MIL @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIL
|
Houser - R
|
47
|
(5/17)
|
(12/17)
|
1.40
|
3.88
|
4.57
|
4.62
|
4.12
|
4,51
|
0.326
|
0.327
|
18,5%
|
10.5%
|
PITT
|
Kranick - R
|
45
|
(1/3)
|
(2/3)
|
1.36
|
5.73
|
4.20
|
3.70
|
5.12
|
4.58
|
0.322
|
0.315
|
5.5%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
MIL
|
0.456
|
7
|
1.26
|
8
|
3.60
|
8
|
78.1%
|
2
|
20.4%
|
29
|
8.9%
|
6
|
25
|
19
|
28
|
13
|
PITT
|
0.518
|
16
|
1.30
|
14
|
4.28
|
17
|
70.5%
|
17
|
25.2%
|
10
|
10.3%
|
17
|
15
|
7
|
18
|
13
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
4.44
|
14
|
0.307
|
19
|
90
|
22
|
-40.9
|
22
|
10.2%
|
3
|
25.7%
|
25
|
33.1%
|
4
|
PITT
|
3.67
|
30
|
0.297
|
27
|
85
|
28
|
-67.9
|
28
|
8.5%
|
19
|
21.9%
|
3
|
28.6%
|
30
|
Edge – MIL
Conclusion: The Brewers blew out the Pirates 9—0 last night behind a surprisingly strong effort by Brett Anderson. They now lead the NL Central by 7 games over the Reds. The Pirates did indeed trade Tyler Anderson but to the Marliners and ae now 20.5 games behind the Brewers.
Offensively, the Brewer have recently hit better than they have all season, but tonight even without Christian Yellich who tested positive for Covid, still put up 9 runs last night, and the Pirate have one of, if not the worst, offenses in the league, so the Brewers still get an edge.
As for the two bullpens, the Pirates pen has been better than expected and rank in the middle of the league in most categories, but the Brewers pen has the better numbers in almost every category.
That bring us to the two starting pitchers.
Max Kranick has only started 3 games for the Pirates with just one above average start and 2 below average ones, In this 3 starts Kranick has given up 7 runs on 11 hits and 4 walks over 11 innings with 11 Ks. Those are hardly impressive numbers.
Adrian Houser has started 17 games for the Brewers this season, with 12 below average starts and just 5 above average ones. That’s left Houser with a high WHIP, but a decent ERA. However, his ERA metrics are all higher than his ERA, telling me that Houser’s been fortunate to have only given up just 40 earned runs. One thing that’s really helped Houser is a stellar 59.9% GB rate, that‘s bailed him out of a few jams. His K rate is mediocre and his walk rate is high, especially considering how few bats he but the GBs have saved his ass on numerous occasions.
Push come to shive, I might give Houser a small rate because of the great GB rate, but I normally would not bet on him, but Kranick is no better and could well be even worse and the Anderson trade could be the final nail in the Pirates 2021 coffin. They were already among the walking dead anyway.
I’ m fading the Pirates and betting on the better team and hoping Houser doesn’t implode.
Pick – MIL ML (-141 for 2 units)
WASH @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
WASH
|
Corbin - L
|
43
|
(6/19)
|
(3/19)
|
1.45
|
5.71
|
5.69
|
5.11
|
4.46
|
4.73
|
0.352
|
0.360
|
17.6%
|
7.9%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
65
|
(15/20)
|
(5/20)
|
1.01
|
2.37
|
2.49
|
2.29
|
2.74
|
3.07
|
0.250
|
0.245
|
30.4%
|
5.7%
|
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
WASH
|
0.562
|
22
|
1.52
|
30
|
4.53
|
21
|
69.4%
|
20
|
19.6%
|
30
|
9.0%
|
7
|
23
|
13
|
18
|
PHIL
|
0.597
|
25
|
1.43
|
25
|
4.62
|
22
|
69.4%
|
20
|
22.1%
|
28
|
13.5%
|
30
|
23
|
23
|
26
|
Edge – WASH very slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
4.35
|
15
|
0.324
|
8
|
99
|
14
|
-15.3
|
15
|
8.3%
|
20
|
22.2%
|
6
|
32.4%
|
11
|
PHIL
|
4.49
|
13
|
0.313
|
14
|
94
|
17
|
-20.4
|
16
|
9.3%
|
10
|
24.5%
|
22
|
30.7%
|
25
|
Edge – WASH
Conclusion: The Nats blew a 5-3 in the 9th on Monday night , but bounced back with a 6-4 win last night and now trail the Mets by 7.5 games in the NL East, while the Phils are still just 3.5 4 behind the Mets.
Offensively, although the Phils score 0.14 more runs per game, the Nats have the better wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA.
As for the two bullpens, neither is very good, but while the Nats pen is below average, the Phils pen is even worse, ranking in the bottom third of the league.
That leaves the two starting pitchers
Corbin has mostly struggled since the beginning of last season. This season, Corbin has started 19 games with just 6 outings that graded as above average and 13 that graded as below average, including his last 3. His WHIP and ERA are both very high and so are his ERA metrics, wOBA and expected wOBA. Corbin’s K rate is the worst of his caree and his walk rate is the highest of his career. The same pattern applies to HRs allowed. Corbin’s 1.64 HR/9 rate is also the highest of his career. He is striking out less batters, walking more and giving up more HRs. That’s a really bad combination.
