For what it’s worth, yesterday was a strange night. My earliest bets on the Phils, , and Yankees all lost. My second group of bets on the Brewers, Mariners and White Sox all won. At that point, I should have stopped and left well enough alone. Had I done that, I would have been up about half a unit, but I didn’t do that. I took a shot on the Giants and Kevin Gausma and that lost. I also parlayed the Dodgers and Padres, and they both lost. That left me -4.59 units for the day, 5.21 units for the month of July, and +30.08 units for the season.
Let’s move on to today. There’s not all that much that I like.
KC @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
3:07
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
KC
|
Minor – L
|
50
|
(11/21)
|
(8/21)
|
1.28
|
5.32
|
4.39
|
4.10
|
4.34
|
4.21
|
0.322
|
0.321
|
23.0%
|
7.2%
|
TOR
|
Manoah - R
|
55
|
(5/8)
|
(2/8)
|
1.07
|
2.90
|
3.33
|
4.25
|
3.98
|
3.55
|
0.287
|
0.282
|
31.0%
|
8.9%
|
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
KC
|
0.543
|
19
|
1.35
|
17
|
4.76
|
23
|
73.1%
|
8
|
25.7%
|
9
|
9.7%
|
13
|
23
|
15
|
17
|
18
|
TOR
|
0.506
|
13
|
1.45
|
26
|
4.10
|
14
|
72.8%
|
10
|
26.7%
|
6
|
12.0%
|
28
|
16
|
12
|
18
|
21
|
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
KC
|
4.18
|
23
|
0.304
|
22
|
90
|
22
|
-38.6
|
20
|
7.4%
|
29
|
22.1%
|
5
|
32.3%
|
12
|
TOR
|
5.16
|
2
|
0.336
|
1
|
112
|
2
|
46.4
|
3
|
7.9%
|
24
|
21.5%
|
2
|
32.3%
|
12
|
Edge – TOR big
Conclusion: The Jays, who finally got to play in TOR, celebrated by beating the Royals 6-4 last night. and now trail the Red Sox by 8.5 games. The Royals, who are now 12 games below .500, now train the White Sox by 15 games, with no realistic shot at making the playoffs.
Offensively, the Jays have one of the best offenses in baseball, while the Royals rank in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories.
As for the two bullpens, both have been mediocre this season, but of the two, the Jays pen has performed marginally better than the Royals pen and now the Jays just acquired former Nats closer Brad Hand, which should give their pen a huge boost.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers.
Mike Minor has been surprisingly effective in his 21 starts with the Royals, with 11 grading as above average, 2 grading as average and 8 grading as below average. His WHIP is decent, but his ERA is very high. However, Minor’s ERA metrics are all about a run lower than his sky-high ERA, but still very mediocre, A 63.3% strand rate that is about 10% lower than his career rate is certainly a factor there and as it normalizes we could see Minor’s ERA come down to where his metrics say it should be. His wOBA is slightly higher than league average and almost identical to his expected wOBA. His K rate is fine and his walk rate is not bad. Last season, to put it charitably, Minor struggled badly. That’s clear when you look at his numbers,and getting traded from the Rangers to the A’s did not change that. Still, he is just a season removed from starting 32 games for the Rangers and producing a 14-10 record with 17 good starts and 12 poor ones, with a 1.24 WHIP and 3.59 ERA. Minor’s not bad enough to automatically fade, and he’s not good enough to consistently bet on him. Thank makes him unpredictable and dangerous.
As for Alek Manoah, we still have a very small sample size to base anything on. Manoah has just 8 starts under his belt, but 5 of them graded as above average, 1 graded as average, and just 2 graded as below average. He has given up a total of 16 runs (13 earned) on 28 hits (7 HRs) and 15 walks over 40.1 innings, while striking out 52. His WHIP and ERA are both very good, and his xER isn’t tht much higher than his actual one. However, Manoah’s ERA metrics are all higher than his excellent ERA. That’s probably because of his low .233 BABIP. As that normalizes, we could see Manoah’s ERA rise closer to where his metrics say it should be. Manoah is striking out well over a better per inning, but 15 walks in just over 40 innings is still high.
Manoah certainly looks like a keep with a bright future and the numbers say that he is the better pitcher in this matchup, but Minor always cares me because he’s so damned unpredictable, but in every other respect, the Jays are the better team and since no one is running away with the AL East, they still believe they are in the division and playoff hunt and I agree. The price is too steep for my taste, but I will use the Jays in a ML parlay.
Pick – PARLAY: TOR ML + SD ML (+119 for 2 units)
OAK @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
4:05
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
OAK
|
Irvin - L
|
55
|
(11/20)
|
(9/20)
|
1.19
|
3.62
|
4.49
|
3.60
|
4.66
|
4.60
|
0.298
|
0.324
|
17.2%
|
4.3%
|
LAA
|
Barria - R
|
56
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
1.38
|
6.23
|
6.28
|
6.00
|
6.61
|
6.64
|
0.326
|
0.375
|
9.1%
|
12.7%
|
Edge – OAK
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
OAK
|
0.475
|
9
|
1.32
|
15
|
3.76
|
10
|
72.6%
|
11
|
24.1%
|
15
|
9.3%
|
12
|
25
|
15
|
18
|
11
|
LAA
|
0.580
|
23
|
1.34
|
16
|
4.82
|
24
|
70.9%
|
16
|
23.1%
|
23
|
9.1%
|
9
|
25
|
17
|
22
|
18
|
Edge – OAK
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
OAK
|
4.42
|
15
|
0.312
|
16
|
102
|
9
|
10.9
|
10
|
8.9%
|
13
|
23.3%
|
13
|
31.7%
|
19
|
LAA
|
4.81
|
8
|
0.324
|
8
|
107
|
5
|
29.7
|
5
|
7.0%
|
30
|
22.9%
|
10
|
30.6%
|
26
|
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: The A’s have won the first two gams of this series, 4-0 on Thrursday night and 2-0 last night. They are now 5.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West. The Angels are now 12.5 games behind the Astros and look like they are falling out of contention.
Offensively, the A’s are mediocre, while the Angels legitimately possess a top ten offense.
As for the two bullpens, neither is good, but of the two, the numbers say that the Angels are clearly worse, but I Don’t trust either one with a game on the line.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that edge has to go to the A’s.
Cole Irvin has mostly pitched surprisingly well for the A’s this season. He’s made 20 starts, with 11 that graded as above average and 9 that graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both good, but his ERA metrics are all higher than his ERA. His wOBA is lower than league average, while his expected wOBA is a little higher. Irvin’s K rate is mediocre, but he also walk very few batters.
Barria was recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to start last Sunday’s game at the Twins. In that start, he gave up just 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks over 7 innings, while striking out 4. Prior to that start, he had made only two appearances one in April and one in May this season, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits with 1 K and 5 walks over 6 innings. That’s a total of 9 runs on 11 hits and 7 walks over 13 innings, with 5 Ks. It’s a very small sample size, and I’m not putting of lot of stock in that one good start. After all, it was against the Twins.
I suppose that Barria could have another good outing today, but the A’s are a big step up in class from the Twins. Irvin has pitched really well and should be better than Barria. The A’s pen should also be better than the piss-poor excuse for a pen that the Angels have, but they’ve burned me a few too many times, so I’ll confine myself to betting on Montas over Bundy for 5 Innings and lay the half a run and risk losing a push (like I did with the Yanks last night) for a 40 cent better price.
Pick – OAK 1st 5 RL (-100 for 2 units)