I'm wondering if anyone else has ever made this play. I am one of those fans who will Never bet against my few select teams, where the loyalty goes back to my early childhood and never waned. That's the Dodgers in Baseball and Notre Dame in football. It would cause a crack in the Universe if I ever violated that Rule ...
However, I am making an exception for tonight, due to a rare baseball bet that I have made on a few occasions and have never lost, though I have not rolled up my sleeves to calculate the EV, which probably is not great. Tonight I have the Braves ML +138, and I have the Dodgers RL (-1.5) +140. I only lose my bet if the Dodgers win by 1. I get some minor consolation if the Dodgers lose , but I make more money if they win as they normally do - by bunches of runs.
Of the Dodgers' 50 wins (Reg and Post-Season) - only 8 by 1 run (less than 20%), where the Braves are 13-6 in 1-run games, including their last 5. If I lose this bet, at least my Dodgers win, but I make the most if they win by margin ..... I made the bet last night, and I checked this morning and both sides of the bet have gone down. The Braves ML is now +131, and the Dodgers RL is now + 135. So at least I got my money in at the better numbers ...