For what it’s worth, this season’s been a real struggle. Yesterday I went 2-1, but only picked up 0.18 units. That left me 8.98 units for the season. My problem is that when I’m struggling, I tend to second guess myself. When I find that happening, I take a deep breath and remind myself that I’m a recreational bettor, so this ain’t life or death to me. I also tell myself that if I’ve done my due diligence, I need to trust the process. It’ll be right more often than not. There’s still plenty of time to turn it around, but it is a much shorter season, so I need to get my ass in gear. Now, on to today’s plays. I like three teams for the st 5 innings, the Reds, the Phils and the Nats. However, they are all prohibitive favorites so I bet these three 2-team ML parlays this morning. I may have a late play, but no guarantee on that. This could be my entire card.
1 – CIN 1st 5 ML + PHIL 1st 5 ML +1.42 for 2 units
2 – CIN 1st 5 ML + WASH 1st 5 ML +151 for 2 units
- PHIL 1sst 5 ML + WASH 1st 5 ML +161 for 2 units
KC @ CIN
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIER
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB %
|
HC %
|
KC
|
Bubin - L
|
|
1
|
0
|
1.00
|
3.60
|
4.03
|
4.02
|
3.74
|
8.10
|
2.70
|
3.00
|
0.90
|
0.275
|
0.240
|
66.0%
|
64.0%
|
38.5%
|
CIN
|
Castillo - R
|
|
2
|
1
|
1.41
|
4.76
|
1.79
|
2.22
|
2.68
|
13.76
|
3.18
|
4.33
|
0.53
|
0.31
|
0.415
|
66.4%
|
61.9%
|
31.0%
|
Rookie Kris Bubic has started 2 games for the Royals and he’s pitched decently in both of them. In his first start, he gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and a walkover 4 innings with 3 Ks against the White Sox. Bubic followed that up by giving up just 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks over 6 innings with 6 Ks against the Cubs. Bubic was one of four college pitchers the Royals selected in the first round of the 2018 amateur draft. The Royals took him with the 40th overall pick, He was 13-8 with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.59 ERA after two minor league seasons; averaging 11.4 K/9 and less than 3 BB/9. This will be Bubic’s first road start.
Luis Castillo pitched really well in 2 of his first 3 starts this season. He has given up 9 runs on 18 hits and 6 walks over 17 innings with 26 Ks. Castillo kiiked like he was wearing down at the tail end of last season. He logged a career high 190.2 innings, 21 more than his previous high. Castillo was still very good, starting 32 games and posting a 15-8 record with 25 good starts to just 7 poor ones. His 1.14 WHIP and 3.40 ERA were both good, and his ERA metrics, a 3.70 FIP, a 3.48 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA, while a little higher than his ERA were also good. Castillo’s 28.9% K rate was elite, and he only gave up 22 HRs for a career best 1.04 HR/9 rate. He gave up 28 in 21 less innings in 2018. Castillo’s biggest problem was a career high 10.1% walk rate. In his 7 poor starts, he walked a total of 16 batters. That said, with an elite 52.2% career GB rate, a high K rate, and better run support, Castillo should have success again this season. He could be a legitimate Cy Young candidate if he could just improve his control. So far, the Ks and GB rate are still elite, and Castillo’s only given 1 HR, but he walked 4 in his last start at CLEV, after walking just 1 in each of his first 2 starts.
Edge – CIN
Bullpens
The Royals pen has been a pleasant surprise this season. They’ve picked up 5 wins and are 5 for 5 in save opportunities with a 76.3% strand rate. They are giving up a little less than a half a run per inning with a decent WHIP and a solid ERA.
By contrast the Reds pen has been a glaring weakness with 4 losses and more blown saves than saves. They’r giving up almost a full run per inningwith a lousy WHIP and ERA.
Edge – KC
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
KC
|
4.35
|
15
|
0.289
|
28
|
83
|
25
|
-14.5
|
27
|
0.128
|
28
|
40.7%
|
18
|
8.1%
|
21
|
21.6%
|
6
|
-1.7
|
26
|
CIN
|
4.19
|
20
|
0.308
|
21
|
94
|
23
|
-5.5
|
24
|
0.179
|
10
|
37.6%
|
28
|
11.7%
|
5
|
22.7%
|
12
|
-1.4
|
24
|
Neither of these teams is an offensive powerhouse, but the Reds appear to be the better of two weak offenses based on wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA, and they also walk 3.6% more.
