For what it’s worth, last night, I was on the Dodgers ML for 3 units. I cashed my bet, leaving me +2.03 units for the day, +1.45 units for the postseason, and +31.44 units for the season.
Last night, the Dodgers once again flexed their formidable muscle. This Dodger lineup is formidable and very dangerous. Opposing pitchers just don’t have much margin for error against that lineup. Last night they once again faced of against old nemesis ICharlie Morton. It was the same Charlie Morton who had dominated their lineup twice in the 2017 World Series giving up just giving up just 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 10 innings with 11 Ks. It was also the same Charlei Morton who came into this game having given up just 2 runs over 15 innings in his three 2020 postseason starts. In this game, the Dodgers stayed patient, hit whatever mistakes Morton did make on route to an impressive 6-2 win.
Morton’s line on the night was not impressive. He gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and a walk over 4.1 innings. He racked up 6 Ks with his 95 mph+ high heat and nicked the corners with his curve and slider. Morton really didn’t pitch all that badby, but he did make a few mistakes and this Dodgers lineup punished him when he did.
In the very first inning Justin Turner pounced on a Morton FB in the upper half of the zone and that quickly in was 1-0 Dodgers. The pitch wasn’t poorly located, but I suspect that Morton wanted the ball a little higher, above the zone, but not in it. Morton’s night really started falling apart with two outs in the third. After back to back Ks, he nicked Corey Seager. No big deal, but it was a mistake and on this night no Morton mistake went unpunished. A Turner double put runners on and a Max Muncy single drove in both runners, making it 3-0 Dodgers. In the 4th, two singles, sandwiched around a K, put Dodgers on 1st and 3rd with one out. Austin Barnes then laid down a well executed but rare safety squeeze to bring in 1 run. That was followed by a Mookie Betts GB single up the middle to make it 5-0.
As for the Rays hitters, they struggled to catch up to Walker Buehler’s almost 97 mph heater. Buehler went 6 great innings, giving up 3 hits and just 1 walk, while notching 10 Ks. The Dodger bullpen closed it out with 3 scoreless innings, including a rare 9th inning appearance by the long lost Kenley Jansen, who gave up the Rays final run on a solo shot by Randy Arozarena.
With Game 3now in the books, let’s move on to Game 4.
LAD v TB
Starting Pitchers
8:08
|
2020 Regular Season
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
LAD
|
Urias - L (3-0)
|
|
(7/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.15
|
3.27
|
3.72
|
5.06
|
4.88
|
0.265
|
7.36
|
2.95
|
0.82
|
0.256
|
76.8%
|
32.9%
|
38.5%
|
TB
|
Yarbrough - L (1-4)
|
|
(4/9)
|
(3/9)
|
1.19
|
3.56
|
3.80
|
4.33
|
4.44
|
0.296
|
7.11
|
1.94
|
0.81
|
0.295
|
77.3%
|
41.9%
|
25.1%
|
|
2020 Postseason
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB %
|
HC%
|
LAD
|
Urias - L (4-0)
|
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
0.63
|
0.56
|
2.57
|
3.80
|
3.34
|
N/A
|
9.00
|
1.69
|
0.56
|
0.154
|
93.0%
|
37.5%
|
N/A
|
TB
|
Yarbrough - L (1-0)
|
|
(1/1)
|
(0/1)
|
1.31
|
3.38
|
6.85
|
6.26
|
5.32
|
N/A
|
5.06
|
2.53
|
2.53
|
0.242
|
100.0%
|
36.1%
|
N/A
|
Edge – LAD
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.83
|
1
|
0.350
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
58.2
|
2
|
0.227
|
1
|
41.9%
|
1
|
9.8%
|
12
|
20.3%
|
2
|
TB
|
4.74
|
13
|
0.325
|
13
|
109
|
9
|
10.2
|
13
|
0.187
|
7
|
34.7%
|
6
|
10.7%
|
4
|
26.9%
|
29
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: These two teams had the two best records in baseball in this crazy season. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card round, the Rays survived a really tough 5 game ALDS series and a surprisingly tough 7 game series against the Astros. After sweeping the Brewers in the NL Wild Card round and the Padres in the NLDS, The Dodgers fought back from 2-0 and 3-1 deficits against the Braves, winning three straight games to earn the NL berth in this World Series. The Dodgers took Game 1 on Tuesday behind a strong outing by Clayton Kershaw, while the Dodgers pounced on a shaky Tyler Glasnow for six 4th and 5th inning runs to seal the Dodger 8-3 win. The Rays bounced back on in Game 2 behind a strong outing by Blake Snell in a 6-4 win than evened the series. Walker Buehler dominated the Rays last night in Game 3, and the Dodgers pounced on Charlie Moron’s mistakes for a 6-2 win and a 2-1 series lead.
