I'm now 4-3 on posted MLB plays this season. Here's an underdog I'm going with this afternoon. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL everyone!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
My Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+137)
Personally, I think there's some value in taking Milwaukee as an underdog this afternoon. They currently hold the best record in the league as road dogs with a 16-7 record and the Braves are a much better team after a loss than after a win. Atlanta owns the 5th best record in the league after a loss this season (29-21), but then ranks sixth worst in the league after a win (22-28). The Braves are also a below .500 team as home favorites, sitting at 21-22 (only the Twins and Orioles have lower win percentages at home as a favorite). On top of that, when it comes to divisional games the Brewers have been hot this year - owning a 30-17 record. Only the Astros have a better record in those types of games (30-14) and once again, the Braves are barely above .500 sitting at 28-27. Morton has received great run support at home, but the Braves are 1-2 his last three starts and 7-5 this year (6-5 as a favorite). On top of that, they've now allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last three starts. In fact, the Braves have given up at least 4 runs in nine of his twelves home starts all season. Meanwhile, Brett Anderson and his Brewers are now 5-2 his last seven road starts and 6-4 this year (5-3 as underdogs). They've shutout the last two opponents he's faced (Pirates & Mets) and teams have been limited to 3 or less in six of ten all season. Morton and his Braves can score some runs at home, but I'm hoping Anderson and his Brewers will either keep them limited or hang right there with them this afternoon. After all, the Brewers have put up some runs (9 & 5) in each of his last two road starts. So, as I said before, I can't help but feel like there's some value in this +137 underdog today..