For what It’s worth, yesterday was a pretty good day for me. Despite that disappointing finish to the Giants/Dodgers game, I still finished +13.37 units for the day, making me -30.76 units for the month of July and +4.53 units for the season. I’m in the black again!
As for last night’s parlay card, I was really surprised that the Padres couldn’t score more than 1 run last night. I can’t blame Darvsih, who only gave up 2 runs in 5.2 innings. He deserved a better fate. At least I got a push of the 1st 5 before losing the full game. Fortunately, the Rays used a late inning explosion to put away the O’s, the Astros crushed the Indians and the Rockies’ German Marquez was able to hold a 2-0 lead for 5 innings before giving up 4 in the 6th, cashing my 1st 5.
As for last night’s side plays, I cashed both 1st 5 and full game ML plays on the White Sox, who gtook their sweet time before finally putting the Twins away with a five-run 8th that turned a close game into a blowout. I also cashed with the Giants 1st 5 and looked like I would get the full game ML as well, until a three-run HR in the bottom of the 9th turned a 6-5 Giant lead into a bitter 8-6 loss.
Still it was a good day, and I’m in the black for the season. Maybe, that’s something that I can build on .
BALT @ TB
Starting Pitchers
12:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS
|
GS+
|
GS-
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BALT
|
Akin - L
|
|
34
|
(1/8)
|
(7/8)
|
1.80
|
8.19
|
5.96
|
4.93
|
4.84
|
4.62
|
0.393
|
0.367
|
20.4%
|
8.9%
|
TB
|
Wacha - R
|
|
51
|
(5/11)
|
(6/11)
|
1.35
|
5.14
|
6.48
|
4.90
|
4.34
|
4.30
|
0.347
|
0.380
|
21.2%
|
6.9%
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
BALT
|
0.585
|
24
|
1.38
|
21
|
4.90
|
26
|
69.1%
|
22
|
24.6%
|
14
|
9.9%
|
14
|
15
|
13
|
16
|
18
|
TB
|
0.426
|
3
|
1.15
|
2
|
3.23
|
2
|
73.3%
|
7
|
26.3%
|
8
|
8.0%
|
2
|
26
|
11
|
33
|
18
|
Edge – TB Big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
BA
|
Rank
|
SLG
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.09
|
24
|
0.304
|
19
|
92
|
18
|
-36.8
|
18
|
0.237
|
16
|
0.393
|
19
|
7.8%
|
27
|
24.1%
|
18
|
TB
|
4.80
|
7
|
0.311
|
16
|
101
|
10
|
10.7
|
10
|
0.230
|
25
|
0.396
|
16
|
9.9%
|
7
|
26.8%
|
29
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: Last night was payback time for the Rays (57-39) who got their asses handed to them by the wretched O’s Monday night 6-1, as the Rays rolled to a 9-3 win last night. They remain well positioned in the mediocre AL East, just 1 games behind the Red Sox. The O’s (31-63) have long since fallen out of contention and now sit firmly in the division basement, 25 games out.
They finally show it last night, the Rays have the better offense.
The bullpen matchup still looks like a huge mismatch, as the Rays have one of the best pens in the league, while the O’s pen is well below average.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, Alexander Wells and Michael Wacha.
Wells was recalled by the O;s to start this series finale against the Rays, after Keegan Akin was placed on the injured list for an unspecified reason. Wells will return to the Orioles to make his first major-league start. The southpaw has worked mainly as a starter in the minors this year, and he's posted a 1.16 WHIP and 4.19 ERA in 43 AAA innings across (10 appearances and 8 starts). Wells should be fully restedt, but it's not clear whether he could be on a pitch count. In two appearances out of the O’s bullpen, Wells has given up 2 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks over 4.2 Innings, with 1 K. It’s a small sample size, but that’s 9 baserunners in under 5 innings!
Wacha is not prize, but he has started 11 games for the Rays, with 5 above average outings and 6 below average. His WHIP and ERA are both highand his ERA metrics are mostly consistent with his ERA. His wOBA is 33 points higher than league average and his expected wOBA is even higher telling me that Wacha’s been lucky. His K rate is mediocre, but his walk rate is solid. The best thing that I can say about Wacha is that there’s less to dislike about him than there is with Wells. How’s that for a ringing endorsement?
The Rays do have the better offense and the much better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, neither one has been very good, but of the two I dislike Wacha less than I dislike Akins. Based on the starting pitcers alone, this game would be a pass, but based on the two teams, the Rays ML is worth a shot.
Pick – TB ML in a series of MML parlays.
Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team 2
|
Odds
|
|
TB ML
|
TOR 1st 5
|
122
|
|
TB ML
|
HTN 1st 5
|
111
|
|
TB ML
|
HTN ML
|
100
|