LAD @ SF
Starting Pitchers
9:45
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
LAD
|
Buehler - R
|
63
|
(15/20)
|
(4/20)
|
0.90
|
2.31
|
3.08
|
3.20
|
3.62
|
3.64
|
0.246
|
0.272
|
26.4%
|
5.8%
|
SF
|
DeSclafani - R
|
58
|
(14/20)
|
(6/20)
|
1.00
|
2.87
|
3.68
|
3.61
|
3.87
|
3.98
|
0.252
|
0.296
|
23.5%
|
6.4%
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
LAD
|
0.518
|
16
|
1.24
|
7
|
3.69
|
9
|
69.2%
|
22
|
28.1%
|
1
|
12.0%
|
28
|
31
|
22
|
20
|
22
|
SF
|
0.452
|
6
|
1.47
|
28
|
3.29
|
3
|
71.1%
|
14
|
23.8%
|
18
|
11.0%
|
22
|
36
|
17
|
23
|
15
|
Edge – SF
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.16
|
2
|
0.328
|
3
|
108
|
4
|
45.5
|
4
|
10.4%
|
2
|
23.0%
|
11
|
35.2%
|
1
|
SF
|
4.86
|
7
|
0.328
|
3
|
107
|
5
|
26.2
|
6
|
10.1%
|
5
|
24.7%
|
24
|
31.4%
|
21
|
Edge – LAD close
Conclusion: The Giants pulled one out late last night 2-1 and now lead the Dodgers by 3 games in the NL West.
Offensively, it’s closer than I thought it would be, but the Dodgers till hold most of the edges.
As for the two bullpens, it’s the Dodger pen that has all the question marks and the Giants pen with most of the better numbers.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and both have been very good this season.
Walker Buehler has started 28 games for the Dodgers this season, with 15 grading as above average, 1 grading as average, and 4 grading as below average. He has given up more than 3 runs just twice all season. His WHIP and ERA are both excellent and his ERA metrics, while all higher than his very low ERA, are all still very good. That discrepancy can be traced to Buehler’s low .234 BABIP, which is a little lower than his already low career rate. His K rate is down about 3%, but it is accompanied by a good walk rate. Buehler’s K rate was a concern early on, but it appears that he has made some adjustments and is now willing to accept a few less Ks, for better command. That’s apparently the case as evidenced by his 131/29 K/BB ratio. He has faced the Giants 4 times posting a 0.74 WHIP and a 3.00 ERA.
DeSclafani has been mostly very good for the Giants this season, with 14 of his 20 starts grading as above average, and just 5 grading as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both excellent, and would be even better if not for one really bad outing. DeSclafani allowed 10 runs in 2.2 innings against the Dodgers back on May 23. Those 10 runs account for more than 30% of the runs that he has allowed this season. He’s only allowed 29 runs in the other 19 starts. DeSclafani’s ERA metrics are all higher than his ERA, but they are all still good and the same goes for his expected wOBA which is 44 points higher than his actual one , but still well below league average. DeSclafani has obviously benefited from a low .239 BABIP, that is 59 points lower than his career average and as that normalizes, we could see his ERA rise closer to where is metrics say it should be. DeSclafani has a decent, but hardly impressive K rate, but he combines it with a solid 45.8% GB rate and a decent walk rate. I don’t think that .239 BABIP is sustainable, so I expect that we’ll see some regression, but DeSclafani is still having a fine season and I don’t think that changes. However, as noted he has struggled against the Dodgers, posting a 1-.91 WHIP and an 8.84 ERA in his four satarts against them.
Buehler has the better numbers and has fared much better against the Giants than DeSclafani has against the Dodgers. The Dodgers also have the offensive edge.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 RL (+104 for 2 units)