For what it’s worth and right now that's not very much, I’ve mostly been treading water so far this season. I had one really bad day (ppening day) and one really good day. Other than that, there’s nothing worth dwelling on. That changed last night. I got the shit beaten out of me. I was on the Dodgers and Padres (parlays) as well as the Yanks Brewers (1st 5) and Angels. I also had an under in the Yanks game. Only the Dodgers and the Brewers 1st 5 cashed. I blame myself for the Yanks loss. I should never have bet against Ryu. However, Blake Snell got beat up by that piece of excrement we call the Pirates? Dylan Bundy struggled against the Royals? It was a miserable evening. I finished -6.09 units for the day, and am now -9.98 units for the season. Fortunately, it’s a long season and it’s only April 14. There’s still plenty of time to turn this hot mess around.
Let’s move on to today’s MLB card. It can’t get much worse, so I’m going for it again. We have a full slate with a lot of day games and I like quite a few of them. Here’s the card as it stand now:
14-Apr
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Team #1
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Team #2
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Odds
|
Units
|
|
|
|
|
|
Two-Team Parlays
|
MIL 1st 5
|
SD 1st 5
|
(+127)
|
1
|
|
MIL 1st 5
|
SD ML
|
(+129)
|
1
|
|
MIL 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
(+127)
|
1
|
|
MIL 1st 5
|
ATL ML
|
(+121)
|
1
|
|
MIL 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
(+115)
|
1
|
|
SD 1st 5
|
HTN 1st 5
|
(+118)
|
1
|
|
SD 1st 5
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ATL ML
|
(+112)
|
1
|
|
SD 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
(+106)
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
HTN 1st 5
|
(+120)
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
ATL ML
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(+113)
|
1
|
|
SD ML
|
LAD ML
|
(+108
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1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
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ATL ML
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)+112)
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
(+106)
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1
|
|
ATL ML
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LAD ML
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(+106)
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1
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
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WASH 1st 5
|
|
(+113)
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0.5
|
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PHIL 1st 5
|
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(-117)
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1
|
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MINN 1st 5 RL (game 2)
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(+100)
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1
|
|
|
|
|
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Totals
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1st 5 BOS/MINN (game 1)
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(-100)
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0.5
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WASH @ STL
Starting Pitchers
WASH – Joe Ross (R) v STL – Adam Wainwright (R)
In his first start since 2019 and facing the mighty Dodgers in LA, Ross a lot better than the Nata had any right to expect. He matched zeros with Walker Buehler for 5 innings, giving up just 2 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 5 in what would eventually become a tough 1-0 Nats loss.
After a dominant MLB debut back in 2015-2016, injuries have kept Ross from coming anywhere close to his full potential. He started 2019 in the Nats bullpen after losing the 5th starter spot to the eminently forgettable Jeremy Hellickson. Ross made 27 appearances that season for the Nats, including 9 starts. As a starter Ross delivered a 4-2 record with 5 good starts and just 1 poor one. In those 9 starts, Ross gave up 15 runs on 43 hits and 22 walks in 44.2 innings, with 38 Ks. That resulted in a high 1.46 WHIP, but a good 3.02 ERA. His ERA metrics SIERA were all considerably higher that his excellent ERA. Ross pitched OK, but it was a small sample size and there were some troubling signs. The 11.2% walk rate was a big one and a big reason why Ross’ WHIP and ERA metrics were so high. His 7.5% HR/FB mark in a season that featured a league-wide HR fest, tells me that Ross also was very lucky. Now at a still young 27, Ross, who opted out of the 2020 season, gets another chance to prove that he’s a pitcher that the Nats can rely on. His first start was encouraging.
Wainwright, now 39, has started 2 games for the Cards this season. In hi first start at the Reds, Wainwright was terrible, giving up 6 runs on 7 hits (1 HR) and a walk and lasting just 2.2 innings. His second start, at mome against the Brewers was much better. He went 5 innings, giving up just 1 runon 5 hits and 2 walks with 5 Ks.
