LAA @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
Alex Cobb ® v Cristian Javier (R)
Cobb (1-0) has started two games for the Angels this season. In his first start against the White Sox, Cobb scattered 8 hits and a walk, but gave up just 3 runs over 6 innings with 7 Ks in the Angels 5-3 win. In his second start at KC, Cobb again gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk over 5.2 innings with 7 more Ks and 12 GBs. Cobb has rediscovered his splitter and is now throwing it 45% of the time. He started 7 games for the Orioles in 2020, with 6 good starts and 3 poor ones. Cobb started 7 games for the Orioles in 2020, with 6 good starts and 3 poor ones. He posted a mediocre 1.34 WHIP and 4.30 ERA and his ERA metrics were pretty consistent with that ERA, but on the plus side, he kept the ball on the ground posting an impressive 54.5% GB rate. However, his 8% walk rate was his highest since 2011. In his three seasons with the Orioles injuries limited Cobb to just 41 starts with an ugly 7-22 record, a high 1.42 WHIP and a 4.69 ERA. His ERA metrics weren’t much better. The only question that I have is how much of that was really on Cobb, and how much was on the Orioles, who totally sucked back then. Cobb’s best days were with the Rays from 2011-2017. That seems like a long time ago, but the truth is that he’s only 33 and just three seasons removed from the quality starter that he was with the Rays, and in terms of wear and tear on his arm, even less. Another plus is that his injuries had nothing to do with his arm, so there’s definitely some legitimate upside potential, even more so since he’s rediscovered that splitter.
Javier has also started two games for the Astros this season. Hhe lasted just 3.2 innings in his first start against the A’s, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and striking out 4. In his second start, also against the As, but this time in OAK, Javier tossed 5 scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings , while striking out 7. As a rookie in 2020, Javier started 10 games for the Astros, posting a 5-2 record with 8 good starts and just 2 poor ones, with an excellent 0.99 WHIP and solid 3.48 ERA, but a couple of his ERA metrics were about a run higher. A very low .194 BABIP probably helped him some, and I doubt that it will be that good again. His 25.2% K rate was solid, but his 8.4% walk rate was on the high side. The book on Javier is that he’s probably better suited to a bullpen role because he struggles if he has to face a lineup a second time. In his young career, his WHIP jumps from 0.67 the first time to 1.31 the second time through. His ERA goes from 2.12 to 4.56. His wOBA against goes from .219 to .330 and his hard contact rate jumps 21.9% to a whopping 52.8%.
Edge – LAA
Bullpens
On paper it looks like the Angels have a slight edge, but seeing what the Angels pen did the other night, I don’t trust either bullpen enough, so I made this a 1st 5 play.
Edge – LAA very slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
5.31
|
3
|
0.335
|
4
|
119
|
2
|
13.5
|
3
|
0.179
|
7
|
7.5%
|
26
|
22.5%
|
6
|
HOU
|
4.53
|
13
|
0.312
|
11
|
106
|
9
|
3.9
|
9
|
0.157
|
16
|
8.0%
|
24
|
18.7%
|
1
|
Other than walking slightly less and striking out a little more, the Angels have all the edges here. Making matters worse, the Astros, have stopped hitting since Altive went down, and he’s still out tonight. I heard in a podcast today that the Astros have posted a wRC+ of just 40 without Altuve.
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: I want no part of the full game with these two bullpens, but the Angles are the better hitting team, especially right now. As for the two starting pitchers, while it may take a little while, I expect the Angels to get to Javier when he hits the second time through their order. I also expect Cobb and his rediscovered splitter to keep the currently punchless Astros in check for at least 5 innings.
Pick – LAA 1st 5 ML (+118 for 2 units) and 1st 5 Under 5 (-117 for 2 units)