For what it’s worth, the Rays finally got there, but it sure as hell wasn’t easy. Now we need two more team, the Blue Jays and the Astros, to do their part. Here are two more parlays for tonight.
I may be back later tonight with a play on the Giant/Dodger game. I’ve got a computer guy coming over to try and fix a few problems, so we’ll see how that goes.
BOL all!
Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
HTN 1st 5
|
108
|
2
|
|
TOR 1st 5 ML
|
HTN ML
|
108
|
2
|
BOS @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BOS
|
Richards - R
|
|
45
|
(7/18)
|
(10/18)
|
1.68
|
4.91
|
6.27
|
4.71
|
4.86
|
5.06
|
0.375
|
0.375
|
17.4%
|
10.2%
|
TOR
|
Ray – L
|
|
58
|
(14/18)
|
(4/18)
|
1.05
|
2.93
|
3.65
|
3.81
|
3.20
|
3.14
|
0.291
|
0.295
|
31.9%
|
5.3%
|
Edge – TOR big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
BOS
|
0.472
|
9
|
1.37
|
19
|
3.67
|
9
|
75.8%
|
5
|
26.7%
|
5
|
11.0%
|
22
|
30
|
14
|
21
|
TOR
|
0.504
|
12
|
1.30
|
13
|
4.06
|
13
|
72.4%
|
10
|
25.3%
|
9
|
10.7%
|
19
|
16
|
10
|
17
|
Edge – Edge – BOS slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BA
|
Rank
|
SLG
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.10
|
4
|
0.329
|
6
|
104
|
8
|
16.0
|
8
|
0.259
|
3
|
0.439
|
3
|
7.6%
|
28
|
23.0%
|
11
|
TOR
|
5.10
|
4
|
0.335
|
2
|
110
|
4
|
35.4
|
4
|
0.264
|
2
|
0.449
|
1
|
8.1%
|
22
|
21.9%
|
2
|
Edge TOR
Conclusion: After an impressive 13-4 blowout Red Sox win on Monday, last night’s game was postponed. The Red Sox (51-38) still lead the mediocre AL East, but by just a half a game over the Rays. The Jays 48-43 are just 7 games out are definitely still in contention.
Offensively, the Red Sox have a really good offense, one of the best in baseball. That said the Jays offense is statistically even better. It’s close and both team can kill you with their bats, but the numbers give the Jays a small edge.
As for the two bullpens, that matchup is also really close. The Red So have the better R/IP and strand rate, as well as the better Krate, save rate and W/L record. However the Jays pen has the better WHIP and ERA, as well as the better walk rate. I guess I’ll give the Red Sox an edge by a razor thin margin.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and here I think that the Jays have a huge edge with Robbie Ray v Garrett Richards.
Richards has been awful this season. He has started 18 games for the Red Sox, with 7 that graded as above average, 1 that graded as average, and 10 that graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both very high ERA and his xERA says that his ERA should be well over a run higher than it actually is. Richard’s ERA metrics are all too consistent with his wretched ERA, and both his wOBA and expected wOBA are about points higher than league average. Richards’ K rate is not good either and is accompanied by a high walk rate. Another big concern is that Richards’ has struggled even the first time through an oppoonent’s batting order, with a 2,13 WHIPm a 7.59 ERA and a .452 wOBA the first time through.
Ray has been a pleasant surprise for the Jays. He has now started 18 games this season, with 14 grading as above average, including 9 of his last 10, and just 4 grading as below average. Ray’s WHIP and ERA are both very good and his ERA metrics are mostly a little higher than his fine ERA, but that’s probably because of his very high 90.4% strand rate, which is about 15% higher than Ray’s career rate. His wOBA is lower than league average and his expected wOBA is almost identical to his actual one. Ray’s K rate is elite and his walk rate is the lowest of his career, more than 4% lower than his career rate. That’s pretty amazing for a guy who has always struggled with his control. There are still a couple of concerns. The first is the 20 HRs that Rays surrendered, but he’s only given up 6 in his 9 Jun and July starts. He hasn’t had a multiple HR game since May 27. The second is a high 35.3% hard contact rate. Between those and the high strand rate, we could see some regression down the road, nothing drastic, nut regression nonetheless.
