I'm now 5-3 on posted MLB plays this season. Here's a total I'm on this afternoon. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone!
Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays
My Pick: Cleveland Indians/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9 (-120)
There are several reasons I like the over in this game. First, let's take a quick look at the Blue Jays. Toronto has been much heavier towards the over as home favorites this year as opposed to home underdogs. As a home dog, they're just 5-7 Over/Under. As a home favorite, that record flips to 19-13-3 Over/Under. Surprising as it may sound, the Blue Jays have been a home favorite of -200 or more thirteen times versus six different teams (and own a solid SU record of 10-3 in that spot). Throughout those games, they've scored 4+ every single time and 5+ in eleven of thirteen. They're 8-4-1 Over/Under and each of the four under games came against well-below .500 teams - Baltimore, Texas and Kansas City. The other three teams with records similar or better than Cleveland (Philadelphia, Seattle and Boston) scored 7, 9, 3, and 8.
Next, let's take a quick look at the Indians. Whether it's coming off a loss or a win, Cleveland has been a bit heavier towards the over this year. After a loss, they're now 27-21-2 Over/Under. When playing interleague games this season the Indians over/under record is just 8-8, but when playing teams in the same league (like today), they rank third heaviest in over percentage (behind Houston & Minnesota) with a 48-35-3 Over/Under record. Cleveland has only been a road dog of +200 or more twice this season versus two different teams (and own a 1-1 SU record in that spot). Throughout those games, they've scored at least 4 runs in each and allowed at least 4 runs in each with games totaling 9 versus Houston and 10 versus the White Sox. You'd have to go all the way back to 2012 to see the last seven times Cleveland has been a road dog of +200 or more, but in that span they're now 6-1 Over/Under.
Eli Morgan will be on the mound for Cleveland and he's played three road games with the Indians, including one of those +200 games which he won 5-4 versus Houston. In his two other road games, totals have been 9 versus Oakland and 8 which came in an interleague matchup versus the Cubs. He owns a 6.00 ERA away from home field and has allowed 14 H and 10 ER through just 15.0 IP. His team has both scored and allowed 4+ in each of the two league games he started. On the other side, it'll be Robbie Ray on the mound for Toronto and he's started nine home games with the Blue Jays this year, including three of those -200 games where he lost 7-4 versus Boston, won 10-2 versus Texas, and won 9-3 versus Seattle. He's had excellent run support this year with Toronto scoring 4+ in six of nine. The three games his team was unable to reach the 4 run mark in were divisional games against the Rays and Yankees. His Blue Jays have also given up at least 3 runs in all but two of those games - against well-below .500 teams Miami and Texas.
Assuming the Blue Jays remain a -200 or higher favorite and the Indians remain a +200 or higher dog, I really like this over. The line is pretty high right now and I like the total where it is (9), so I'm taking my chances and betting this one early. On another note, although it would probably have to be an alternate line team total for a parlay, I also love the Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 4 here as well..