Red Sox/Rays Over 8.5 (-120)
How many matchups do we need before we consider a trend more than just noise?
These two franchises are each heavily reliant on scouting and analytics, and neither team's pitching staff has been able to solve the puzzle of the opposing teams' offense in recent years. Over the past three seasons, Totals in this matchup are 25-11 (70%) to the OVER including 7-1 this season.
Meanwhile, the average total in this match-up is the same this season (8.9) - as it has been each of the last four. So it looks like the market has given 0 credence to this trend.
Given the unique signature of these team's roster construction, particularly the Rays, I do think there is signal here, rather than just noise.
Over most teams, the Rays have a scouting advantage and a pitching depth advantage. Tampa employs its plethora of different pitches to maximize strategic match-ups over teams generally less accustomed to facing so many pitching changes. The Red Sox, however, have as much familiarity with these Rays pitchers as any team in the MLB, not to mention having a laudable analytics department of their own.
The Red Sox batters are simply not fooled by the Rays; and vice versa. Hence, the 70% Overs in the matchup in recent years.
And I don't see any reason to believe this trend will reverse itself in tonight's match-up. Neither team tonight is putting their best foot forward from a pitching standpoint.
The Red Sox start Nick Pivetta is off three consecutive shellings, and he already is a player with a career ERA of over 5 in over 500 career IP. Not the guy kinda starter we would associate with an 8.5 total.
What's worse for Boston is that their relief staff - while ranked top 10 over the course of the season - has been strained as of late because of how bad the Red Sox starting rotation has been since the All-Star break. Over the past 6 games, Boston’s starters have posted an 8.33 ERA, lasting on average only 5 innings per game over that span (MassLive.com).
Tampa trots possibly their worst regular starter in Shane McClanahan. The rookie McClanahan is only getting more and more tape out there for other analytics crews and hitting staffs to explore and exploit.