As I post this, we have a win with the Rockies and a push with the Red.
MIL @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
MIL
|
Peralta - R
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
60
|
1.00
|
2.25
|
3.00
|
3.33
|
2.99
|
0.264
|
0.250
|
29.4%
|
14.46
|
4.50
|
0.96
|
PHIL
|
Anderson - R
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
44
|
1.43
|
5.40
|
4.82
|
5.16
|
4.91
|
0.330
|
0.401
|
37.3%
|
7.89
|
4.15
|
1.25
|
Peralta has started 5 games for the Brewers and 4 of them graded as above average, with just one graded as blelow average. Peralta has an excellent WHIP, ERA and wOBA. His ERA metrics are a little higher than his ERA but still very good and his expected wOBA is actually a little better than his actual one. Peralta’s 40.2% K rate is elite, but his 12.5% walk rate is the only visible blemish on his resume.
Anderson has started 5 games for the Phils, with just 2 above average outings and 3 below average ones. Anderson doesn’t miss many bats and the 10 walks in less than 22 innings is too many for a pitch to contact type pitcher. That’s one reason why Anderson’s WHIP, ERA, ERA metrics and wOBA are all high. Even worse is that his expected wOBA is more than 70 points higher than his already high real wOBA.
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
0.54
|
17
|
1.39
|
22
|
0.0
|
21
|
5
|
3
|
8
|
3
|
20
|
75.5%
|
9
|
25.0%
|
13
|
12.2%
|
24
|
PHIL
|
0.59
|
25
|
1.33
|
20
|
-0.2
|
26
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
10
|
71.3%
|
18
|
24.8%
|
14
|
9.0%
|
13
|
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
4.04
|
19
|
0.298
|
22
|
86
|
26
|
-19.9
|
28
|
0.156
|
18
|
8.7%
|
15
|
27.4%
|
28
|
PHIL
|
3.86
|
25
|
0.298
|
22
|
86
|
26
|
-14.4
|
23
|
0.144
|
21
|
8.5%
|
18
|
27.0%
|
26
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: Neither of these offenses scares anyone. They both stink. However when we get to the pitching side, the Brewers have the edge in the bullpen qnd at starting pitcher. , I’ve got to go with Nola.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 RL (-105 for 1 unit) and MIL full game ML (-132 for 1 unit)
LAD @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
7:30
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
vOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
LAD
|
Buehler - R
|
(3/5)
|
(1/5)
|
58
|
0.96
|
3.16
|
3.08
|
3.35
|
3.27
|
0.271
|
0.342
|
44.3%
|
8.90
|
0.57
|
1.15
|
CHI C
|
Alzolay - R
|
(3/4)
|
(1/4)
|
53
|
0.90
|
4.71
|
3.78
|
3.53
|
3.53
|
0.259
|
0.357
|
27.5%
|
9.86
|
2.57
|
1.29
|
This season, Buehler has made 5 starts and 3 were above average with just 1 being below average. He has given up more than 2 runs in just 1 of his starts. Buehler has given up a total of just 11 runs on 28 hits and 12walks over 31.1 innings with 31 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both very good as is his wOBA. His ERA metrics are about a run higher but still very good. Buehler’s 25.4% K rate is down, but it is accompanied by a tremendous 1.6% walk rate. Buehler’s K rate is a concern, but he has fanned 9 and 10 in his last two starts after fanning just 4 in each of his first three. Buelers 44.3% hard contact rate is another concern. It is the highest of his career, and that’s with a deader ball.
Azolay has also pitched well for the Cubs this season, with 3 above average starts in his 4 outings and just one below average one. His WHIP is even a little better than Buehler’s. but his ERA is significantly higher. However, his ERA metrics his ERA metrics are all about a full run lower than that bloated ERA. By, contrast,Alzolay has a solid wOBA, but his expected wOBA is almost 100 points higher than the real one.
Buehler has the better game score average, the better ERA, ERA metrics and xWOBA.
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
0.51
|
15
|
1.48
|
27
|
0.5
|
13
|
4
|
7
|
9
|
8
|
22
|
72.2%
|
12
|
23.4%
|
21
|
12.8%
|
28
|
CHC
|
0.48
|
12
|
1.40
|
23
|
0.4
|
16
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
2
|
15
|
76.8%
|
7
|
27.7%
|
5
|
12.6%
|
27
|
If the Dodgers have a weakness, it’s their bullpen and tht weakness reared it’s ugly head again last night as the Ddogers pen gave up both the tying and winning runs in the 8th a 9th innings of a 4-3 loss. Their RIP is ranked a mediocre 15th and their WHIP is ranked a poor #27, with a 4-7 record and as many blown saves as saves. The Cubs don’t have a strong bullpen, but on paper, it’s better than the Dodgers crappy pen.
Edge – CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.10
|
3
|
0.331
|
2
|
111
|
4
|
15.5
|
3
|
0.169
|
9
|
11.7%
|
1
|
23.5%
|
14
|
CHI C
|
4.61
|
13
|
0.313
|
10
|
97
|
16
|
-3.6
|
13
|
0.181
|
5
|
9.9%
|
7
|
26.9%
|
25
|
Until Sunday’s 16-run eruption, the Dodgers had struggled with the bats and in this series, they’ve struggled with the mediocre Cub. Despite that, they still rank in the top 5 in RPG, wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and walk rate. It’s just a matter of time before this team gets hot, and when that happens, the rest of the league better watch out. I just don’t know when that will happen.
