For what it’s worth, yesterday did ot go as well as Friday did. The Nats and Yanks 1st 5 stayed under, but the parlays were more problematic. The Cards jumped all over Chi-Chi Rodriguez and held o for a 1st 5 win in what turned out to be a wild and close game. The White Sox unloaded on young Daniel Lynch for 8 1st inning runs and rolled to an easy win. Unfortunately Tyler Glasnow did not bring his A or B game and was down 3-0 early killing that 1st 5 and the Phils scored 3 early run against Ian Anderson and the Braves, who eventually won the game 8-7, didn’t wake up until the Phils bullpen got involved killing that 1st 5.
Let’s move on to today’s games. I’m still not that confident about anything right now, but I’ll stick to my guns and press on. It is Sunday and that means that it’s a family day. We have Sunday dinner and spend the afternoon together. As a result my write-ups are quite brief. I give you the numbers and my conclusions and picks.
I’m going with parlays again. Here’s the card:
Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
BOS ML
|
NYY ML
|
(+188)
|
1
|
|
BOS ML
|
NYM 1st 5
|
(+131)
|
1
|
|
BOS ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
(+212)
|
1
|
|
BOS ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
(+192)
|
1
|
|
BOS ML
|
CHI WS ML
|
(+182)
|
1
|
|
BOS ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
(+159)
|
1
|
|
BOS ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+209)
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
NYM 1st 5
|
(+115)
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
(+180
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
(+173)
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
CHI WS ML
|
(+175)
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
(+142)
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+188
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
(+124)
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
MIA 1st 5
|
(+118)
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
CHI WS ML
|
(+120)
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
(-106)
|
1
|
|
NYM 1st 5
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+131)
|
1
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
MIA 1st 5
|
(+183
|
1
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
CHI WS ML
|
(+186)
|
1
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
(+152)
|
1
|
|
CIN 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+200)
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
CHI WS ML
|
(+179)
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
(+145)
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+192)
|
1
|
|
CHI WS ML
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
(+147)
|
1
|
|
CHI WS ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+195)
|
1
|
|
LAD 1st 5 ML
|
PHIL 1st 5 ML
|
(+159)
|
1
|
If it turns out to be a really bad day, my bankroll will be gone by the 4th of July. I’m betting it won’t be.
BOS @ BALT
Starting Pitchers.
1:05
|
SP 2021
|
|
50+ GS
|
50- GS
|
AVG GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
BOS
|
Pivetta - R
|
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
55
|
1.30
|
3.23
|
4.12
|
3.33
|
4.41
|
4.75
|
0.285
|
0.330
|
BALT
|
Kremer - R
|
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
40
|
1.62
|
6.43
|
4.67
|
5.25
|
4.26
|
4.21
|
0.282
|
0.349
|
Edge – BOS
Bullpens
The Orioles bullpen has been surprisingly proficient this season and, for that matter so has the Red Sox pen,. This is too close to give an edge to either side.
Edge - None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.19
|
2
|
0.334
|
1
|
115
|
1
|
17.9
|
2
|
0.180
|
6
|
7.7%
|
24
|
22.2%
|
5
|
BAL
|
3.87
|
25
|
0.289
|
28
|
88
|
24
|
-15.7
|
25
|
0.145
|
22
|
7.2%
|
28
|
25.0%
|
20
|
This is not close. The Red Sox have an elite offense. They rank #1 in wOBA and wRC+ and #2 in RPG and ORAA. By contrast, the O’s rank 24th or worse in all of these categories.
Edge – BOS
Conclusion: I’m still convinced that the Red Sox are as good as they’ve played so far this season, but I am sure that they are much better than the O’s. The most glaring difference is offensively, and at Camden Yards that could matter. I also think that the Red Sox have the better starting pitcher.
Pick – BOS ML
WASH @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
1:05
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
vOBA
|
xwOBA
|
WASH
|
Ross - R
|
|
(3/5)
|
(2/5)
|
46
|
1.24
|
4.39
|
5.82
|
5.69
|
4.76
|
4.64
|
0.328
|
0.383
|
NYY
|
German - R
|
|
(1/5)
|
(4/5)
|
47
|
1.24
|
4.32
|
4.90
|
4.82
|
3.90
|
3.72
|
0.330
|
0.356
|
I have no confidence in either of these guys, but German has the better metrics, so I’ll give him a small edge.
Edge NYY slight
Bullpens
A couple of ugly performances notwithstanding, on paper the Yanks are supposed to be one of the best bullpens in baseball. They rank 1st in RIP, WHIP and WAR, with 9 saves in 11 opportunities. The Nats pen has actually been pretty good as well, but just not as good as the Yanks.
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
4.10
|
20
|
0.313
|
10
|
105
|
8
|
-0.1
|
11
|
0.157
|
16
|
11.9%
|
1
|
23.0%
|
8
|
WASH
|
3.44
|
28
|
0.307
|
17
|
90
|
21
|
-12.7
|
22
|
0.133
|
26
|
7.5%
|
26
|
23.1%
|
9
|
The Yanks are starting to hit, or at least they were until the first two games of this series, but so are the Nats. The number all tilt to the Yanks.
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: While I’m not impressed by either starting pitcher, with an offense that’s seems to be heating up, a bullpen that’s supposed to be one of the best in baseball, I think the the Yanks are the better team. They looked like toast yesterday, but found a way. We’ll hope the momentum last today.
