PHIL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
Zack Wheeler ® v
Wheeler (1-1) has started two games for the Phils this season, both against the Braves. In his first start at home, Wheeler was tremendous, tossing 7 scoreless innings and giving up just 1 hit, with 10 Ks. Wheeler’s second start in ATL wasn’t quite as easy. He gave up 3 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks over just 4,2 innings, with 4 Ks.
Zack Wheeler pitched really well for the Phils last season. He started 11 games and delivered a 4-2 record with 10 quality starts and just 1 poor one (his last). He gave up 26 runs (23 earned) on 67 hits and 16 walks over 71 innings with 52 Ks. Wheeler finished with a solid 1.17 and fine 2.92 ERA. His ERA metrics were all higher than his ERA, but still good. Of particular interest is that Wheeler’s 18.4% K rate was down 5.2% from 2019, but his GB rate is up 12.7%. Additionally, his 23.1% hard contact rate was down over 6%, so he didn’t get hit hard. Wheeler traded the Ks for GBs and that worked out quite well.
David Peterson has started 1 game for the Mets this season and it wasn’t pretty. Peterson gave up 6 runs on 7 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks over 4 innings, against these same Phils, with 5 Ks.
Peterson started 9 games for the Mets with 5 good starts and 3 poor ones. Peterson gave up total of 20 runs (19earned) on 36 hits and 24 walks over 49.2 innings. That left him with a solid 1.21 WHIP and 3.44 ERA. However, Peterson’s ERA metrics were all about a full run higher than his mediocre ERA and that’s a concern. The big culprit there is Peterson’s very high 11.7% walk rate. If that continues, it will come back to bite him in the ass. Should more of those free passes end up scoring, we could see Peterson’s ERA shoot up closer to where his metrics are.
Edge – PHIL
Bullpen
The Phils pen appears to be much improved for the disaster that was their 2020 pen.
Edge PHIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
PHI
|
3.73
|
26
|
0.308
|
14
|
93
|
15
|
-2.0
|
15
|
0.157
|
15
|
7.3%
|
26
|
27.3%
|
24
|
NYM
|
3.43
|
28
|
0.302
|
16
|
93
|
15
|
-1.9
|
14
|
0.111
|
28
|
12.4%
|
2
|
23.7%
|
11
|
Neither of these teams have hit worth shit so far, but bsed on last season’s numbers, they will.
Edge – None
Conclusion: For me this one is simple. The offenses are both struggling now, but both are better than they’ve shown so far and either way they’re close. The Phil appear to have the better pen, but theor biggest edge is at starting pitcher. Wheeler v Peterson should be a mismatch qnd that’s how I bet it.
PHIL 1st 5
MIA @ ATL
MIA – Nick Neidert (R) v ATL - Charlie Morton (R)
Neidert has started 1 game for the Marlins this season qnd that was at the Mets. Neidert gave up just 1 run on 3 hit and 5 walks over 4.1 labored innings, with 3 Ks. What stands out to me are the 5 walks in just over 4 innings. That’s awful and Neidert was damned lucky that th Mets hitter were so damned inept. If he keeps walking batter at that rate, he’s gonna get burned badly, sooner rather than later.
Morton has started 2 games for the Braves this season and both were solid. In his first start at PHIL. Morton gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings, with 5 Ks. It wasn’t his finest hour, but hekept the Braves in the game. Morton was much sharper in his second start, also against the Phils in ATL. He gave up just 1 on 4 hits and a walk over 6 innings, with 7 Ks. My big concern with Morton, coming into this season, is that, at 37, he may not be able to match his 2020 season, but so far so good..
Morton started 9 games for the Rays during the regular season and 4 more in the postseason, posting a 5-3 record with 8 good starts and 3 poor ones. He gave up 28 runs (26 earned) on 61 hits and 15 walks over 58 innings with 65 Ks. Morton’s 1.12 WHIP was fine, but his 4.034 ERA was higher than we’re used to seeing from him. However his ERA metrics were all considerably lower than that ERA. That tells me that Moron actually pitched better than his ERA would suggest. His 24.7% K rate was still very good as was his low 29.8% hard contact rate.
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Edge – ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MIA
|
3.00
|
28
|
0.270
|
28
|
74
|
26
|
-8.9
|
25
|
0.100
|
29
|
8.6%
|
19
|
25.0%
|
14
|
ATL
|
4.00
|
20
|
0.294
|
24
|
83
|
23
|
-6.3
|
22
|
0.204
|
4
|
6.8%
|
28
|
27.1%
|
22
|
It’s kind of funny that the offensively challenged Marlins put up 14 last night. I very much doubt doubt that they’ll be able to do that against Morton tonight.
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Braves should have all the edges here, the better offense, the better bullpen and the much better pitcher. The Braves are too expensive to bet on the ML so I’ll use them in parlays.
Pick – ATL ML