The starting pitcher matchup is the big mismatch here. Ray is having a great season and Richards has been awful.
Pick – TOR 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays
CLEVV @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CLEV
|
Morgan - R
|
|
37
|
(1/6)
|
(5/6)
|
1.52
|
7.86
|
6.12
|
6.18
|
4.78
|
4.28
|
0.413
|
0.371
|
23.5%
|
4.2%
|
HTN
|
Mccullers - R
|
|
60
|
(12/15)
|
(3/15)
|
1.18
|
2.80
|
3.42
|
3.45
|
3.89
|
4.15
|
0.273
|
0.286
|
27.4%
|
11.9%
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
CLEV
|
0.414
|
2
|
1.26
|
8
|
3.29
|
4
|
78.4%
|
2
|
28.9%
|
1
|
10.8%
|
21
|
24
|
9
|
20
|
14
|
HTN
|
0.537
|
18
|
1.32
|
14
|
4.13
|
14
|
71.5%
|
13
|
24.7%
|
13
|
10.4%
|
17
|
22
|
14
|
18
|
18
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BA
|
Rank
|
SLG
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.36
|
15
|
0.303
|
22
|
88
|
25
|
-43.2
|
24
|
0.229
|
27
|
0.398
|
15
|
7.9%
|
26
|
23.4%
|
15
|
HTN
|
5.45
|
1
|
0.339
|
1
|
119
|
1
|
73.4
|
1
|
0.269
|
1
|
0.439
|
3
|
9.6%
|
9
|
19.0%
|
1
|
Edge – HTN big
Conclusion: The Astros won a close one Monday 4-3 and followed that up with a 9-3 blowout win last night. The Indians (47-45) are now 9.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central, and I very much doubt that they can close that gap. The Astros (58-38) lead the AL West by 3.5 over the A’s, so there is definitely a race to be run there.
Offensively, this should be another mismatch. As inconsistent as they sometimes are, the Astros still have the best offense in baseball, while the Indians still often struggle to score runs.
However, when we look at these two bullpens, it’s the Indians who have a clear edge with the much better pen.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and there I’m giving the Astros a huge edge with Lance McCullers Jr. v Eli Morgan.
Morgan has now started 6 games for the Indians and just 1 of them graded as above average, with the other 5 all graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both extremely high and his ERA metrics, while lower than his ghastly ERA are still really bad. The same goes for his sky-high wOBA, and lower but still very high expected wOBA. Now, when we throw in his 9 HRs in just over 26 innings and his very high 42.9% hard contact rate, Morgan just doesn’t look ready for the big leagues.
McCullers, has now started 6 games since being activated from the IL and all 6 have graded as above average. He was pitching well for the Astros when he hit the IL, and now has 12 above average outings and just 3 that graded as below average. His WHIP and ERA are both very good, but his ERA metrics are all about a full run higher than his ERA. When I look for an explanation, two things jump out. The first is a walk rate that’s 2.3% higher than his career rate, and the second is a .255 BABIP that’s 47 points lower than his career rate. McCullers has walked 43 in just under 87 innings. That’s almost a walk ever other inning, yet he’s only allowed 28 runs (27 earned). If he continues that pattern, McCullers will give up more runs. The low BABIP is mostly a product of good luck on batted balls, and luck tends to even out, and as more balls become hits rather than outs, Ihis BABIP goes up and more runners get on base and eventually score. I’m not predicting a disaster, but I am saying that a month from now, his numbers may not look quite as good as they do right now. On the plus side, McCullers is generating an excellent K rate and combining it with a superb 54.2% GB rate and there’s no reason to believe that will change.
The Indians do have a legitimate shot in this game, but only if they can keep it close until it reaches the bullpens. The problem is that I very much doubt that Moran will fare well or last long against the dangerous Astro bats. This game could get ugly in a hurry. I still don’t completely trust the Astos sometimes vanishing offense, but with Moran on the hill, The Astros just might tee off on him and do a lot of damage in the process .
Pick – HTN 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays.