TB @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
9:30
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
TB
|
Yarbrough - L
|
(1/4)
|
(3/4)
|
42
|
1.29
|
4.86
|
3.14
|
4.34
|
4.26
|
0.310
|
0.320
|
22.9%
|
7.02
|
1.62
|
0.54
|
LAA
|
Ohtani - R
|
(2/3)
|
(0/3)
|
52
|
1.39
|
3.29
|
3.99
|
3.69
|
4.56
|
0.272
|
0.333
|
45.8%
|
15.15
|
8.56
|
0.66
|
Andrew Kittredge will work as the Rays' opening pitcher in front of bulk reliever Ryan Yarbrough in this game. Yarbrough has appeared in 6 games this season for the Rays, 4 starts and 2 out of the bullpen. He has given up 21 runs (18 earned) on 37 hits and 6 walks over 33.1 innings, with 26 Ks. His WHIP is mediocre and his ERA is high, while his ERA metrics are all a little lower than that high ERA. Part of that is due to his very low 57.9% strand rate. As that normalizes, his ERA should come down some. Another factor is Tarbrough’s pedestrian 18.1% K rate.
Ohtani has only started 3 games for the Angels this season, with 2 grading as above average and 1 below average. In those 3 starts Ohtani has given up 7 runs (5 earned) on 6 hits and a whopping 13 walks over 13.2 innings with a stellar 23 Ks. Ohtani obviously has really good stiff, but poor command and control is an equally obvious concern.
If Ohtani has a reasonable semblance of controls, he is the better pitcher, but if not, all bets are off.
Edge – LAA maybe
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
0.54
|
17
|
1.29
|
17
|
0.5
|
13
|
8
|
7
|
10
|
6
|
18
|
67.2%
|
27
|
21.5%
|
28
|
8.4%
|
8
|
LAA
|
0.55
|
19
|
1.36
|
21
|
0.6
|
11
|
9
|
3
|
5
|
5
|
8
|
67.8%
|
26
|
23.2%
|
23
|
8.9%
|
12
|
Neither pen has been very good this season.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
4.10
|
17
|
0.298
|
22
|
98
|
13
|
-5.2
|
15
|
0.145
|
20
|
8.9%
|
12
|
26.6%
|
24
|
LAA
|
4.81
|
7
|
0.324
|
7
|
114
|
1
|
16.2
|
2
|
0.169
|
9
|
6.5%
|
30
|
20.9%
|
2
|
The Angels possesss a top 10 offense, while the Rays are middle of the pack.
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: The one thing that I am sure of is that offensively, the Angels are the much better team. The bullpens are both crap and the starting pitcher matchup is a crapshoot. If Ohtani can limit the walks, the Angels will have an edge, but because of his proclivity for Ks and walks Ohtani will probably throw a lot of pitches and as a reslt won’t go all that deep and have to turn the game over to a bullpen that I don’t trust. I’ll take my chances with Ohtani and the Angel bats for 5 innings.
Pick – LAA 1st 5 ML (-121 for 1 unit)