For what it’s worth, my roller coaster season continued unabated again yesterday. I desperately needed wins by both the A’s (1st 5 and full game) only and the Reds (full game) to eke out a very small profit. Fortunately they both came through and I finished +0.14 units for the day, and am now -3.89 units for the season. Fortunately, it’s a long season and it’s only April 13.
The betting gods sure didn’t do me any favors yesterday. I had the Padres and Rays on the 1st 5 and they both pushed. The Padres scored 3 in the 6th, one inning too late and the Rays scored the game’s only run in the 7th, two innings too late. I also had the Marlins 1st 5. The oddsmakers gave the Marlins better odds of winning the 1st than winning the game. So what did the Marlins do? They lose the 1st 5 2-1, but win the game 5-3 in 10 innings. Now that’s what I call a real ball buster.
I also didn’t help myself by making a bad choice yesterday. I decided to use the Rays 1st 5 in a ronld robin of parlays with the Yanks and Padres, but I also decided not to use the Rays full game ML in parlays with the Yanks and Padres. Why? It was mostly because of how bad the 2021 numbers looked for the Rays bullpen. That was dumb! In my write up on the A’s/Diamondback game I wrote “The A’s are better than they’ve looked this season, maybe a lot better. On paper, the Dbacks would seem to have the better offense but this is basically the same A’s offense that put up a.314 wOBA and a 102 wRC+ last season.” I should have used the same logic on the Rays bullpen. The Rays pen is better than it’s looked too. It’s essentially pretty similar to the Rays pen last season and that unit was considered one of the best in baseball. That’s the problem with being a numbers guy in early April. The sample size is so small that it can skew the data. Hell, we only had a 60 game season in 2020. That probably still too small a sample size to rely on. I knew the A’s were better than they’ve shown and I should have known that the Rays pen was too. My bad!
Let’s move on to today’s MLB card. We have a full slate and there are a few that I really like. Here’s the early card:
11-Apr
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Team #1
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Team #2
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Odds
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Units
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2 Team 1st 5 ML Parlays
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SD 1st 5
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LAD 1st 5
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-108
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
2 Team Full Game ML Parlay
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SD ML
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LAD ML
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-117
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
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Sides
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NYY ML
|
|
(+103)
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1
|
|
MIL 1st 5 ML
|
|
(-110)
|
1
|
|
LAA ML
|
|
(-126 )
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1
|
|
|
|
|
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Totals
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NYY @ TOR
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Under 5
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(-100)
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1
|
Here are the write-ups with the exception of the COL/LAD. I haven’t done it yet. I’ll post it later time permitting, but it’s pretty obvious. The Dodgers are huge favorites and rightly so. I’m parlaying them 1st 5 and full game to just win..:
SD @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
Blake Snell (L)
Snell has started 2 games for the Padres and has performed well in both. In his first start, Snell tossed 4.2 scoreless innings against Arizona, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 8, but did not factor in the decision, a 4-2 win. In his second start against the Giants, Snell gave up 2 runs on 2 hits (1 HR) and 4 walks over 5 innings, with 8 Ks, but again did not factor in the decision, a 3-2 10-inning loss.
Snell was handled with kid gloves by the Rays last season. He started 11 games during the regular season and 6 more in the postseason. Snell finished 6-4 with 9 good starts and just 2 poor ones in his last 12 outings. He wasn’t bad early on either, but was limited to a max of 3 innings in each of his first three starts despite not allowing any runs in two of them. In his last 12 starts, Snell gave up a total of 19 runs (18 earned) on 45 hits and 22 walks over 56.2 innings with 66 Ks. His 1.20 WHIP and 3.24 ERA were both good, as were his ERA metrics, despite beinga little higher than his ERA. That’s probably because of his 89.1% strand rate which is about 10% higher than his career rate. That should normalize. Another factor is the 10 HRs that he gave up which was close to 1 HR/9 higher than his career 0.93. Snell’s 47.4% K rate was still elite and he generated a solid 49.2% GB rate as well, but his 10.5% walk rate was his highest since 2007. He also struggled with the long ball giving up not only the 10 regular season HRs, but 5 more in his six postseason starts. In those 6 starts, Snell gave up 10 runs on 20 hits and 14 walks over 29.2 innings. That translates to a 1.15 WHIP and a 3.03 ERA.
