BOS @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
BOS Eduardo Rodriguez (L) v MINN – Jose Berrios (R)
Rodriguez, who missed the entire 2020 season after being diagnosed with myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart linked to the coronavirus, has made 1 start at the Orioles for the Red Sox this season and it was decent. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits (2 HRs) and o walks over 5 innings with 7 Ks. The 7 Ks with 0 walks was particularly impressive.
Rodeiguez was awful in his first two 2019 starts (6 runs on 16 hits and 6 walks in just 8 innings), but he quickly righted the ship finishing with a 19-6 record and 23 good starts to just 8 poor ones. His 1.33 WHIP was mediocre, but his 3.81 ERA was lower than league average and his ERA metrics were all slightly higher than his ERA. His 24.8% K rate was very good, but his 8.7% walk rate left a lot to be desired. On the plus side, Rodriguez gave up very little (28.7%) hard contact, and for some inexplicable reason, the Red Sox also seemed seem to hit particularly well when he pitched. Rodriguez was “a saving grace” for the Red Sox making 34 starts and working over 200 innings for the first time in his career. That said, durability had been an ongoing issue for Rodriguez, who’s had an on-again, off-again knee issue in addition to the myocarditis that cost hm the 2020 season, so a repeat of his stellar 2019 is far from guaranteed.
Berrios (2-0) opened his season by tossing 6 perfect innings against the Brewers in MIL. Berrios was untouchable, giving up no hits and no walks, while striking out 12 in his 6 innings. He followed that up with a solid but less stellar effort at home against SEA, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks 5.2 innings with 8 Ks.
Berrios is coming off a season in which he struggled more than usual. finishing 5-4 in his 12 starts regular season starts, with 8 good ones to only 4 poor ones. He gave u[ a total of 28 runs on 57 hits and 26 walks over 63 innings with 68 Ks. He also had a strong outing in the Twins AL wild card game against the Astros, giving up just 1 ru2 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings with 4 Ks. That actually sounds pretty good, but his 1,32 WHIP was high and his 4.00 ERA and his expected ERA and ERA metrics were all consistent with, but slightly higher than his ERA. Berrios’ 25.1% K rate was fine, but his 9.6% walk rate was 3.5% higher than in 2019 and his highest since 2015.
That rodrigues has been able to come back and do what he’ss done is impressive and I give the guy all the credit in the world. That said, Berrios is pitching so dmaned well right now that I’m reluctant to be against him.
Edge - MINN
Bullpens
Eovaldi went 5 in the first game and Maeda went 4.1/ These two pens are pretty evenly matched. I don’t trust either bullpen.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
6.44
|
2
|
0.352
|
4
|
120
|
4
|
9.1
|
4
|
0.195
|
5
|
6.3%
|
29
|
21.5%
|
6
|
MIN
|
6.11
|
3
|
0.345
|
5
|
119
|
5
|
8.4
|
5
|
0.194
|
6
|
9.7%
|
13
|
26.7%
|
21
|
This is too damn close to give either side an edge.
Edge – None
Conclusion: The bullpens and the offenses look pretty damn close right now. Both teams can score runs. If there’s an edge to be found in this game, it’s at starting pitcher and it belongs to the Twins. What Rodriguez has done is pretty amazing, considering everything that he’s had to overcome. However, to this point Berrios has been the better starting pitcher, so for 5 innings, I’ll take my chances with the better starting pitcher and lay the half a run to get a better price. My only reservation is stepping in front of this Red Sox team that’s now won 8 in a row, but I’m still not sold on this BOS team and winning streaks inevitably end.
Pick – MINN 1st RL (-100 for 1 unit)