NYM @ STL
Starting Pitchers
5:15
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
NYM
|
Stroman - R
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
56
|
0.95
|
1.84
|
2.70
|
3.23
|
3.52
|
0.225
|
0.304
|
34.9%
|
7.06
|
1.84
|
0.31
|
STL
|
Kim – L
|
(2/3)
|
(1/3)
|
52
|
1.32
|
3.29
|
2.16
|
2.90
|
3.05
|
0.317
|
0.398
|
36.6%
|
10.54
|
0.66
|
0.66
|
Stroman has started 6 games and has 4 above average outing, and just 2 below average ones. His WHIP, ERA and wOBA are all very good, as are his ERA metrics, but his expected wOBA is about 80 points higher than his actual wOBA.
Kim has started 3 games for the Cards with 2 above aveage outings and one below average one. His wHIP and eRA are also solid, and his ERA metrics are all lower than his ERA, but his wOBA is high and his expected wOBA is about 80 points higher.
These are two good pitchers.
Edge – None close
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
0.58
|
24
|
1.25
|
11
|
1.6
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
60.5%
|
30
|
30.0%
|
2
|
9.2%
|
14
|
STL
|
0.50
|
14
|
1.28
|
15
|
0.7
|
9
|
5
|
2
|
8
|
2
|
14
|
71.4%
|
15
|
24.5%
|
15
|
13.6%
|
29
|
I’m not impressed with either pen here, but the numbers do give the Cards a slight edge.
Edge – STL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYM
|
3.23
|
29
|
0.305
|
17
|
95
|
17
|
-9.4
|
19
|
0.122
|
30
|
8.7%
|
15
|
23.6%
|
15
|
STL
|
4.71
|
10
|
0.302
|
20
|
92
|
20
|
-10.5
|
21
|
0.167
|
12
|
8.5%
|
18
|
23.8%
|
17
|
The Mets hitters have had some bad luck this season. They’ve scored 1.5 less runs per game than the Cards, but have the better wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA? I’d say the Cards have been damned lucky.
Edge - None
Conclusion: I don’t think that either offense will light up the scoreboard. The Cards may rank 10th in run per game, but the rank 20th in both wOBA and WRC+. The Mets offense is also nothing to write home about. As mentioned, I don’t think much of either bullpen. That leaves the two starting pitchers and both are quality pitchers facing relatively weak lineups. This total has remained constant since I bet it this morning, but the juice has gone up, so I guess it’s a decent wager.
Pick – 1st 5 Under 4 (-115 for 1 unit)
ARIZ @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
ARIZ
|
Weaver - R
|
(1/5)
|
(4/5)
|
46
|
1.29
|
4.91
|
5.02
|
4.36
|
4.46
|
0.333
|
0.387
|
45.5%
|
8.06
|
3.16
|
1.75
|
MIA
|
Lopez - R
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
58
|
1.10
|
2.34
|
3.14
|
3.40
|
3.75
|
0.267
|
0.305
|
29.0%
|
8.83
|
2.60
|
0.78
|
Weaver has started 5 games for the Dbacks, but just one of those starts was above average with the other 4 all below average. His WHIP is mediocre and his ERA and wOBA are both gigh. Weaver’s ERA metrics are consistent with that high ERA and his expected wOBA is even higher than his actual wOBA. Throw in a mediocre 20.9% K rate, a high 8.2% walk rate and a very high hard contact rate, and there’s really not much to like about Luke Weaver.
Lopez has started 6 games for the Marlins and 5 of the 6 have been above average, with just 1 below average one. His EHIP, ERA and wOBA are all excellent, and his ERA metrics and xwOBA, while all a little higher, are all solid . Throw in a higher K rate, a lower walk rate and a lot less hard contact and Lopez looks like a solid bet.
Lopez has pretty much all the statistical edges.
Edge - MIA
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
0.63
|
27
|
1.44
|
26
|
-0.4
|
28
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
16
|
68.9%
|
23
|
22.8%
|
25
|
9.4%
|
15
|
MIA
|
0.47
|
9
|
1.10
|
3
|
0.2
|
17
|
7
|
7
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
71.3%
|
16
|
23.3%
|
22
|
7.1%
|
1
|
The Dbacks bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. They rank in the bottom five in RIP, WHIP and WAR.
Edge – MIA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARIZ
|
5.36
|
2
|
0.325
|
5
|
103
|
9
|
3.6
|
10
|
0.185
|
3
|
10.0%
|
4
|
22.4%
|
5
|
MIA
|
3.96
|
22
|
0.292
|
26
|
87
|
23
|
-16.4
|
26
|
0.132
|
27
|
8.9%
|
12
|
26.1%
|
23
|
There’s no comparison here. The Dbacks possess a top 10 offense, while the Narlins have a bottom 10 offense.
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: This is again the classic case of a team with the better pitching faces a team with the much better offense. That makes this a tough call, but I’ve always believed that good pitching will shut down good offenses, more often than not and I like this Marlins rotation..
Pick – MIA 1st 5 ML (-125 for 2 units)