Wainwright pitched a lot better than I expected last season. He started 10 games for the Cards, posting a 5-3 record with 9 good start and just 1 poor one. That left him with an excellent 1.05 WHIP and 3.15 ERA. However Wainwright’s ERA metrics were all close to a full run higher than his splendid ERA. That’s probably because of his low .247 BABIP, which was 54 points lower than his career average. That probably won’t happen again. Another factor was his mediocre 20.6% K rate. He just can’t throw hard anymore. Still, all that given, Wainwright pitched really well, giving up more than 3 runs just once, generating a solid 43.4% GB rate, with a low 29.8% hard contact rate. He kept the Cards in games. The question is can he do it again?
I’m more inclined to give the edge to Ross. He’s 12 years younger than Wainwright and at this stage of the respective careers, probably has better stuff. Wainwright’s getting by on guile and experience, but that will only get you so far.
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Team
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W
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L
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SV/SVO
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HLD
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LOB%
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R/IP
|
Rank
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WAR
|
Rank
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WHIP
|
Rank
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ERA
|
Rank
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K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
WSN
|
1
|
2
|
(0/0)
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0
|
67.4%
|
0.56
|
16
|
-0.1
|
17
|
1.22
|
9
|
5.00
|
21
|
25.0%
|
13
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10.5%
|
15
|
STL
|
3
|
0
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(3/3)
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6
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71.7%
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0.47
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8
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0.1
|
10
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1.28
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15
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4.20
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14
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24.3%
|
15
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13.0%
|
24
|
This is close and still a very small sample size
Edge – STL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
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ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
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BB%
|
Rank
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K%
|
Rank
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WASH
|
3.12
|
29
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0.306
|
16
|
90
|
18
|
-4.3
|
18
|
0.104
|
30
|
6.7%
|
29
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23.9%
|
13
|
STL
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5.45
|
6
|
0.313
|
11
|
97
|
12
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-1.9
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13
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0.153
|
15
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10.2%
|
9
|
24.8%
|
15
|
Edge – STL
Conclusion: I have no faith in Wainwright at this stage of his carerer. It was only one start for Ross, but it was a good one and he has a lot more upside than Wainwright.
Pick - WASH 1st 5 ML
CHI C @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
CHI C – Jake Arrieta (R) v MIL – Corbin Burnes (R)
Arrieta has made 2 starts for the Cubs this season and both have been solid. In the first one at Wrigley, he led the Pirates to 1 run on 6 hits and 1 walk over 6 innings, with 5 Ks. Arrieta followed that up with another good outing at the Pirates, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks with 4 Ks. Before you get too excited understand tha tArrieta’s give up 13 hits and 4 walks in 12 innings. That’s not great and both starts were against the lowly Pirates. Yes, I am painfully aware that the Pirate beat up Blake Snell and the Padres last night. It happens, but the Pirates are still a very bad team and I am confident that when the season ends, they will be near or at the bottom of the standings.
Arrieta started 9 games for the Phils last season, finishing 4-4 with 6 good starts and 3 poor one. He gave up 25 runs on 51 hits (6 HRs) and 16 walks over 44.1 innings, with 32 Ks. Arrieta’s 1.51 WHIP and 5.08 ERA were both very high and his ERA metrics weren’t much better. He didn’t miss many bats (a 16.8% K rate),but did generate a nice 51.3% GB rate, so he kept the ball on the ground and mostly in the park. There was a time when Arrieta was an elite starting pitcher. He won the NL Cy Young award back in 2015, but in baseball terms, that was an eternity ago. At 35, Arrieta’s now nothing more than a passable innings-eater on the downside of his career and there’s not much chance of that changing.
Burnes has started 2 games for the Brewers this season and both have been very good. In his first start against the Twins, Burnes, who gave up just 1 run on 1 hit (a HR) over 6.1 innings with a whopping 11 Ks, was a hard luck loser because that was the game when Twins starts Joe Berrios tossed 6 perfect innings and fanned 12. In his second start at the Cards, Burnes tossed 6 scoreless innings, giving up just 1 hit and 9 walks, with 9 Ks. That’s a total of 1 run on 1 hit, 0 walks and 20 Ks in 12.1 innings!