PITT - Chad Kuhl (R)
Kuhl has also started 2 games for the Pirates, but hasn’t fared as well as Snell. He didn't factor into the decision in the Pirates opening day win over the Cubs in CHI. He only lasted 3 innings, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 1 hit and 3 walks with 2 Ks. His next start at the Reds was more problematic as he gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 2 hits and 5 walks over 4 innings with 5 Ks. The one thing that really stood out from Kuhl’s two outings are the 8 walks in just 7 innings. If Huhl keeps walking batters at that pace, he’s gonna get killed!
Kuhl started 9 games for the Pirates last season, posting a 2-3 record with 5 good starts and 3 poor ones. He gave up 26 runs (22 earned) on 35 hits and 28 walks over 46.1 innings, with 44 Ks. Kuhl posted a high 1.42 WHIP and a mediocre 4.27 ERA and his ERA metrics were all higher than his ERA. That tells me that it could have been much worse and that’s confirmed by his low .235 BABIP His 44 Ks in just over 46 innings is OK, but 28 walks is way too many. The Pirates have worked with Kuhl to change his arsenal up. He threw almost 35% sliders last season and over 17% curveballs. That’s probably a good idea because his FB tends to get pummeled. Of course if he keeps walking batters at this rate, it won’t matter. Kuhl will give up run…lots of them. That Kuhl is even in this rotation, much less the opening day starter, speaks volumes about how bad this rotation might be.
Edge – SD big
Bullpens
The Padres pen worked 2 innings last night, giving up 1 run on 2 hits with 2 Ks
The Pirates pen worked 4 innings and took the loss giving up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks. Luis Oviedo was the main culprit, giving 5 of the 8 hits, both walks and all 5 runs.
Edge – SD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
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Rank
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wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
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ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
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BB%
|
Rank
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K%
|
Rank
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SD
|
3.90
|
22
|
0.332
|
7
|
112
|
7
|
3.9
|
7
|
0.162
|
13
|
10.4%
|
8
|
18.4%
|
1
|
PITT
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3.79
|
23
|
0.313
|
11
|
98
|
13
|
-1.5
|
13
|
0.148
|
19
|
11.2%
|
5
|
26.5%
|
20
|
The Padres put up 6 runs on 10 hits and 4 walks. OF Wil Myers was the big gun, driving in 5 of the Padres 6 runs on 2 singles and a big 2-run HR in the 6th when the Padres broke the game open. Stii, the Padres continue to struggle at the late with Fernando Tatis Jr, who might not return thi season. They were just 3 for 11 with runners in scoring position.
The Pirate managed 6 hits and a walk, but just 2 runs last night and were just 1 for 4 with runners in scoring position.
Edge – SD
Conclusion: The Padres have all the edges here again today. The offenses are closer than expected, but only because the Padres are missing Tatis, who may or may nort return this season. The Padres have the better bullpen and most importantly the way better starting pitcher.
Pick – SD 1st 5 and full game ML parlays
NYY @ TOR
Starting Pitchers
NYY – Jameson Taillon (R)
Taillon pitched surprisingly well in his first outing as a Yankee, considering that he worked just 37.1 innings in 2019 and then missed all of 2020 recovering from his 2nd TJ surgery on his right elbow. Taillon gave up 2 runs on 3 hits and 0 walks over 4.2 innings, with an impressive 8 Ks. Equally impressive was the 0 walks considering how pitchers recovering from TJ surgery often struggle with their control and command.
In 2018, which was his last healthy season, Taillon posted a 14-10 record for the Pirates with 20 quality starts in his 31 outings. That compared to just 3 starts in which he gave up more than 3 earned runs, and all three were back in April and May. After Taillon unveiled a slider, he was absolutely dominant from May 27 through the end of the 2018 season. From that May 27 start, he posted a 1.15 WHP and a 2.63 ERA over his final 133.1 innings with a 135/29 K/BB ratio and only 13 HRs allowed.
TOR – Hyu Jin Ryu (L)
Ryu (0-1) has started 2 games for the Blue Jays this season and pitched well in both of them. In the Jays sason opener, against these very same Yankees and Gerrit Cole, Ryu allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5 over 5.1 innings and didn't factor into the decision. In his second start at TWX, Ryu was a hard luck loser, despite giving up just 2 runs on 7 hits (1 HR) over 7 innings with 7 Ks. He throws a great 90-mph FB, a good change along with a decent cutter, curve, and sinker, and he pounds the strike zone with all of them. If Ryu can stay healthy for a full season, he’s legitimately a top-20 starter, but that’s been the problem. He’s probably only good for about 125 innings with his injury history. He did log 185 innings in 2018 but hasn’t thrown that many since 2013. A repeat seems highly unlikely.