Pick – NYY ML
ARIZ @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
ARIZ
|
Smith - R
|
|
(1/3)
|
(3/3)
|
45
|
1.55
|
4.91
|
5.12
|
4.38
|
5.53
|
5.48
|
0.341
|
0.363
|
NYM
|
deGrom - R
|
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
78
|
0.57
|
0.51
|
1.47
|
0.82
|
1.39
|
1.38
|
0.187
|
0.199
|
Edge – NYM huge
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
BB%
|
ARI
|
0.66
|
27
|
1.45
|
26
|
-0.4
|
26
|
66.5%
|
27
|
4
|
4
|
21
|
6
|
5
|
29.0%
|
7.9%
|
NYM
|
0.51
|
15
|
1.23
|
10
|
1.7
|
2
|
64.6%
|
29
|
4
|
1
|
13
|
5
|
2
|
25.5%
|
9.4%
|
I have no confidence in either pen, but the Mets have the better RIP, WHIP and WAR.
Edge – NYM
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
4.97
|
3
|
0.321
|
7
|
100
|
13
|
-0.3
|
12
|
0.178
|
8
|
9.9%
|
7
|
22.9%
|
7
|
NYM
|
3.38
|
29
|
0.305
|
18
|
96
|
18
|
-9.5
|
19
|
0.124
|
29
|
9.2%
|
12
|
22.6%
|
6
|
The Dbacks have the much better offense, but if deGrom is “on”, it won’t matter.
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: Yes, the price is too high and yes, the Mets haven’t been very good in deGroms starts, but still I’m backing deGrom. He’s so much better than Riley Smith that it’s almost embarrassing. Even the pathetic Mets should be able to score some runs on Smith.
Pick – NYM 1st 5
CIN @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
CIN
|
Mahle - R
|
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
53
|
1.11
|
3.23
|
3.11
|
3.82
|
3.55
|
3.22
|
0.295
|
0.290
|
CLEV
|
Hentges - L
|
|
|
|
|
1.78
|
5.00
|
5.31
|
7.77
|
4.35
|
3.82
|
0.458
|
0.459
|
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
Not relevant 1st 5 bet
Offenses
Edge – CIN
Conclusion: The Red have the better offense and the better starting pitcher.
Pick – CIN 1st 5
MIL @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
1:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
MIL
|
Anderson - L
|
|
(2/4)
|
(2/4)
|
44
|
1.27
|
4.15
|
6.81
|
5.12
|
4.10
|
4.58
|
0.320
|
0.408
|
MIA
|
Alcantara - R
|
|
(6/7)
|
(1/7)
|
58
|
1.01
|
2.95
|
2.52
|
3.41
|
3.68
|
3.77
|
0.259
|
0.262
|
Edge - MIA
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
BB%
|
MIL
|
0.50
|
13
|
1.32
|
17
|
0.4
|
15
|
76.0%
|
9
|
8
|
6
|
21
|
5
|
3
|
22.1%
|
8.2%
|
MIA
|
0.44
|
9
|
1.12
|
5
|
0.4
|
15
|
73.6%
|
11
|
4
|
5
|
18
|
9
|
7
|
24.1%
|
11.9%
|
The Marlin have the slightly better RIP and WHIP, but the Brewers have the better strand and save rate.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
3.91
|
24
|
0.301
|
22
|
88
|
24
|
-18.8
|
27
|
0.153
|
18
|
9.0%
|
14
|
27.2%
|
27
|
MIA
|
4.23
|
17
|
0.298
|
23
|
91
|
20
|
-12.3
|
20
|
0.137
|
25
|
8.7%
|
17
|
25.7%
|
23
|
This is also close, but I give the Marlins a small edge based on a slightly better wRC+, ORAA and RPG. I wou;dn’t make a bet based on these two offenses.
Edge – MIA slight.
Conclusion: In Alcantara, I believe
Pick – MIA 1st 5 ML
CHI WS @ KC
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
CHI WS
|
Giolito - R
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
48
|
1.30
|
4.99
|
4.09
|
4.25
|
3.32
|
3.54
|
0.318
|
0.329
|
KC
|
Minor - L
|
|
(3/6)
|
(3/6)
|
46
|
1.32
|
5.23
|
4.71
|
5.04
|
4.58
|
4.44
|
0.332
|
0.350
|
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
BB%
|
CHW
|
0.53
|
19
|
1.33
|
20
|
0.7
|
12
|
70.8%
|
16
|
5
|
6
|
15
|
5
|
8
|
25.0%
|
9.3%
|
KC
|
0.60
|
25
|
1.44
|
25
|
-0.3
|
25
|
69.9%
|
20
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
6
|
4
|
24.1%
|
7.5%
|
Well, it looks like I’ve found another bullpen that’s worse than the White Sox. It’s the Royals!
Edge – CHI WS (I can’t believe it!)
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CH WS
|
4.93
|
4
|
0.322
|
5
|
112
|
2
|
18.3
|
1
|
0.132
|
27
|
10.1%
|
6
|
23.6%
|
15
|
KC
|
4.43
|
15
|
0.311
|
14
|
101
|
10
|
4.2
|
9
|
0.163
|
14
|
8.4%
|
18
|
22.0%
|
4
|
The White Sox have the lowest fly ball rate in the league, but still have managed to have managed to have great offensive success. They’ve only hit 25 HRs because of the low number of fly balls, but they are carrying a .321 BABIP and one of the highest walk rates in baseball. That seems relevant going up against Keller.
Edge – None
Conclusion: The offenses are both potent, and I don’t trust either bullpen. I’m giving the starting pitching edge to Giolito. The White Sox are the better team.
Pick – CHI WS ML
Be bak later with the late game. If I’m not back by 4:00 , I also on the Dodger 1st 5 because Trevor Bauer v Jose Quintana is a mismatch. Quintana’s been just awful.
Have a great day! Gotta run!