Burnes is coming off a very good 2020 when he finished 4-1 with 7 good starts and 1 poor one. He gave up 15 runs (14 earned) on 37 hits and 24 walks over 59.2 innings, with a whopping 88 Ks. Burnes’ 1.02 WHIP and 2.11 ERA were both superb, as were his ERA metrics. His 36.7% K rate was elite and he only allowed a 30.4% hard contact rate. The only blemish last season was a 10% walk rate, but he’s yet to walk anyone this season. In 2018 Burnes had a big problem with HRs. He gave up a whopping 17 in just 49 innings, but in 2019 he gave up just 2 in just under 60 innings. This 26 –year old kid is a stud and he keeps getting better.
Edge - MIL
Bullpens
Edge – CHI
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
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Rank
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wOBA
|
Rank
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wRC+
|
Rank
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ORAA
|
Rank
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ISO
|
Rank
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BB%
|
Rank
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K%
|
Rank
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CHC
|
2.90
|
30
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0.265
|
29
|
66
|
30
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-12.9
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30
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0.160
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14
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9.9%
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9
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28.5%
|
28
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MIL
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4.40
|
15
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0.280
|
26
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74
|
26
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-10.8
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27
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0.140
|
21
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9.0%
|
17
|
27.8%
|
25
|
Edge – MIL by default
Conclusion: Both of these offenses have struggled out of the gate, but the Cubs have struggled more. Neither bullpen has been great, but they haven’t been awful either. The big edge in this game is at starting pitcher and that matchup’s not close
Pick – MIL 1st 5 parlay
BOS @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
BOS – Nathan Eovaldi (R) v MINN – Kenta Maeda (R)
Eovaldi (1-1) has started 2 games for the Red Sox this season and both were very good. In his first start against the Orioles, Eovaldi gave up just 1 run on 4 hits and a walk over 5.1 innings with 4 Ks and 9 GBs in a tough 3-0 loss. He followed that up with another strong outing against the Rays in which he gave up just 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks over 7 innings, with 7 Ks and 10 GBs. Eovaldi still possesses his 98-mph heater and now mixes in a more diverse pitch mix that makes the heater look even better. That and and not seeing a lineup a third time has really helped him.
Eovaldi started 9 games for the Red Sox last season this season, finishing 4-2 with 6 good starts and 2 poor ones. He gave up 20 runs on 51 hits (8 HRs) and 7 walks over 48.1 innings, with 52 Hs . The Ks are impressive, especially when combined with a nice 48.9% GB rate. Giving up more hits than innings pitched is a concern, but a lot less so with a very low 3.5%walk rate. That’s left him with a solid 1.20 WHIP and a 3.72 ERA. Eovali’s ERA metrics are all even lower than his ERA. That’s probably because his .336 BABIP was almost 30 points higher than his career average. If that normalizes the ERA should go down, closer to where his metrics say he should be. After years of falling short, Eovaldi finally showed some signs of living up to expectations.
Maeda (1-0) has started 2 games for the Twins this season and has pitched well in both. Hgave up 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks over 4.1 with 5 Ks in the Twins season opener a 302 win at DET. In his next outing Maeda gave up 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks over 4.1 innings, with 5 Ks
Maeda had a great season. He started 11 games for the Twins and all 11 were good. Maeda gave up 20 runs on 40 hits and 10 walks over 66.2 innings, with 89 Ks. He did not give up more than 3 runs in any of his starts, and in 7 of them, it was 2 runs or less. That gave Maeda an outstanding 0.75 WHIP and 270 ERA. His ERA metrics were totally consistent with his stellar ERA and his wOBA against was a superb .215. Maeda struck out over a better per inning and combined it with a 49% GB rate. He gave up very few walks (a 4% walk rate) or HRs and very little hard contact (21.5%). With the Twins, Maeda was unshackled from the innings restrictions that he faced with the Dodgers and from from having to deal with the uncertainly of being constantly shifted from starter to reliever. Maeda exceeded all expectations and become one of the best pitchers in baseball last season. Can he do it again?
Both of these guys have pitched well this season, and I expect that they’ll both have good outings today.
Edge - NONE
Bullpens
This is also very close. I don’t trust either bullpen.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
6.44
|
2
|
0.352
|
4
|
120
|
4
|
9.1
|
4
|
0.195
|
5
|
6.3%
|
29
|
21.5%
|
6
|
MIN
|
6.11
|
3
|
0.345
|
5
|
119
|
5
|
8.4
|
5
|
0.194
|
6
|
9.7%
|
13
|
26.7%
|
21
|
This is too damn close to give either side an edge.
