ARIZ @ SF
Starting Pitchers
9:45
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
ARIZ
|
Kelly - R
|
|
(4/12)
|
(8/13)
|
47
|
1.33
|
5.14
|
4.39
|
4.13
|
3.92
|
4.17
|
0.326
|
0.330
|
8.12
|
2.51
|
SF
|
DeSclafani - R
|
|
(9/13)
|
(4/13)
|
57
|
1.02
|
3.09
|
3.49
|
3.62
|
3.98
|
4.12
|
0.258
|
0.297
|
7.85
|
2.50
|
Edge – SF
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ARIZ
|
0.59
|
24
|
1.44
|
27
|
4.62
|
23
|
70.0%
|
18
|
-0.2
|
27
|
6
|
12
|
8
|
16
|
21.1%
|
29
|
8.5%
|
6
|
SF
|
0.47
|
7
|
1.14
|
3
|
3.38
|
6
|
72.7%
|
10
|
0.0
|
23
|
24
|
14
|
13
|
11
|
23.4%
|
21
|
8.2%
|
2
|
Edge – SF big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
4.18
|
18
|
0.300
|
22
|
88
|
23
|
-36.2
|
23
|
0.147
|
21
|
0.9
|
13
|
8.6%
|
16
|
23.8%
|
17
|
SFG
|
4.61
|
10
|
0.317
|
11
|
103
|
10
|
4.4
|
12
|
0.180
|
5
|
-5.4
|
26
|
10.3%
|
3
|
25.6%
|
24
|
Edge – SF
Conclusion: The Dbacks lost 5-2 to these Giants on Monday night and then blew a 7-run lead and lost their 12th straight game and 21st straight road game (just one short of the major league record) when Mike Yastrzemski hit a grand slam with two outs in the 8th that lifted the Giants to a 9-8 victory last night. I remember watching Yastrzemski’s granddad, “Captain Carl” roam LF for the Red Sox and that amazing “67 season when he won the “Triple Crown” and led the heavy underdog Red Sox all the way to the 7th game of the World Series, but I digress.
The Giants hold all the edges in this one. Offensively, they are the much better team and by a fairly wide margin. Thebullpen matchup is yet another mismatch, as the Giants hold every statistical edge there as well.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and and again here, I give the Giants a clear edge with the resurgent Anthony DeSclafani facing off with Merrill Kelly.
Kelly has started 13 games for the Dbacks with just 4 grading as above average, 1 grading as average and 8 grading as below average. That’s twice as many below average starts as above average ones, not a good ratio. Kelly’s WHIP and ERA remain high and his wOBA is higher than league average. His ERA metrics are all better than his high ERA, but still very mediocre. That’s probably due to his extremely low 54.3% strand rate which should rise and normalize as the season progresses. Kelly’s 21.2% K rate is pedestrian as is his 6.5% walk rate. Kelly just hasn’t been very good and neither have the Diamondbacks.
DeSclafani has been mostly sensational for the Giants this season, with 9 of his 13 starts grading as above average and just 4 grading as below average. His WHIP, ERA and wOBA are all very good. DeSclafani’s ERA metrics are all slightly higher than his ERA, but still good, and the same goes for his expected wOBA. DeSclafani has a decent but hardly impressive 22.1% K rate, but he combines it with a solid 48.1% GB rate and a decent 7% walk rate.
The Giant have the much better bullpen, the much better offense and the better starting pitcher.
Pick – SF 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of ML parlays.
PHIL @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
10:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS 50+
|
GS 50-
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
|
(11/13)
|
(2/13)
|
67
|
0.90
|
2.29
|
2.41
|
2.39
|
2.69
|
2.85
|
0.238
|
0.248
|
11.16
|
1.79
|
LAD
|
Kershaw - L 58
|
|
(8/14)
|
(4/14)
|
58
|
0.97
|
3.39
|
3.06
|
2.74
|
2.98
|
3.07
|
0.261
|
0.279
|
10.38
|
1.53
|
Edge – PHIL very close
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
0.59
|
24
|
1.38
|
21
|
4.55
|
21
|
69.5%
|
21
|
-0.6
|
30
|
14
|
14
|
17
|
11
|
22.8%
|
25
|
10.0%
|
14
|
LAD
|
0.56
|
20
|
1.30
|
14
|
3.89
|
14
|
66.3%
|
29
|
1.1
|
14
|
22
|
14
|
9
|
12
|
24.9%
|
14
|
11.3%
|
24
|
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
4.25
|
15
|
0.306
|
15
|
93
|
17
|
-17.4
|
16
|
0.146
|
23
|
2.1
|
9
|
8.7%
|
15
|
26.0%
|
25
|
LAA
|
4.85
|
8
|
0.323
|
7
|
106
|
7
|
17.4
|
8
|
0.175
|
9
|
-1.7
|
21
|
7.5%
|
29
|
23.3%
|
12
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodger won the first game of this series 3-1 on Monday night and won again 5-3 last night.
In this matchup, the Dodgers seem to have most of the edges. Offensively, the Phils rate as about league average, while the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in baseball. The Phils offense will be further impaired by the loss of 2B Jean Segura (.366 wOBA and 133 wRV+) who was placed on the IL with a groin injury, and Bryce Harper (.371 wOBA and 137 wRC+) who has been ruled out of tonight game with a sore back. That’s a hell of a lot of firepower that the Phils won’t have tonight.
In the bullpen, the Dodgers may have weaknesses, but we sure didn’t see them last night and the numbers say that the Phils have a lot more issue with their pen.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and while the overall numbers point to Zack Wheeler having the edge, the home road splits point to Clayton Kershaw. I’m calling it even.
Wheeleris having a great season with 11 of his 13 starts grading as above average and just 2 grading as bellow average. He has a great WHIP, ERA and wOBA, as well as very good ERA metrics and a very good expected wOBA. He’s also striking out well over a batter per inning. However he is better at home than on the road, where he has compiled just a 1-2 record with a 1.31 WHUP and 3.38 ERA. Thise numbers aren’t bad, they’re just not anywhere near as good as Wheeler has pitched at home.
By contrast, Kershaw’s overall numbers, while still very good, are not as good as Wheeler’Only 8 of his 14 starts graded as above average, with 4 grading as below average. All of his other numbers are very good as well, but just nnot quite as good as Wheeler’s. However, at home, Kershaw is 4-2 with a 0.89 WHIP and 3.07 ERA, which are all better than Wheeler’s road numbers.is better than
The Dodgers have the better offense, and they even have the better of two lousy bullpens, so if I call the starting pitchers even, I still expect the Dodgers to win this game. For me the home.road splits of the two pitchers is factor and an even bigger factor is that the Phils won’t have Segura or Harper tonight.
Pick – LAD ML (-141 for 2 units)