For what it’s worth, yesterday was not another incredibly good day. Most of the games were close and several could have gone either way. It was a struggle. Fortunately, I finished the evening +4.67 units for the day. That left me +61.08 units for the month of June, and +12.10 units for the season. Hopefully, I can keep it going for a while.
Yesterday, I used four teams and six sides, the A’s ML, the Padres 1st 5 and full game MLs, the Dodgers ML, and the Yankees 1st 5 and full game MLs, in a round robin of two-team ML parlays. Only the Padres failed to coverm as the 1st 5 ML pushed and the full game ML lost.
I always try to spend more time looking at my losers. I usually learn more from the games that I got wrong than the ones that I got right. My most surprising loss was the Padres ML. Yu Darvush and his increased spin rate might have been under extra scrutiny, but it didn’t seem to bother him much. He tossed 7 solid innings, giving up just 2 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 8. Unfortunately, that was one more run that the Padres could muster against Jake Arrieta. Yes, that Jake Arrieta! All I’ll say is that if you can’t get more than 4 hits and 1 run off an aging and declining Arrieta, you must really suck and yesterday that’s exactly what the Padre hitters did repeatedly. They sucked!
I also had a small ML parlay on the White Sox ML and the Rays ML and both ends of that one lost. I segregated this one because I wasn’t as confident about it. In the Nats/Rays game, Patrick Corbin actually pitched better than I expected only giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks in his 5 innings. Of course, with 7 baserunners, I’d say that he was damned lucky to give up only 3 runs. Shane McClanahan only went 3 innings, giving up 3 hits and 3 walks, so I guess he was lucky too. The game went to extra innings and with the new rules, extra innings is a joke, a complete crapshoot. As for the Jays/White Sox game, the White Sox took a 2-1 lead into the 8th behind another strong outing by Lance Lynn ,who gave up just 1 run (a solo HR by Grinchuk) on 4 hits over 7 innings. However the Jays teed off on the white Sox shaky pen for 5 runs in the 8th and 9th to win going aay.
As for my side bets, my two losers were the Rangers 1st 5 in a close one. After 4 scoreless innings, the Giants got back to back solo HRs from the bottom third of their order 3B Jason Vosler and C Chadwick Tromp to take a 2-0 5th inning lead and kill my bet. Of course in the ultimate irony, the Rangers came back late to win the game 4-3 in 11 innings. My other loser was the Red Sox ML. I expected the Sox to maul Jake dorizzi, and they did get 2 quick runs off hiom in the 1st, but from that point on, it was the Astros, that did the mauling and Nathan Eovaldi who got mauled, giving up 5 run on 11 hits and 3 walks, as my Red Sox ML went down in flames.
Fortunately, I also had 3 winners, the Mets 1st 5 and full game MLs and the A’s RL. The Mets got another strong outing from Tajuan Walker, who tossed 7 strong innings, iving up just 5 hits and a walk, while the Mets were teeing off on old teammate Matt Harvey and every other pitcher that followed in a 14-1 blowout of the pathetic Orioles. The A’s not only easily won their game to cash a few of my parlays, but also won my side bet on the RL.
We have a small slate of games today including a few day games. Here’s my first and possibly my only plays today:
LAD @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
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SP 2021
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GS +50
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GS -50
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GS
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WHIP
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ERA
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xERA
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FIP
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xFIP
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SIERA
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wOBA
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xwOBA
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K/9
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BB/9
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LAD
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Urias - L
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|
(8/12)
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(4/12)
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57
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0.97
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3.48
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.3.49
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3.13
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3.27
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3.20
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0.267
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0.297
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9.95
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1.37
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PITT
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Keller - R
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|
(5/11)
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(6/11)
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41
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1.72
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6.65
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5.23
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4.55
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4.83
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4.79
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0.370
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0.356
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9.67
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5.24
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Edge – LAD big
Bullpens
Team
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R/IP
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Rank
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WHIP
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Rank
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ERA
|
Rank
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LOB%
|
Rank
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WAR
|
Rank
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SV
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BS
|
W
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L
|
K%
|
Rank
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BB%
|
Rank
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LAD
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0.56
|
21
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1.38
|
22
|
4.54
|
23
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70.7%
|
14
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-0.1
|
25
|
14
|
11
|
14
|
10
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22.9%
|
25
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9.7%
|
13
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PITT
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0.46
|
10
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1.27
|
10
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3.59
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8
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73.4%
|
10
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0.9
|
16
|
11
|
7
|
13
|
12
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25.1%
|
13
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11.1%
|
23
|
Edge – PITT
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
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wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
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ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
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LAD
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5.31
|
1
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0.325
|
6
|
109
|
4
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28.0
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3
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0.166
|
10
|
1.7
|
10
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11.2%
|
1
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23.4%
|
12
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PITT
|
3.55
|
30
|
0.287
|
29
|
82
|
29
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-44.0
|
29
|
0.120
|
30
|
3.4
|
7
|
8.4%
|
18
|
23.1%
|
7
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: The Dodgers eked out a 2-1 win last night on the strength of 2 solo HRs from #B Justin Turner. Starting pitcher Tony Gosolin only went 1.2 innings, but the Dodgers’ shaky bullpen contributed 7.1 scoreless innings of 1-hit ball protecting a 1-run all night long. \
The Dodgerds are just so much better than the Pirates, who could be the worst team in the league. Offensively, this is a mismatch. The Dodgers have a top five offense, while the Pirates possess a bottom 5 unit.
However, when we look at the two bullpens, it’s a different story. If the Dodgers have a weakness, despite what we say last night, it’s been their shaky bullpen, that ranks as below average almost across the board. Other than a better W/L record and a lower walk rate, the Pirates have all the other edges in this bullpen matchup .
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and today the Dodgers should have a big aedge with Julio Urias facing off against Mitcher Keller.
Urias has started 12 games for the Dodgers this season delivering 8 above average starts and 4 below average ones. He’s given up more than 3 runs just three times this season. His WHIP,ERA and wOBA are all very good despite one very ugly start against the Giants two starts ago , and his ERA metrics are every bit as good. His expected wOBA is a tad higher than his actual one, but still well below league average. Urias 28.1% K rate is very good as well, particular when combined with hs 3.9% walk rate. It should also be noted that Urias has been very good on the road, posting a 5-1 record with a 0.73 WHIP and a 2.43 ERA , with 41 Ks in his 6 road starts (37 IP) this season Now that he’s firmly planted in the Dodgers rotation, Urias just might be having a breakout season.
Mitch Keller has started 11 games for the Pirates this season. The de-facto ace of this Pirate staff has struggled this season with just 5 starts that graded as above average and 6 that graded as below average. Keller has given up a total of 33 runs on 51 hits and 26 walks over 44.2 innings, with 48 Ks. That’s left him with a very high WHIP, ERA and wOBA. Keller’s ERA metrics and expected wOBA are all lower than his bloated ERA, but still not very good and his .339 BABIP is also high.
The Dodgers should have a huge edge at starting pitcher a big edge on offense.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 and full game MLs in a series of parlays with the Marlins
Parlays
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Team #1
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Team #2
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Odds
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Units
|
|
LAD 1st 5
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MIA 1st 5
|
(+112)
|
2
|
|
LAD 1st 5
|
MIA ML
|
(+122)
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
(+118)
|
2
|
|
LAD ML
|
MIA ML
|
(+121)
|
2
|