For what it’s worth, for a while yesterday looked like it was going to be another bad day, but it ended up as nothing but another break even day. My early plays did not go well. The Brewers fell behind early 4-1 , but cane roaring back. It was 4-3 going into the 9th and the Brewers had the bases loaded with 2 outs, but could not push across the tying run. The Rangers squandered way too many scoring opportunities. They were just 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position. Finally there was the pathetic Mets, who jumped out to an early 5-2 lead in the 3rd, but couldn’t hold it. I didn’t love any of these plays so I only risked a unit on each, but I did love the Dodgers, who were postponed, and the Rays with Tyler Glasnow. I had 3 units on the Rays and Glasnow did not disappoint.
The bottom line as that my Monday ended up a disappointing -0.50 units. I am embarrassed because I am now a shocking –60.37 units for the season. That is beyond atrocious. Even If I tried to lose, I doubt I could have deliberately done that badly. So where do I go from here?
I still believe in my process and I still believe that I can and will turn this around, but it won’t be quick or easy. I’m not stupid enough to try to win it back quickly. I’ll be looking to gradually reverse the losses.
As bad as they’ve done so far, I have a parlay card for today and here it is.
Parlays
|
LAD 1st 5 ML (game 1)
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
(+119)
|
2
|
|
LAD ML (Game 1)
|
SD ML
|
(+120)
|
2
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
PHIL 1sy 5
|
(+159 )
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
NYM 1st 5
|
(+145)
|
1
|
|
PHIL 1st 5
|
NYM 1st 5
|
(+140)
|
1
|
The way I see it, the Dodgers (at the Cubs) and the Padres (v the Pirates). I would have included the Dodger second game, but there’s still no line for that game.
As for the other three teams, I’m using them I a small round robin. The Phils should cover, but they are not a good team and I’ve watched Nola blow 5th inning leads in both of his last two starts. The Marlins certin have the better pitcher, but the weaker offense. Then’s there’s the Mets. deGrom is superb, no ifs, ands, or buts about it, but the Mets just don’t score for him, so even when he ptches great (which he usually does) it’s never quite good enough. I’m not confident about these three teams. They are probably overpriced, so I’ll take the better odds with the parlays and hope lightening strike right three times.
Here are the first two wite-ups.
LAD @ CHI C
Starting Pitchers
2:20
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
vOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
LAD
|
Kershaw - L
|
(4/6)
|
(2/6)
|
63
|
0.91
|
2.09
|
2.49
|
3.10
|
3.24
|
0.234
|
0.264
|
31.4%
|
9.08
|
1.16
|
0.70
|
CHI C
|
Hendricks - R
|
(1/5)
|
(4/5)
|
30
|
1.76
|
7.54
|
8.32
|
4.76
|
4.57
|
0.445
|
0.422
|
31.2%
|
8.34
|
3.18
|
3.97
|
Kershaw had an awful spring training and that carried over into his first regular season start at the Rockies, in which he got shelled for 6 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits and 1 walk over 5.2 innings. However since then Kershaw has made 5 more starts, giving up a total of just 4 runs on 20 hits and 4 walks over 33 innings with 37 Ks. I guess that he’s righted the ship.
On the other side, what Hendricks has always excelled at was limiting walks, HRs, and hard contact. That made him the ultimate finesse pitcher with a proven track record of durability and consistency, but not this season. Hendricks has been nothing short of a disaster for the Cubs, with a very high WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest of his career, as is his 3.97% HR/9 rate. While Hendricks did most of his struggling on the road last season, with a 1.27 WHIP, a 4.06 ERA and a .326 wOBA way from Wrigley, he hasn’t been very good at home this season with a 1.53 WHIP, a 5.68 ERA and a .406 wOBA at Wrigley this season.
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
0.51
|
15
|
1.48
|
27
|
0.5
|
13
|
4
|
7
|
9
|
8
|
22
|
72.2%
|
12
|
23.4%
|
21
|
12.8%
|
28
|
CHC
|
0.48
|
12
|
1.40
|
23
|
0.4
|
16
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
2
|
15
|
76.8%
|
7
|
27.7%
|
5
|
12.6%
|
27
|
If the Dodgers have a weakness, it’s their bullpen. Their RIP is ranked a mediocre 15th and their WHIP is ranked a poor #27, with a 4-7 record and almost as many blown saves as saves. The Cubs don’t have a strong bullpen, but on paper, it’s better than the Dodgers shaky pen.