Offensively, on paper, this looked like a mismatch going into this series and still does. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored 1.09 more runs per game than the Rays, with a wOBA that was 25 points higher, a wRC+ that was 13 points better, a wRAA that was 48 points better, an ISO that was 40 points better, and a 7.2% higher hard contact rate. In this postseason, the Dodgers have averaged 1.80 more runs per game (5.80) than the Rays (4.00), with a 45 point higher BA (.253 v .208).
With the exception of striking out way too much (rank #29), the Rays were a little above average in pretty much every other offensive category this season. That’s not bad, but, with the exception of being a little light on walks (rank #12) the Dodgers ranked either 1st or 2nd in every other significant offensive category. Since the Rays lack the traditional MVP-caliber sluggers who feast on FBs, the Rays had one of baseball’s worst records in 2020 against FBs, ranking just 26th. That would certainly explain their 29th ranked K rate during the regular season, and their 180 Ks in 542 postseason ABs. The problem for the Rays in this series is that the Dodgers have as many as eight pitchers whose heaters averaged 95 mph or better. As for the Dodgers, it should be noted that they aren’’t quite as good against lefties. They rank 8th in wOBA (.335), wRC+ (113), and wRAA (8.2). That’s still very good, but not top 1 or 2. In the first three games of this series, the Dodgers have scored 18 runs on 25 hits and 14 walks. The Rays have scored only 11 runs on 20 hits and 6 walks This Dodgers offense is elite and should be much better than the Rays mediocre offense.
As for the bullpen matchup, both of these bullpens were very good during the regular season. The Dodger pen won 1 more game than the Rays, but the Rays had a 23.7% higher save rate. However, the Dodgers had a 1.7% higher overall strand rate and allowed 0.06 fewer runs per inning pitched. They also had a 0.15 better WHIP, a 0.63 better ERA, better ERA metrics, a 0.8% better K rate and a 0.7% lower walk rate. That makes it sound like the Dodgers have the edge, but not so fast.
In the postseason, both of these bullpens have been less effective that they were during the regular season. I suppose that’s not really all that surprising in this era where getting five good innings from a starting pitcher is considered a good start. As a rule, bullpens tend to get used more in the playoffs, and this season with no travel and as a result fewer days off, even the very best bullpens will feel the strain. The Rays pen is now 2-2 with a perfect 5 saves in 5 opportunities. They have given up 32 runs (29 earned) on 77 hits and 33 walks over 76.1 innings with 69 Ks. That translates to a high 1.44 WHIP, a solid 3.42 ERA and 0.42 runs allowed per inning pitched. By contrast, the Dodger pen has posted a 3-1 record, also with a perfect 5 saves in 5 save opportunities, giving up 30 runs (27 earned) on 58 hits and 17 walks over 60.2 innings, with 58 Ks. That translates to a solid 1.24 WHIP and mediocre 4.01 ERA, with 0.49 runs allowed per inning pitched.
As mentioned back in my October 8 post for the final game of the Dodger/Padre NLDS, my concern with the Dodger pen was closer Kenley Jansen and his drop of about 1 mph in velocity. In that final game, Jansen gave up two 9th inning runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in just two thirds of an inning, and needed 30 pitches to get two outs! Joe Kelly had to come in and get the final out to preserve the Dodgers win. Jansen had been the Dodgers' primary closer since 2012 but has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons. In 2019, he saved 33 games but posted a career-worst 3.71 ERA. This season, Jansen started strong but gave up 7 earned runs in back-to-back outings in September. He was averaging 93-94 mph earlier this season, but rarely got above 90 mph in his postseason outings. In fairness, it should be noted that after a 10 day layoff, Jansen did pitch a perfect 9th, getting the save in the Dodgers 3-1 win in Game 6 on the NLCS, but he hadn’t made an appearance since until last noght, when he gave up a solo HR in a meaningless 9th inning mop up role.
My inclination is to simply say that both of these pens are very good and call them even.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and they will be the biggest unknowns tonight.
I wish that I had more faith in Julio Urias, but I just don’t. The Dodgers apparently are. They were comfortable enough with Urias in the starting rotation to trade Ross Stripling to the Blue Jays. Urias started 10 games for the Dodgers during the regular season, posting a 3-0 record with 1o good starts and just 2 poor ones. There’s nothing wrong with that ratio. He gave up more than 2 runs (4) just twice and in six of his starts it was just 1 run. That’s pretty good as well. Urias’ 1.15 WHIP and 3.27 ERA were both very good, but his ERA metrics were all considerably higher. That’s probably because of his pedestrian 20.1% K rate and 8% walk rate, as well as his slightly higher than average 38.5%% hard contact rate.
