For what it’s worth, last Friday I had one of those rare days when almost everything goes right. It was exhilarating and wonderful, but fleeting. It never lasts. What goes up must come down. Yesterday, I had one of those equally rare days when almost everything goes wrong. Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito both had to get beat up. Jack Odorizzi had to pitch well right off the IL, Kyle Gibson had to pitch wel period, and the Astros had to not score at all. It was unlikely that all that would happen on the same night and it wad damned depressing for sure, but it won’t last either. That’s just the way it goes sometimes. I trust my process and if the process is sound, I should bounce back. I always have and I probably will again. Yesterday, I ended up dropping a whopping 15.33 units. That’s UGLY! However, it still left me +21.16 units for the season,and that’s not too shabby.
Let’s get yesterday out of our minds as fast as we can and focus on today. Let’s move on. I’m going hog wild, right back to the parlays today. I may have a side play or two, but it’ll be mostly these parlays. Here’s the parlay card:
2-Team ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
135
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
NYY full game ML
|
132
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
118
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
CLEV full game ML
|
112
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
HTN1st 5 ML
|
122
|
1
|
|
MINN 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
156
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
111
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
CLEV full game ML
|
106
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
HTN1st 5 ML
|
115
|
1
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
148
|
1
|
|
NYY full game ML
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
109
|
1
|
|
NYY full game ML
|
CLEV full game ML
|
104
|
1
|
|
NYY full game ML
|
HTN1st 5 ML
|
113
|
1
|
|
NYY full game ML
|
LAD ML
|
146
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
HTN1st 5 ML
|
-100
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
130
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
HTN1st 5 ML
|
-106
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
LAD ML
|
124
|
1
|
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
135
|
1
|
Here is the write up for the afternoon game. I’ll be back later with the rest.
MINN @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
MINN
|
Maeda - R (5-1(
|
|
(9/9)
|
(0/9)
|
0.74
|
2.43
|
2.87
|
2.86
|
3.16
|
0.206
|
10.19
|
1.62
|
0.97
|
0.197
|
79.8%
|
49.2%
|
21.1%
|
CHI WS
|
Lopez - R (1-2)
|
|
(2/5)
|
(2/5)
|
1.77
|
5.52
|
6.26
|
6.25
|
5.82
|
0.392
|
7.36
|
5.52
|
1.84
|
0.318
|
70.2%
|
40.0%
|
51.1%
|
Edge – MINN
Bullpens
Edge – MINN slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MINN
|
4.50
|
20
|
0.322
|
16
|
101
|
15
|
1.0
|
16
|
0.184
|
11
|
36.2%
|
14
|
9.2%
|
15
|
23.7%
|
17
|
CHI WS
|
5.46
|
4
|
0.346
|
5
|
121
|
2
|
36.4
|
5
|
0.200
|
4
|
39.3%
|
5
|
9.7%
|
12
|
24.3%
|
21
|
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: The White Sox (32-17) and Twins (31-20) and regardless of which team ends up winning the AL Central, both teams will most likely make the playoffs. Offensively, while the Twins were the team with the powerhouse offense last season, this season it’s been the White Sox who are mashing the ball. They rank in the top 5 in almost every meaningful offensive category with the exception of walks and Ks. By contrast, the Twins have struggled and have been no better than a league average offense. As for the two bullpens, that’s much closer, but the Twins appear to have more of the edges, albeit by very small margins. It’s not really relevant because this is a 1st 5 wager. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and there I give the Twins a huge edge.
Kenta Maeda is having himself a great season. He has now started 9 games for the Twins and all 9 have been good. He has yet to give up more than 3 runs in any start, and in 6 of his 9 starts, it was 2 or less. Maeda has given up a total of 15 runs on 31 hits and 10 walks over 55.1 innings with 63 Ks. That gives Maeda an outstanding 0.74 WHIP and 2.43 ERA. His ERA metrics are all slightly higher than his stellar ERA, but still excellent and his wOBA against is a superb .206. Maeda is striking out over a better per inning and combining it with a near 50% GB rate. He’s not giving up walks or much hard contact and very few HRs. With the Twins, Maeda has been unshackled from the innings restrictions that he faced in LA. He also hasn’t had to deal with the uncertainly of being constantly shifted from starter to reliever, he has a decent defense behind him. Maeda is on a roll. I made the mistake of betting against him in his matchup with Shane Bieber last week and he made me look like a fool. I’m sure as hell not doing it here.
Reynaldo Lopez’ went just 0.2 innings in his first start back on July 26. He lasted just 0.2 of an inning giving up 4 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks. He was removed from the game because of tightness in his right shoulder and later placed on the IL. Since his return, Lopez has srarted 4 games and given up 7 runs (5 earned) on 14 hits and 7 walks over 14 innings with 10 Ks. The 7 walks in just 14 innings is particularly alarming and certainly explains his sky high 1.77 WHIP. His ERA is over 5.00 as are all of his ERA metrics, and his wOBA against is approaching .400. Lopexz has walked just 3 less than he’s struck out and over 50% of the contact that he’s given up has been hard contact. I’m not backing that. Lopez’s biggest problem is that he really shouldn’t be in the starting rotation. He only has two pitches and it’s tough to get by as a starter with just two pitches. That gives Lopez very little margin for error. Hitters start guessing and have a 50% shot of guessing right. He’s probably better suited to a bullpen role.
The starting pitching matchup should be a mismatch.
Pick – MINN 1st 5 ML