Ryu started 12 games for the Blue Jays last season, posting a 5-2 record with 9 good starts and just 2 poor ones. He gave up 22 runs (20 earned) on 60 hits and 17 walks over 67 innings with 72 Ks. That left him with a solid 1.15 WHIP and 2.69 ERA. His ERA metrics were totally consistent with that ERA. Ryu struck out over a batter per inning and generated a 51.1% GB rate. He also did not giving up a lot of hard contact (24.3%), but his 5.2% walk rate, while not awful, ws still almost 10% higher than his 2019 rate. Ryu had a sason for the ages back in 2019 with Dodgers. He started 29 games during the regular season and another in the playoffs, posting a 15-5 record with 24 good starts and just 5 poor ones. He gave up more than 2 earned runs just 7 times all season. Ryu’s 1.01 WHIP and 2.32 ERA were both outstanding. His ERA metrics, while higher that his stellar ERA, werew still very good. Ryu’s 22.5% K rate was decent but hardly stellar, but his 3.3% walk rate was, and so was his 6.79 K/BB ratio.
I’ve got to give Ryu the edge here, but I think that it may be closer than we think.
Edge – TOR
Bullpens
Last night the Yankee pen tossed 3 scoreless innings [ivking up a save, preserving Gerrit Cole’s 2nd win abd giving up 2 hits and 1 walk with 4 Ks
The Jays pen worked 4 innings, giving up 1 run on 1 hit and 2 walks with % Ks.
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
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Rank
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wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
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ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
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BB%
|
Rank
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K%
|
Rank
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NYY
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4.22
|
19
|
0.313
|
11
|
99
|
12
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-0.5
|
11
|
0.130
|
26
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10.9%
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6
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23.4%
|
10
|
TOR
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4.56
|
12
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0.295
|
22
|
85
|
22
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-6.9
|
23
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0.138
|
22
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8.4%
|
22
|
25.9%
|
18
|
Neither team is hitting all that well and runs were at a premium last night. The Yanks only had 4 hits but scored 3 runs courtesy of backup C Kyle Higashioka who drove in all 3 runs with a 2-run blast in the 5th and a solo shot in the 8th.
The Jays continue to struggle at the plate. They had 5 hits, but only scored 1 run.
Edge – NYY the better of two struggling offenses
Conclusion:
CHI C @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
CHI C - Kyle Hendricks (R)
Hendricks has started 2 games for the Cubs this season, both at Wrigley, but with vastly different results. In his first start against the Pirates, Hendricks was roughed up for 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks, lasting just 3 innings, with 10 Ks. In his second start against these Brewers, Hendricks tossed 6 scoreless innings giving up just 4 hits and a walk over 6 innings with 8 Ks.
Hendricks started 12 games for the Cubs last season with 10 good outings and just 2 poor one. His 1.00 WHIP and 2.88 ERA were both very good and his ERA metrics, while all higher than his fine ERA, were still solid. Hendricks has never produced truly great metrics, mostly because of his pedestrian 20.8% career K rate. Last season’s 20.3% rate was right in line with his career rate. What Hendricks excelled at was limiting walks (a 2.5% rate last season and a 5.3% rate for his career), HRs (a 1.11 HR/9 this season and a 0.99 career rate), and hard contact (26.4% this season and 28.6% career). That makes Hendricks the ultimate finesse pitcher woth a proven track record of durability and consistency. Until the Covid-shortened 2020 season, Hendricks had tossed at least 175 innings four times in the last five seasons. However, it should also be noted that Hendricks did most of his struggling on the road last season with a 1.27 WHIP, a 4.06 ERA and a .326 wOBA. That’s compared to a 0.76 WHIP, a 1.85 ERA and a .214 wOBA at Wrigley
MIL – Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff has started two games for the Brewers this season. He struggled some in his first start against the Twins, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks over 4 innings, with 5 Ks, However, in his next start against these Cubs at Wrigley, Woodruff was brilliant tossing 7 shutout innings and giving up just 1 hit on 0 walks, with 8 Ks.