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers looked awful yesterday, but on paper they still have the better offense, even with their struggles. The bullpen edge goes to the Cubs by default. And I’m giving Buehler the edge over Alzolay. The Dodgers can’t be as bad as they’ve looked in this series. They need a stopper and I think Buehler delivers a strong outing. I’ll lay the half a run and hope that the Dodger bats wake up early.
Pick – LAD 1st 5 RL (-115 fir 1 unit)
CLEV @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8:10
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
CLEV
|
Bieber - R
|
(6/6)
|
(0/6)
|
67
|
0.99
|
2.76
|
2.49
|
2.35
|
2.53
|
0.240
|
0.261
|
29.8%
|
14.46
|
2.98
|
1.06
|
KC
|
Singer - R
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
51
|
1.20
|
3.09
|
3.41
|
3.59
|
3.76
|
0.270
|
0.317
|
27.4%
|
10.03
|
3.47
|
0.77
|
Bieber the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, has started 6 games for the Indians and all 6 were above average with an average game score of 67His WHIP, ERA, wOBA,ERA metrics and expected wOBA are all superb as is his his elite 39.5% K rate.
Singer has started 5 games for the Royals, with just 2 above average outings and 3 that graded as below average. His numbers are actually decent, but just not as good as Bieber’s.
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
CLE
|
0.34
|
3
|
1.12
|
5
|
0.7
|
9
|
3
|
3
|
8
|
2
|
12
|
84.6%
|
1
|
27.2%
|
7
|
9.9%
|
17
|
KC
|
0.56
|
21
|
1.42
|
24
|
0.0
|
21
|
6
|
1
|
9
|
3
|
17
|
70.2%
|
20
|
23.2%
|
23
|
11.7%
|
23
|
Both bullpens have performed well this season, but the Indians hold most of the edges.
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
3.96
|
22
|
0.291
|
27
|
87
|
23
|
-15.0
|
24
|
0.177
|
6
|
8.9%
|
12
|
23.4%
|
12
|
KC
|
4.62
|
11
|
0.306
|
15
|
98
|
13
|
0.7
|
12
|
0.159
|
15
|
8.4%
|
20
|
21.7%
|
3
|
If only the Indians could hit, but they can’t. They rank in the bottom third of the league in RPG, wOBA and wRC+. The Roayls offense is pretty mediocre, but still better than the Tribe.
Edge KC
Conclusion: The Royals do have the better offense, mostly by default, but the Indians have the better bullpen and most importantly Shane Bieber. The price is high for a1st 5 ML, so I’ll lay the half run and hope that Bieber gets a little early help.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 ML (-125 for 2 units)
PITT @ SD
8:10
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
vOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
PITT
|
Brubaker - R
|
(4/5)
|
(1/5)
|
56
|
1.02
|
2.63
|
3.91
|
3.25
|
3.12
|
0.298
|
0.314
|
28.8%
|
9.88
|
1.65
|
1.32
|
SD
|
Darvish - R
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
64
|
0.89
|
2.13
|
3.08
|
3.55
|
3.13
|
0.258
|
0.284
|
32.9%
|
11.61
|
2.61
|
0.95
|
Brubaker (2-2) has started 5 games for the Pirates this season. $ graded as above average and just one graded as below average. That’s left him with a fine WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics are all higher than his stellar ERA, but still good. One reason for the discrepancy is Brubaker’s higher than league average 92.1% strand rate. As that decreases, his ERA could go up some. Brubaker’s 26.5% K rate is good and he couples it with a solid 4.4% walk rate. Brubaker’s done a very good job of limiting his hard contact and HRs. Unfortunately, he just can’t count on getting much support from the Pirates crappy offense and it’s cost him.
Darvish has started 6 games for the Padres this season. He struggled some in his first start against the Diamondbacks, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits and a walk over 4.2 shaky innings with 6 Ks, but has since had five straight above average starts. In those 5 starts, Darvish has given up a total of 5 runs on 15 hits and 11 walks over 33.1 innings, with 43 Ks. His WHIP, ERA and WOBA are all superb and his ERA metrics and expected wOBA are almost al as good, as is his 32.9% K rate. What also stands out so far is the impressive 49/11 K/BB ratio from a guy that used to have control and command issues.
Edge - SD
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
PIT
|
0.47
|
9
|
1.10
|
3
|
0.8
|
8
|
6
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
13
|
68.7%
|
24
|
25.8%
|
9
|
8.3%
|
5
|
SDP
|
0.41
|
6
|
1.14
|
6
|
1.2
|
4
|
9
|
6
|
11
|
4
|
18
|
78.8%
|
4
|
29.9%
|
3
|
8.3%
|
5
|
Edge – SD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PITT
|
3.78
|
27
|
0.295
|
25
|
86
|
26
|
-14.3
|
22
|
0.127
|
29
|
9.4%
|
10
|
23.4%
|
12
|
SD
|
4.00
|
21
|
0.304
|
18
|
93
|
18
|
-6.1
|
18
|
0.131
|
28
|
10.5%
|
3
|
22.1%
|
4
|
Edge – SD
Conclusion: The Padres appear to have all the edges here tonight, the better of two struggling offense, the better bullpen and the better starting pitcher. It didn’t help last night, but the numbers say that it should tonight.
Pick – SD 1st 5 RL a(-130 for 2 units)