For what it’s worth, yesterday was my second straight winning day. I cashed tickets with the Brewers ML, the Nats 1st 5 ML, and the Braves st 1st 5 RL. I only wish that I had been more daring. I came close t0 also picking the Marlins 1st 5, the White Sox ML and the Astros 1st 5 RL, but I chickened out. I also considered the Giants, but I thought that one was too close.
I did finish 3-0, but it could have been 6-0. Of course, as the old proverb goes “the road to hell is paved with good intentions”. I only actually be three games and I won them all. That left me +5.19 units for the day, -16.88 units for the month of July, and +18.41 units for the season. Considering what a volatile season it’s been, I’ll certainly take it.
Let’s move on to today and see if I can keep this winning stuff going for a while longer. I like two afternoon games enough to be them. Here they are.
TOR @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
TOR
|
Ray - L
|
57
|
(14/19)
|
(5/19)
|
1.06
|
3.12
|
3.60
|
4.06
|
3.27
|
3.18
|
0.297
|
0.293
|
31.3%
|
6.2%
|
BOS
|
Richards - R
|
45
|
7/19)
|
(11/19)
|
1.63
|
4.99
|
5.76
|
4.93
|
4.77
|
4.96
|
0.367
|
0.362
|
17.6%
|
9.9%
|
Edge – TOR big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
TOR
|
0.506
|
13
|
1.45
|
26
|
4.10
|
14
|
72.8%
|
10
|
26.7%
|
6
|
12.0%
|
28
|
16
|
12
|
18
|
21
|
BOST
|
0.459
|
8
|
1.21
|
5
|
3.56
|
6
|
76.1%
|
5
|
26.1%
|
8
|
9.2%
|
11
|
33
|
15
|
25
|
12
|
Edge – BOST
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
TOR
|
5.16
|
2
|
0.336
|
1
|
112
|
2
|
46.4
|
3
|
7.9%
|
24
|
21.5%
|
2
|
32.3%
|
12
|
BOST
|
5.09
|
4
|
0.328
|
5
|
104
|
7
|
20.9
|
8
|
7.7%
|
26
|
23.1%
|
12
|
33.2%
|
3
|
Edge – TOR
Conclusions: This game was rained out yesterday, after the Red Sox spotted thre Jays a 4-0 lead before coming back to win 5-4 against the Jays shaky pen. The Red Sox still lead the Rays by 2 games, with the Jays 10.5 back. If the Jay are going to claw back into contention, the have to gain ground by beating the Red Sox and Rays head to head, and the have the talent to do so.
Offensively, these are two powerhouse offenses. The Jays have the slightly better numbers, but untiiil now they’ve been playing their home games in Duneden, FL and then Buffalo, NY, in hitter friendly minor league parks. That all changes when the move back into Rogers and their numbers may no be quite as good.
As for the two bullpens, the Red Sox pen has most of the edges here and that was evident in game 1 oof this series who the Red Sox rallied after being down 4-0, scoring two 8th inning runs against the Jays shaky pen.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and despite what happened when these two matched up a week ago, I gstill give the Jays a clear edge with Robbie Ray v Garrett Richards.
Ray has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays. He has now started 19 games this season, with 14 grading as above average, including 9 of his last 11, and just 6 grading as below average. Ray’s WHIP and ERA are both very good and while his ERA metrics are mostly a little higher than his fine ERA, that’s probably because of his very high 1.1% strand rate, which is about 15% higher than Ray’s career rate. His wOBA is lower than league average and his expected wOBA is slightly lower, but almost identical to his actual one. Ray’s K rate is elite and his walk rate is the lowest of his career, more than 4% lower than his career rate. That’s pretty amazing for a guy who has always struggled with his control. There are still a few concerns. The first is the 23 HRs that Ray has surrendered, including 3 to these Red Sox in his last start. In that outing the Red Sox got to his for 4 runs on 5 hits (including the 3 HRs) 0ver 5 innings. The second is a .263 BABIP, which is about 40 points lower than his career average. We could see some regression on that front. The third is a fairly high 35.5% hard contact rate. Between those and the high strand rate, we could see some regression down the road, nothing drastic, vut regression nonetheless.
Richards has been mostly awful this season. He has started 19 games for the Red Sox, with 7 that graded as above average, 1 that graded as average, and 11 that graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both very high and his xERA says that his ERA should be close to a run higher than it actually is. Richard’s ERA metrics are all consistent with his wretched ERA, and both his wOBA and expected wOBA are about 50 points higher than league average. Richards’ K rate is not good either and is accompanied by a high walk rate. Another big concern is that Richards has struggled the first time through an opposing batting order, with a whopping 2. ,01 WHIP, a 7.08 ERA and a .433 wOBA the first time through. Richards was hardly impressive in last week’s outing against they Jays, giving up 4 run on 4 hits (also 3 HRs) over 5.2 innings, but he somehow dign’t give up any runs until the second time through the order.
