For what it’s worth, yesterday was a terrible day for me. Almost everything went wrong. Jaime Barria shuts out the A’s! The Marner blow a 2-0 lead early and then blow a 4-3 lead in the 10th to lose to arguably the worst team in baseball. The Braves beat up Brandown Woodruff, who came in with just two poor starts all season. And finally, the Padres get embarrassed by the Rockies again at home. Fortunately, the White Sox didn’t imp;ode until the 6th so I cashed my 1st 5 on them. The Jays also won, but I parlayed them with the Padres, so I got nothing for the win. That left me -6.37 units for the day, -211.58 units for the month of July, and +23.71 units for the season.
Let’s move on to today. It’salso family day, so there will be no detailed write yups today. There’s very little that I like so this shouldn’t take long.
Here are two early games that I do like and I'll be back with the Dodgers/D-bcks in a bit.
PHIL @ PITT
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson v Mitch Keller
The Phils lost the first two games of this series3-2 and 7-0, and looked really bad in doing so. Still, they are only 4.5 games back in the weak NL East and 3.5 out in the NL Wild Card race. By contrast, the Pirates still sit firmly at the bottom of the NL Centra, 21.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
Offensively, the Phils are very mediocre, but that still makes them way better than the inept Pirates, who just might have the worst offense in the league. As for the two bullpens, it’s the Pirates with the mediocre pen that still has performed better better than the Phils wretched pen, but the Phils did add closer Ian Kennedy from the Rangers, so maybe there’s some hope for improvement.
As for the two starting pitchers, Gibson, who the Phils just added, was a huge disappointment for the Rangers in 2020, but, until recently, had been surprisingly good this season after developing and incorporating a cutter into his arsenal. His overall numbers are still very good, with 14 above average starts and just 5 below average ones. Gibson’s 1.18 WHIP and 2.87 ERA are both very goos, but his ERA metrics are all higher than his ERA, but still decent. However, he has struggled in his last 3 starts giving up 16 runs on 22 hits and 12 walks over his last 23 innings. Will a new and better team and a playoff race turn him around? Possibly. He may no be as good as he showed early this season, but he should be good enough to beat the woeful Pirates.
Keller has started 12 games for the Pirates this season, but hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since June 10. He struggled this season with just 5 starts that graded as above average and 7 that graded as below average. That left him with a very high 1.80P and 7.04 ERA. Keller’s ERA metrics are all lower than his bloated ERA, but still not very good and neither is his 9/6% walk rate.
I have more faith in Gibson than I do in Keller, so for 5 innings…
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 RL (-109 for 2 units)
KC @ TOR
Starting Pitchers: Brad Keller v Jose Berrios
The Jays, who finally got to play in TOR, celebrated by beating the Royals again yesterday 4-0 after winning 6-4 lon Friday night. and now trail the Rays by 8 games. The Royals, who are now 13 games below .500, now train the White Sox by 15 games, with no realistic shot at making the playoffs.
Offensively, the Jays have one of the best offenses in baseball, while the Royals rank in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. As for the two bullpens, both have been mediocre this season, but of the two, the Jays pen has performed marginally better than the Royals pen and now the Jays just acquired former Nats closer Brad Hand, which should give their pen a huge boost.
That brings us to the two starting Pitchers.
Brad Keller has really struggled so far this season. He has started 21 games for the Royals with just 09above average outings and 12 that graded as below average, but 4 of the above average starts were his last 4. In those 4 starts he has given up just 7 runs on 19 hits and 10 walks over 27 innings, with 26 Ks. His overall WHIP is still very high as is his ERA, ERA metrics, wOBA and expected wOBA, but his last 4 starts have been a hell of a lot better.
Berrios started 204 games for the Twins this season, before the trade that delivered him from MINN with 15 grading as above average and just 5 grading as below average. His 1.04 WHIP and 3.48 ERA are both good, and while Berrios’ ERA metrics are mostly a little higher than his actual ER, they are still very solid. Berrios’ 25.7% K rate is also solid, particularly when combined with his 43.6% GB rate, and not overly high 6.5% walk rate. Berrios is having another good season, and should help the Jays enomously down the stretch.
Pick #1 – PARLAY TOR ML and LAD ML (-105 for 3 units)
Pick #2 – TOR RL (-122 for 2 units)