Edge – CHI C
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.10
|
3
|
0.331
|
2
|
111
|
4
|
15.5
|
3
|
0.169
|
9
|
11.7%
|
1
|
23.5%
|
14
|
CHI C
|
4.61
|
13
|
0.313
|
10
|
97
|
16
|
-3.6
|
13
|
0.181
|
5
|
9.9%
|
7
|
26.9%
|
25
|
Until Sunday’s 16-run eruption, the Dodgers have struggled with the bats. However, they still rank in the top 5 in RPG, wOBA, wRC+, ORAA and walk rate. It’s just a matter of time before this team gets hot, and when that happens, watch out.
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: The Dodgers have the better offense, even with their struggles. The bullpen edge goes to the Cubs, but Clayton Kershaw is much better than the Kyle Hendricks that we’ve seen so far this season.
I’ll parlay them with the other team that I believe has a great shot of winning today, the Padres
Pick – LAD 1st 5 ML parlay with SD 1st 5 ML (+119 for 2 units)
Pick – LAD ML parlay with SD ML (+120 for 2 units)
ARIZ @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP 2021
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
vOBA
|
xwOBA
|
HC%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
ARIZ
|
Smith - R
|
(1/2)
|
(1/2)
|
46
|
1.59
|
4.76
|
4.11
|
5.84
|
5.75
|
0.339
|
0.363
|
33.9%
|
3.71
|
3.18
|
0.53
|
MIA
|
Alcantara - R
|
(5/6
|
(1/6)
|
58
|
0.98
|
3.19
|
3.36
|
3.83
|
3.84
|
0.251
|
0.268
|
22.9%
|
8.84
|
2.70
|
0.74
|
Smith has started just 2 game. In those 2 starts, Smith has given up 5 runs on 14 hits and a walk over 10 innings against the Reds and the Padres. His 7 Ks and 6 walks on the season does not inspire much confidence and neither does the 14 hits in 10 innings.
Alcantara (1-2) has now started 6 games for the Marlins and he’s pitched well in 5 of them and poorly ( 4 ER in 6 IP) in just 1. The result is a very good WHIP, a good ERA, and ERA metrics that are totally consistent with his ERA. Alcantara has a solid 24.7% K ratealong with a 46.8% GB rate and a lower than 23% hard hit rate. The only blemish is Alcantara’s 7.5% walk rate that is still high. Alcantara only stated 7 regular season games for the Marlins last season. He made 1 start on July 24, then hit the COVID-19 IL. He didn’t return until August 30. His first start after returning was bad, but after that one poor outing, he reeled off 5 straight good starts.
Edge – MIA
Bullpens
Team
|
RIP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
HLD
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
ARI
|
0.63
|
27
|
1.44
|
26
|
-0.4
|
28
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
7
|
16
|
68.9%
|
23
|
22.8%
|
25
|
9.4%
|
15
|
MIA
|
0.47
|
9
|
1.10
|
3
|
0.2
|
17
|
7
|
7
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
71.3%
|
16
|
23.3%
|
22
|
7.1%
|
1
|
The Dbacks bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. They rank in the bottom five in RIP, WHIPand WAR.
Edge – MIA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ARIZ
|
5.36
|
2
|
0.325
|
5
|
103
|
9
|
3.6
|
10
|
0.185
|
3
|
10.0%
|
4
|
22.4%
|
5
|
MIA
|
3.96
|
22
|
0.292
|
26
|
87
|
23
|
-16.4
|
26
|
0.132
|
27
|
8.9%
|
12
|
26.1%
|
23
|
There’s no comparison here. The Dbacks possess a top 10 offense, while the Narlins have a bottom 10 offense.
Edge – ARIZ
Conclusion: This is the classic case of a team with the better pitching faces a team with the much better offense. That makes this a tough call, but I’ve always believed that good pitching will shut down good offenses, more often than not.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 in a series of parlays with the Phils and Mets.