Thus is a tough call because the Red Sox have hit lefties well this season, posting a .328 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ (both ranked #8) against the. They’ve also hit Ray well this season, putting up 7 runs on 9 hits (4 HRs) and 4 walks over 11 innings. That said, I still expect Ray to pitch better today and I have no such expectations for Richards, but I don’t trust the Jays bullpen, so I’m making this a 1st 5 play.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 RL (+100 for 2 units)
HTN @ SEA
Starting Pitchers
3:40
|
SP 2021
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
HTN
|
Odorizzi - R
|
49
|
(7/12)
|
(5/12)
|
1.14
|
4.23
|
4.50
|
3.93
|
4.29
|
4.31
|
0.294
|
0.325
|
22.7%
|
8.0%
|
SEA
|
Kikuchi
|
55
|
(13/18)
|
(5/18)
|
1.13
|
3.95
|
4.29
|
4.40
|
3.40
|
3.73
|
0.301
|
0.318
|
26.6%
|
8.2%
|
Edge –
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
HTN
|
0.535
|
18
|
1.35
|
17
|
4.16
|
16
|
71.5%
|
12
|
23.4%
|
20
|
11.2%
|
25
|
23
|
16
|
19
|
20
|
SEA
|
0.484
|
10
|
1.46
|
27
|
3.96
|
12
|
69.2%
|
22
|
23.0%
|
24
|
10.9%
|
21
|
29
|
17
|
27
|
14
|
Edge – SEA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.40
|
1
|
0.336
|
1
|
118
|
1
|
76.6
|
1
|
9.4%
|
9
|
19.3%
|
1
|
32.0%
|
14
|
SEA
|
4.20
|
21
|
0.296
|
28
|
91
|
21
|
-40.4
|
21
|
8.7%
|
17
|
26.5%
|
30
|
30.7%
|
24
|
Edge – HTN big
Conclusion: After blowing a lead on Monday night, the Astros almost did it again last night, turning a geme that the led 8-2 qfter 65 into a close 8-6 win. Their bullpens just keeps getting worse. The Astros still lead the AL West by 6 games over the A’s. As for the Mariners, I’ll be damned if I know how they are managing to keep doing it. They overcame a 6-run Astros 1st to win on Monday night, and almost di it again last night. They are still only 7 games behind the Astros in the AL West. Every metric that I know of says they should be a lot worse than they have been. I was on the Astros 1st 5 and full game on Monday, but I chickened out last night, costing myself a 1st 5 winner.
Offensively, this should be a mismatch. Although it hasn’t looked that way in the first two games of this series. The Astros, despite their occasional lapses, are still the best hitting team in baseball, while the Mariners are still one of the worst.
As for the two bullpens, the Astros have a weakness. It’s their pen and it seems to be getting worse. The Mariner fully exploited it on Monday night and almost did so again last night. Th Astros pen is very mediocre, while the Mariners pen, on the other hand, has been a real strength for this team that nobody expected anything from.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and there I give the Astros a small edge.
The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the IL with a strained muscle in his right arm after he left his April 24th start, after just five pitches with what the team called tightness in his right forearm, and later announced that Odorizzi had a strained right pronator. Since returning, Odorizzi has made 9 starts, with 7 grading as above average and just 2 grading as below average. The result is an solid WHIP, but a mediocre ERA, with ERA metrics that are pretty consistent with his ERA. Odorizzi’s wOBA is a little lower than league average, but his expected wOB is a little higher. A ,255 BABIP, that is about 20 point lower than his career average, and a 67.7 strand rate that is about 6.5% lower than his career rate are certainly contributing factors and as they normalize we should see Odorizzi’s ERA come down even more than it already has. Not being healthy at the start of the season was the bigger factor, and as long as he stays healthy, I would expect continued improvement from Odorizzi, especially with the potent Astros bats supporting him.
Yusei Kikuchi has started 18 games for the Mariners this season with 13 that graded as above average and just 5 that graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both solid However Kikuchi’s xERA and FIP are both higher than his ERA. That’s probably because of his low .256 BABIP, which is close to 40 points lower that his career average, and as that normalizes, we could see his ERA go up a little. Kikuchi’s wOBA is slightly lower than league average and his expected wOBA is right around league average. Kikuchi’s K rate is solid and he combines it with 50.5% GB rate, but a fairly high walk rate. Kikuchi’s slider has shown more movement this season and that’s really helped him.
The Astros have the much better offense. That much is obvious and they also hit lefthander really well, positing a .335 wOBA (rank #3) and a 118 wRC+ (rank #1) against them. However, as mentioned several times earlier, the Astros pen in very problematic, so that alone will keep me off a full game bet. As for the two starting pitchers, the number appear to give Kikuchi a small edge over Oderizzi, but it’s a vsmall edge and if we eliminate Ododrizzi’s three April starts, in which he gave up 9 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks in just 8 innings, but wasn’t healthy, the numbers are virtually even. Then, when I factor in how well the Astros have hit lefties this season, I’m taking them on a 1st 5 bet. I think they get a few early off Kikuchi and I’m not sure the Mariner will get to Odorizzi.
Pick – HTN (+107 for 2 units)