Zack Wheeler has some great numbers including a barely over 1.00 WHIP and superb ERA. His metrics are all totally consistent with his fine ERA and he’s also got an elite K rate and a great 49.7% GB rate! This is as close to a no-brainer as there is, so I grabbed it first thing this morning. It’s been rising all day.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 RL (-138 for 2 units)
ATL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L
|
49
|
(9/16)
|
(7/16)
|
1.37
|
4.46
|
4.38
|
3.92
|
3.90
|
4.14
|
0.327
|
0.321
|
23.3%
|
8.2%
|
NYM
|
Megill - R
|
57
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
1.10
|
2.10
|
2.16
|
3.35
|
3.78
|
3.80
|
0.263
|
0.228
|
27.0%
|
8.2%
|
Edge – NYM
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
ATL
|
0.570
|
22
|
1.42
|
24
|
4.64
|
22
|
69.9%
|
19
|
23.6%
|
20
|
10.1%
|
16
|
19
|
15
|
11
|
22
|
NYM
|
0.520
|
17
|
1.37
|
19
|
4.15
|
15
|
73.2%
|
9
|
25.2%
|
10
|
10.0%
|
15
|
26
|
13
|
27
|
15
|
Edge – NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
AVG
|
Rank
|
SLG
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
ATL
|
4.75
|
11
|
0.322
|
9
|
99
|
14
|
-0.1
|
12
|
0.239
|
16
|
0.426
|
7
|
9.7%
|
8
|
24.6%
|
NYM
|
3.95
|
27
|
0.307
|
17
|
96
|
16
|
-27.2
|
17
|
0.234
|
20
|
0.385
|
23
|
9.0%
|
11
|
24.0%
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: These two teams split a doubleheader Monday, with the Braves winning the early gamw 2-0 behind a strong outing by Kyle Muller, and the Mets winning the nightcap 1-0. The Braves won in a 12-5 blowout last night, behind a solid outing by Charlie Morton and now trail the Mets by only 4 games in the NL East, so they are definitely not out of it.
The Braves have the clearly better offense, but the Mets do have the better bullpen. That makes a full game wager iffy, so I’m looking to the 1st 5.
Fried had pitched well since returning from a stint on the IL and now has 9 above average outings, inclusing 3 of his last 5, but 7 below average ones. His WHIP and ERA are both mediocre, and his ERA metrics, while a little lower, are all still consistent with his ERA. Fried’s wOBA and expected wOBA are both around league average. His K rate is fine, especially when combined with his 45.5% GB rate, but his walk rate is still on the high side. The problem is that Fried has been much worse on the road, posting a 1.76 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA in his 7 road starts.
Megill has now started 6 games for the Mets with 4 grading as above average, including his last 2, and 2 grading as below average. He has given up 7 runs on 23 hits and 10 walks over 30 innings, while striking out an impressive 33. Megill has an excellent WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics are mostly consistent with hisfERA. His wOBA is 52 points lower than league average and his expected wOBA is 35 points lower than his actual one. Megill also has a solid K rate and he combines it with a very good 48.1% GB rate, so there is some real upsidethere, but it is still a very small sample size.
The Braves are clearly better offensively, but the Mets have the slightly better of two weak bullpenw, so I’ ll stay away from the full game and focus on the first 5. and tonight, the starting pitched edge goes to the Mets. Yes, it a small sample size, but with Friemnd’soad woes...
Pick – NYM 1st 5 ML (-121 for 2 units)
CHI WS @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8;10
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
50+ GS
|
50- GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHI WS
|
Giolito - R
|
55
|
(15/20
|
(5/20)
|
1.14
|
3.78
|
3.42
|
3.92
|
3.83
|
3.76
|
0.298
|
0.286
|
28.2%
|
7.9%
|
KC
|
Bubic - L
|
39
|
(3/9)
|
(6/9)
|
1.50
|
4.72
|
5.80
|
5.76
|
4.93
|
5.00
|
0.362
|
0.363
|
19.1%
|
11.7%
|
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
CHI WS
|
0.496
|
11
|
1.29
|
11
|
3.96
|
12
|
73.3%
|
7
|
27.3%
|
4
|
8.8%
|
6
|
26
|
15
|
17
|
KC
|
0.543
|
19
|
1.39
|
23
|
4.76
|
23
|
73.4%
|
6
|
23.7%
|
19
|
11.4%
|
26
|
18
|
14
|
16
|
Edge – CHI WS
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CHI WS
|
5.09
|
5
|
0.332
|
3
|
112
|
2
|
60.0
|
2
|
10.1%
|
5
|
23.4%
|
14
|
KC
|
4.13
|
23
|
0.302
|
25
|
89
|
22
|
-43.8
|
21
|
7.4%
|
29
|
22.0%
|
5
|
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: The White Sox would appear to have all the edges here, including the much better offense and even the better bullpen.
As for the two starting pitchers, it looks like a mismatch. Lucas Giolito has all the statistical edges over Kris Bubic.
Pick – CHI WS 1st 5 RL (-131 for 2 units) and full game RL (-112 for 1 units)