Urias was solid in all four of his postseason appearances, three out of the Dodger pen and one start against the Braves in the NLCS. He has given up just 2 runs (1 earned) on 7 hits and 3 walks over 16 innings with 16 Ks. That comes out to a sparkling 0.63 WHIP and 0.56 ERA. Yes, it’s a small sample size but it is impressive.
Ryan Yarbrough started 9 games for the Rays this season. He was just 1-4 with 4 good starts and 3 poor ones. His 1.19 WHIP and 3.56 ERA were both good, but his ERA metrics were all higher than his ERA. That’s probably because of his poor 18.8% K rate. Yarbrough just didn’t miss enough bats, but his 5.1% walk rate was solid and he gave up very little (25.1%) hard contact. The truth is that Yarbrough’s regular season stats don’t look a whole lot different than Urias’. They were pretty comparable.
Yarbrough has made 3 postseason appearances, including 1 start against the Astros in the ALCS, and was solid in all three. He has given up a total of 4 runs on 11 hits and 3 walks over 10.2 innings with 6 Ks. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but when I compare how these two guys have performed this postseason, a few things really stand out. First is that Urias’s ERA metrics are a hell of a lot ot better than Yarbrough’s. Second is that Uias’ K rate is almost 4Ks per 9 better than Yarbrough’s and he walks one less batter per 9.
I still don’t really trust Urias, but I trust Yarbrough even less. Urias’ FB is certainly not in Walker Buehler’s class, but he averaged 94.3 mph this season and he throws it over 56% of the time. We know that the Rays struggle with FBs, so they could struggle again tonight. Of course after dealing with Buehler’s heater last night, Urias’ FB might actually seem hittable. As mentioned yesterday, the Rays are also very dependent on the long ball for offense. 46 of the 68 runs that they’ve scored this postseason (67.6%) have come from HRs. Urias only gave up 5 in his 55 regular season innings, and just 1 in his 16 postseason innings, so the Rays could struggle to score runs again tonight.
As for Yarbrough, my biggest concern with him is that he doesn’t miss many bats. He’s your classic pitch to contact type pitcher, who relies on contact management. That’s a dangerous way to survie, especially against a Dodger lineup that ranked # 1 in hard contact. Almost 42% of the balls they hit are hard hit balls
I’ve been on the Dodger bandwagon most of this season. I thought that they were the most talented team in baseball and were the team most likely to win it al. I’ll admit that I had some second thoughts. I was concerned about the lack of starting pitching depth behind Kershaw and Buehler, and about closer Jansen’s struggles. I though that those flaws might cost them and keep them from going as far as they might have, but here they are, back in the World Series and favored to win it all.
These two offenses are not close. The Rays are a little above average, but the Dodgers are elite. As for the bullpens, they were both very good during the regular season, but both have shown cracks in this postseason. I’m still somewhat concerned about the whole Jansen thing and the effect it might be having on the Dodger pen. Still, despite Jansen’s problems, the Dodgers pen really hasn’t performed any worse in this postseason than the Rays pen has, so I’m calling the bullpens even. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Dodgers might have a small edge because this is their second straight series at Globe Life, but that edge gets smaller and smaller as with each passing game, the Rays get more familiar with a park that they had never played in before this series. On the other hand the Rays have a clear edge in the managerial department. Kevin Cash is the best in-game manager in baseball. I’ll charitably say that Dave Roberts is not.
I loved the Dodgers in Game 1. They had the much better offense and they also had the better starting pitcher. In Game 2, while they still had the clearly better offense, I thought that the Rays had the better starting pitcher and they needed the game. Last night, the Dodgers obviously still had the much better offense, but I thought that they also had the better starting pitcher and at least for that game, I was right. Tonight, the Dodgers still have a clear offensive edge and the bullpens are still pretty even. As for the two starting pitchers, while I don’t trust either one completely, Urias has had the better postseason, and even more importantly, I think that he matches us better against the Rays hitters, than Yarbrough does against the Dodgers more formidable offense.
This is probably my lowest confidence bet yet in this series. I still like the Dodgers here, but the Rays are desperate. This is a must win game for thee Rays. If they don't win this game, it's over. Kershaw could very well end this series tomorrow. With Urias on the hill, the Dodgers are probably more vulnerable tonight e than they would be with Kershaw or Buehler. This is the Rays best shot to get back into this series. It may be their only shot.
All that said, I think the Dodgers smell blood in the water and tI hink they'll be very motivated to finish this off before they ever get a chance to blow it. I bet this one yesterday evening. Since then, this line’s gone up about 10 cents, so I think that I got the best number too.
Pick – LAD ML (-153 for 2 units)