Woodruff was the Brewers best starting pitcher again last season. He started 13 games, posting just a 3-5 record, but with 9 good starts, 1 poor one and 3 mediocre ones. He gave up 26 runs (25 earned) on 55 hit (9 HRs) and 18 walks over 73.2 innings with an impressive 91 Ks. Woodruff’s 0.99 WHIP and 3.05 ERA were both very good and his ERA metrics were totally consistent with that fine ERA. His 31.1% K rate was elite and his hard contact rate was under 30%. Woodruff was also the Brewers best starting pitcher is 2019, starting 22 games posting an impressive 11-3 record with 13 good outings and just 6 poor ones. His 1.14 WHIP and 3.62 ERA were both good, and his ERA metricswere even a little better than his ERA. Woodruff’s 29% K rate was elite and he combined it with a solid 44.6% GB rate. He also limited opposing batters to a 36.5% hard contact rate, a 6.1% walk rate, and a 0.89 HR/9 ratio.
Edge – MIL
Bullpens
The Cubs bullpen got roughed up for 5 runs in 3.2 innings last night, while the Brewers pen gave up 2 runs over the final 3 innings..
Edge – CHI
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CHC
|
2.90
|
30
|
0.265
|
29
|
66
|
30
|
-12.9
|
30
|
0.160
|
14
|
9.9%
|
9
|
28.5%
|
28
|
MIL
|
4.40
|
15
|
0.280
|
26
|
74
|
26
|
-10.8
|
27
|
0.140
|
21
|
9.0%
|
17
|
27.8%
|
25
|
Edge – MIL by default
Conclusion: Both of these offenses have struggled out of the gate, but of the two, the Cubs have struggled more. Neither bullpen has been great, but they haven’t been awful either. The big edge in this game is at starting pitchers. Both have proven track records, but Hendricks has struggled a lot more on the road.
Pick – MIL 1st 5 (-110 for 1 unit)
LAA @ KC
Starting Pitchers
LAA - Dylan Bundy (R)
Bundy has started 2 games for the Angels this season and pitched well in both outings. In his opening day start against the white Sox and Luca Giolito, Bundy gave up 3 runs on 6 hits (1 HR) and a walk over 6 innings, with 6 Ks and 10 GBs in the Angels 6-3 win. In his next outing against the Astros, Bundy gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 10 Ks in the Angels 4-2 loss.
Last season, Dylan Bundy was mostly tremendous for the Angels, posting a 5-3 record with 8 good starts in his 11 outings and just 3 poor ones. He finished with a very good 1.01 WHIP, a stellar 3.29 ERA, good ERA metrics and a very good .262 wOBA against. He struck out over a batter per inning and didn’t give up a lot of hard contact (30.1%).
KC – Danny Duffy (L)
In his first start of the season, Duffy was superb, holding the Indians scoreless over 6 innings and giving up just 2 hits and 3 walks with 5 Ks.
Duffy (4-4) started 11 games for the Royals with 6 good outings, 4 poor ones and 1 short one. He gave up 33 runs (31 earned)on 53 hits (10 HRs) and 22 walks over 56.1 innings with 57 Ks. That earned him a mediocre 1.33 WHIP abd high 4.95 ERA. His ERA metrics were all totally consistent with that ERA. Dua solid 23.6% K rate, but also posted a high 9.1% walk rate.
Edge – LAA
Bullpens
Last night the Angels pen tossed 3.1 scorelss innings in relief of Alex Cobb giving up 3 hits and 2 walks with 4 Ks. Ny contrast the Royals pen allowed 6 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks over the final 4 innings of the Angels .10-3 win. Edge – KC close, maybe
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
5.89
|
4
|
0.325
|
9
|
107
|
8
|
3.1
|
8
|
0.173
|
10
|
9.5%
|
15
|
21.6%
|
7
|
KCR
|
5.00
|
8
|
0.318
|
10
|
100
|
11
|
-1.1
|
12
|
0.152
|
17
|
9.9%
|
9
|
27.2%
|
23
|
The Angles put up 19 runs last night on 14 hits and 3 walks last night. The Roya;s were held to 3 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks.
Conclusion: The Angels have the more potent offense here. The bullpens are close, the Angles also have a lear edge at starting pitcher. Duffy is capable of putting up a solid effort from time to time, but Bundy is elite.
Pick – LAA ML -126 for 1 unit