively, the Yanks haven’t been very good. They did add Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline, but Gallo has struggles in his 3 games with the Yanks, going just 1 for 15. Rizzo, however has already contributed 5 hits in his a3 Abs as a Yankee with 2 HRs, 5 runs scored and 2 RBIs. As bad as the Yanks have been, the O’s have been even worse, with a lower wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and walk rate.
As for the two bullpens, while the Yanks pen hasn’t been as good as most expected, but it still ranks as an above average unit, while the O’s pen ranks as below average in most categories.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and I am giving that edge to the Yanks even with Andrew Heaney on thill v Jorge Lopez.
Lopez is still almost always a fade for me. He has started 21 games for the Orioles this season and has delivered more than twice as many below average starts (13) as above average ones (6). He now sits with a sky-high WHIP and ERA, and while Lopez’s ERA metrics aren’t quite as high as his ERA, they are all still really bad and his wOBA and expected wOBA are both significantly higher than league average. Lopez has a decent K rate is decent, but he’s walked 43s, and when you add in the 118 hits that Lopez has given up, it comes out to a whopping 161 baserunners over just 96 innings. That’s a huge problem and certainly explains Lopez’s very ugly numbers.
Heaney started 18 games for the Angels before getting traded to the Yankees at the trade deadline, with 10 that graded as above average, including his last 2 and 3 of his last 4, and 8 that graded as below average. Heaney’s WHIP is mediocre and his ERA is very high, but his ERA metrics are all more than a full run lower than his ERA. That may have something to do with his 67.6% strand rate which is 5% lower than his career rate. All that tells me that Heaney is actually pitching better than his ERA would suggest. Heaney’s wOBA is slightly higher than league average, but his expected wOBA is actually a little lower than his actual one. His K rate is excellent and his walk rate’s not excessively high. The truth is that Heaney has pitched pretty well more often than not, but has struggled with onsistency from one start to another. The change of scenery should help, as should the fact that he’ll be ptcing for a better team and pitching half of his games, including tonight’s contest, in lefty friendly Yankee Stadium.
They Yanks are the better team here in every respect, and they still believe that they are in the playoff hunt and I am inclined to agree. The O’s are just playing out the string.
Pick #1 – Parlay: NYY 1st 5 + SF 1st 5 (+137 for 2 units)
Pick #2 – Parlay NYY 1st 5 + SF ML (+130 for 2 units)
Pick #3 – NYY ML + SF 1st 5 ML (+118 for 2 units)
Pick $4 – NYY NL + SF ML (+112 for 2 units)
NYM @ MIA
STarting pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
NYM
|
Megill - R
|
57
|
(5/7)
|
(2/7)
|
1.10
|
2.04
|
2.32
|
3.44
|
3.89
|
3.77
|
0.266
|
0.236
|
27.1%
|
7.6%
|
MIA
|
Luzardo – L
|
43
|
(2/6)
|
(4/6)
|
1.66
|
6.87
|
5.00
|
6.08
|
4.66
|
4.35
|
0.388
|
0.340
|
23.1%
|
9.2%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
NYM
|
0.500
|
12
|
1.29
|
11
|
4.01
|
13
|
74.5%
|
6
|
25.1%
|
11
|
10.6%
|
19
|
29
|
14
|
29
|
16
|
MIA
|
0.439
|
3
|
1.39
|
22
|
3.43
|
4
|
71.1%
|
24
|
23.3%
|
22
|
9.7%
|
13
|
18
|
18
|
21
|
22
|
Edge – NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
3.82
|
29
|
0.308
|
17
|
96
|
16
|
-30.6
|
17
|
8.9%
|
13
|
23.8%
|
17
|
32.0%
|
18
|
MIA
|
3.90
|
27
|
0.296
|
28
|
89
|
25
|
-52.4
|
25
|
7.9%
|
24
|
26.0%
|
26
|
30.3%
|
28
|
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: The Mets dropped two of three to the Reds over the weekend, but still lead the NL East by 3.5 games over the Phils. The Marlins got swept by the Yanks, scoring just 4 runs in the process, and now sit in the division cellar, 11.5 games behind the Mets.
Offensively, these are two truly lousy team, but of the two, the Marlins are worse, despite scoring 0.08 more runs per game, and now they tradd Marte at the deadline.. The Mets hold all the other offensive edges.
As for the two bullpens, on paer they look pretty damned even, but that was before the Marlins traded their closer Gacia to the Astros. I think that gives the Mets the edge.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and there I give the Mets an edge with Tylor Megill v Jesus Luzardo.
Megill has now started 7 games for the Mets with 5 grading as above average, including his last 3, and 2 grading as below average. He has given up 8 runs on 28 hits and 11 walks over 35.1 innings, while striking out an impressive 39. Megill has an excellent WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his ERA. His wOBA is 48 points lower than league average and his expected wOBA is 30 points lower than his actual one. Megill also has a solid K rate and he combines it with a solid 44.6% GB rate, so there is some real upside there, but it is still a very small sample size and his 93% strand rate won’t last, so we could see some regression, as that normalizes.
Jesus Luzardo started 6 games for the A’s early in the season, with just 2 grading as above average and 4 grading as below average, before being relegated to the A’s bullpen. This season Luzardo posted a very high WHIP and ERA, with eRA that weren’t very far behind. His wOBA and expected wOBA are both around league average, and he has a great K rate and decent walk rate. I honest;y can’t figureoutit exactly why he struggled so much in OAK. This kid looked like a legitimate top prospect with upper-90s gas, perhaps the best slider in the minors, and impressive command for someone with such a high-effort delivery. Granted he also comes with an injury history, but son’t most young pitchers these days?
The Marlins have given up on the season. They traded their best hitter and their closer at the trade deadline and will remain at the bottom of the NL East for the rest of the season. The Mets are all in and added SS Javier Baez among others, but they will probably need a healthy Jacob deGrom .to close the deal.
In this game, the Mets should be the better team across the board. Luzardo scares me because he has all that talent and I suppose he could harness it for a night, but this season Megill’s been the better pitcher.
Pick – NYM 1st 5 RL (-105 for 2 units)