For what it’s worth, yesterday was the exact opposite of Saturday. Saturday was a terrible day for me when almost everything went wrong. Jaime Barria, of all people, shut out the A’s! The Marners blew a 2-0 lead early and then blew a 4-3 lead in the 10th to lose to the Rangers, now arguably the worst team in baseball. The Braves beat up on Brandon Woodruff, who came in with just two poor starts all season. And finally, the Padres again embarrassed by the Rockies again, at home. The only thing that didn’t go wrong was the White Sox not implode until the 6th, when I had them on a 1st 5. The Jays also won, but since I parlayed them with the Padres, I got nothing for the win.
By contrast, yesterday I only placed three bets, but won them all. I had the Phils 1st 5 RL. Kyle Gibson was masterful in his PHIL debut and the PHILs’ hitters teed off on the Pirates pitchers, putting up 15 runs on 20 hits and 7 walks. I also had the Blue Jays RL. Jose Berrios was outstanding in his debut with the Jays in a 5-1 win. Finally, I had one ML parlay with the Jays and the Dodgers. In the Dodger/D-backs game, Julio Urias tossed five scoreless innings and the Dodgers scored 13 runs in a 13-0 blowout win.
I finished the day +6.33 units for the day and the month of August, and +30.04 units for the season.
Let’s move on to today. We don’t have a lot of games, but there are a few that I like including the afternoon game between the Indians and the Jays. I’m using the Jays along with the Giants in a series of ML parlays. Here’s the parlay card:
Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
114
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
SF full game ML
|
108
|
2
|
|
TOR full game ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
120
|
2
|
|
TOR full game ML
|
SF full game ML
|
114
|
2
|
Here my breakdown of the afternoon game.
CLEV @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
3:07
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CLEV
|
Morgan - R
|
39
|
(1/7)
|
(6/7)
|
1.37
|
7.47
|
5.60
|
6.19
|
4.41
|
4.03
|
0.396
|
0.357
|
24.1%
|
3.7%
|
TOR
|
Ray – L
|
58
|
(15/20)
|
(5/20)
|
1.07
|
3.04
|
3.69
|
3.96
|
3.32
|
3.22
|
0.296
|
0.296
|
31.3%
|
6.5%
|
Edge – TOR big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
CLEV
|
0.445
|
5
|
1.27
|
9
|
3.58
|
7
|
76.8%
|
3
|
25.1%
|
11
|
10.5%
|
18
|
26
|
12
|
22
|
17
|
TOR
|
0.506
|
13
|
1.45
|
26
|
4.10
|
14
|
72.8%
|
10
|
26.7%
|
6
|
12.0%
|
28
|
16
|
12
|
18
|
21
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.28
|
19
|
0.299
|
26
|
86
|
27
|
-55.9
|
26
|
7.7%
|
26
|
23.8%
|
17
|
31.7%
|
20
|
TOR
|
5.16
|
2
|
0.336
|
1
|
112
|
2
|
46.4
|
3
|
7.9%
|
24
|
21.5%
|
2
|
32.3%
|
12
|
Edge – TOR big
Conclusion: The Indians dropped two of three to the AL Central leading White Sox over the weekend and now sit 9 games back. The Jays returned to their true home and celebrated by sweeping the Royals by a combined 15-5 score, but still trail the Rays by 8 games in the AL East.
Offensively, this should be a mismatch. The Indians have a well below average offense and continue to struggle to score runs. By contrast, the Rays possess a formidable top 3 offense that just put up 15 runs in their three games against the Royals.
As for the two bullpens, the Indians’ bullpen has been solid all season, while the Jays per has been pretty mediocre, but now the Jays just acquired former Nats closer Brad Hand, which should give their pen a huge boost.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and today I give the Jays a huge edge with Robbie Ray v Eli Morgan.
Morgan has now started 7 games for the Indians and just one graded as above average, with the other 6 grading as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both very high and his ERA metrics, while lower than his ghastly ERA are still bad. The same goes for his sky wOBA, which is around 80 points higher than league average and his lower but still high expected wOBA. Now, when we throw in his 11 HRs in just over 37 innings and a high 36% hard contact rate, Morgan just doesn’t look ready for the bigs.
Ray has been a really pleasant surprise for the Jays. He has now started 20 games this season, with 15 grading as above average, including 10 of his last 12, and just 5 grading as below average. Ray’s WHIP and ERA are both very good and while his ERA metrics are mostly a little higher than his ERA, that’s probably because of his very high 90.8% strand rate, which is close to 15% higher than Ray’s career rate. His wOBA is about 20 points lower than league average and his expected wOBA is identical to his actual one. Ray’s K rate is elite and his walk rate is the lowest of his career, 4% lower than his career rate. That’s pretty remarkable for a guy who has always struggled with his control. There are still a few concerns. The first is the 23 HRs that Ray has surrendered. The second is a .266 BABIP, which is still about 40 points lower than his career average. We could see some regression on that front. The third is a fairly high 36% hard contact rate. As those numbers normalize, we could see some regression down the road, nothing drastic, but regression nonetheless.
The Jays believe they can be a playoff team this season and I an inclined to agree. By contrast, the Indians are on the verge of falling out of contention. The Jays have the much better offense and much better starting pitchers. Yes the Indians probably have the better bullpen, but the acquisition of Hand certainly narrows the gap.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 and full game ML in a series of parlays with the Giants.