907 Reds (-106) over Cubs (Mahle vs Davies)
The oddsmakers has priced this matchup as two even teams and I disagree for this situation with these pitchers expected to start. The Reds have the edge in the lineup being ranked inside the top 10 and have the starting pitching edge with Mahle. I think the Reds biggest problem was they were losing games late because of their bullpen as they were missing some of their key guys due to injury but now some of those players are back and they just traded for two quality relievers from the Yankees in Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to go along with the other trusted arms. I also think there’s value in Tyler Mahle. He’s had a solid season up to this point but struggled a little bit during his last few starts but 2 of those came against the Brewers the best team in their division while Davies last few starts came against one of the worst teams in baseball the Diamondbacks. Mahle is 7-3 (5-1 on the road) and the Reds are 13-7 (8-3 on the road) in his starts and he’s made 11 career starts against the Cubs and he’s 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. Davies has made 15 career starts against the Reds and he’s 3-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.38 WHIP and there’s at least 5 projected starters in the Reds lineup that hit better than .250 off of him.