Edge – None
Conclusion: Surprisingly, the Red Sox are surging and the Twins are sruggling. Since getting swept by the Orioles, the Sox have won seven straight, sweeping the Rays, the O’s and taking the first game of this series yesterday. Are they really this good. I doubt it, but we’ll see. By contrast, after taking two of three from the Brewers and the Tigers, the Twinkies then dropped two of three to the Mariners and yesterday;s game to these Red Sox. The bullpens and the offenses look pretty damn close right now. Both teams are scoring runs, but these two pitchers have both been very good, so I’ll look for them to holds these offenses in check for 5 innings.
I may have a small write-up on the 2nd game later, but I want to get a feel for what happens in the 1st game before posting it.
Pick – Under 4 (+100)
SD @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
SD – Joe Musgrove (R) v Tyler Anderson (L)
Musgrove has now started 2 games for the Padres this season and just saying that he has pitched really well would be a huge understatement. in his Padre debut on Saturday. He tossed 6 scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks, giving up just 3 hit and 0 walk, with 8 Ks. In his next start, Musgove tossed a no-n0 at the Rangers, no runs, no hits, no walks and 10 Ks. I don’t like betting on pitchers off no[hitters. After all, therse’s just one way to go and it ain;t up. Then, there’s the fact that Musgrove will be facing the team that traded him. All parties should be highly motivated here.
Musgrove started 8 games for these wretched Pirates last season, posting a 1-5 record with 4 good starts and 2 poor ons. He gave up a total of 17 runs on 33 hits and 16 walks over 39.2 innings with 55 K and allowing more than 3 runs just twice. His 1.24 ERA was solid as was his 3.86 ERA and his ERA metrics were all considerably better than his ERA. His elite 33.1% K rate was a big part of that, as was his very low 24.1% hard contact rate. The only concern was a high 9.6% walk rate. Musgrove pitched well for the clearly worst team in baseball last season and has the tools to really break out this season with a much better supporting cast.
Anderson has made 2 starts for the Pirates this season, both against the Cubs and he’s pitched OK in both. In his first start at Wrigley, Anderson gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings with 7 Ks. In his next start at home, Anderson gave up 3 runs again, but 10 hits over 5.1 innings, with 5 Ks. 15 hits in just over 10 inings is not good. I’d say that Anderson’s been lucky to have only allowed 6 runs.
Anderson started 11 games for the Giants last season, posting a 3-3 record with 5 good starts and 5 poor ones. He gave up 32 runs (29 earned) on 58 hits and 25 walks over 59.1 innings with 41 Ks. Anderson’s 1.39 WHIP and 4.37 ERA were both very mediocre and his ERA metrics were mostly even worse. The biggest culprit was his high 9.6% walk rate. ………….you just can’t walk that many batters and get away with it for very long. Everything about Anderson screams mediocrie.
Edge – SD big
Bullpens
The Padres pen didn’t very good last night giving up 5 runs over 7.1 innings. It seemed like everytime the Padres came close to getting back into it, the bullpen gave up some more runs. I’m inclined to write that off a one of those things that sometimes happen, but I an concerned about them having worked over 7 innings last night. Still…
Edge - SD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
SD
|
3.90
|
22
|
0.332
|
7
|
112
|
7
|
3.9
|
7
|
0.162
|
13
|
10.4%
|
8
|
18.4%
|
1
|
PITT
|
3.79
|
23
|
0.313
|
11
|
98
|
13
|
-1.5
|
13
|
0.148
|
19
|
11.2%
|
5
|
26.5%
|
20
|
The Padres have struggled more since Fernando Tatis J went out, aeraging just 3.7 RPG since, as compared to 4.5 before. They were just 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position last night.
Edge – SD
Conclusion: The Padres have all the edges here today. Of course I said the same thing yesterday and look how that worked out, The offenses are closer than expected, with the Padres missing Tatis, who may or may not return this season. The Padres have the better bullpen despite what they looked like last night. Most importantly, the Padres have the way better starting pitcher.
Pick – SD 1st 5 and full game ML parlays