Edge – CIN
Conclusion: Offensively, I give the Reds a small edge. At starting pitcher, I give the Reds a bigger edge. Castillo is a known commodity. Bubic shows some promises, but 2 starts at home is a very small sample size. Unfortunately I do not trust the Reds pen which has been atrocious. I’m not sure if the Royals pen is really as good as they appear, but so far they’ve performed much better. I can only look 1st 5 here, but the price is high so I’m looking to parlay the Reds 1st 5, thus avoiding the Reds pen.
Pick – CIN 1st 5
BALT @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIER
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB %
|
HC %
|
BALT
|
Cobb – R
|
|
2
|
0
|
1.12
|
2.51
|
4.21
|
3.30
|
3.58
|
9.42
|
3.77
|
2.50
|
1.26
|
0.276
|
0.211
|
91.6%
|
65.0%
|
42.5%
|
PHIL
|
Wheeler - R
|
|
2
|
0
|
1.15
|
2.08
|
4.03
|
4.45
|
4.98
|
4.15
|
2.77
|
1.50
|
0.69
|
0.279
|
0.270
|
80.9%
|
55.3%
|
23.7%
|
Both of these guys have pitched very well so far this season. In his first start against the Red Sox, Alex Cobb has started e games for the Orioles this season, and has yet to have a bad outing. He’s given up 4 runs on 10 hits and 6 walks over 14.1 innings with 15 Ks and an impressive 65% GB rate. Cobb’s days with the Rays (2011-2017) seems like a long time ago. Cobb made 29 starts for the Rays in 2017, posting a 12-10 record with a solid 1.22 WHIP and 3.55 ERA. However, in his two seasons with the Orioles Cobb was limited to just 31 starts posting an ugly 5-17 record with a poor 1.45 WHIP and a horrendous 5.36 ERA. His ERA metrics, a 5.33 FIP, a 4.50 xFIP and a 4.65 SIERA, weren’t much better. Last season, Cobb gave up 16 runs on 21 hits (9 HRs) and 2 walks in 12.1 April innings before missing the rest of the season after surgery for a right hip impingement. I had no idea what to expect from Cobb going into this season. On the plus side, he’s only 2 season removed from the quality starter that he was with the Rays and in terms of wear and tear on his arm, even less. Another plus is that his season ending injury last season had nothing to do with his arm, so I guess there is some unpside potential. That said, Cobb still wasn’t very good, even when healthy, back in 2018. He made 28 starts producing a 5-15 record with a 1.41 WHIP, a 4.90 ERA, and ERA metrics that weren’t any better. The only question here is how much of that was on Cobb, and how much on the Orioles, who sucked. So far, Cobb’s been much better than he was last season. My concerns are his .211 BABIP, his 91.6% strand rate and that 65% GB rate. Those numbers are simply not sustainable and as they normalize I would expect some negative regression from Cobb.
Zack Wheeler has started 2 games for the Phillies and delivered 2 quality starts, including holding the potent Yankees to 3 runs (2 earned on 6 hits and 2 walks over 6 innings. Overall, he has give up just 4 runs on 11 hits and 4 walks over 13 innings with 6 Ks. Wheeler pitched well in his return last season, after undergoing TJ surgery. He got off to a terrible start with two really poor outings in his first two starts, but Wheeler went on to start 31 games for the Mets, delivering an 11-8 record, winning 10 of his last 11 decisions with 20 good starts, including his last 6, and only 10 poor ones. His 1.26 WHIP was solid, as was his 3.96 ERA. Wheeler’s ERA metrics, a 3.43 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA were mostly consistent with his ERA. Wheeler’s 23.5% K rate was excellent, but his 6% walk rate was a little on the high side. However, it should be noted that 7 of his 50 walks came in one poor start early on. On the plus side, he didn’t giving up a lot of hard contact, with just a 31.4% hard contact rate. He also generated a decent 43.2% GB rate.
High Ks, low hard contact and a fair amount ot GBs were solid reasons for optimism about Wheeler going into this season. So far, he’s given up very little hard contact and generated GBs, but he’s been light on the Ks, and that’s surprising considering that he starts with a 97 mph FB.
I’m expecting regression from Cobb sooner rather than later. This is closer than I would have expected, but…
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
The O’s pen has been solid. They’ve won 4 games, converted two thirds of their save opportunities, and allowed slightly less than half a run per inning with a solid WHIP and ERA. By contrast, the Phils pen has been a disaster with a miserable 58.4% strand rate, 1.94 WHIP and 9.87 ERA. They’ve also allowed more than a run for every inning pitched.
Edge – BALT
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BALT
|
4.64
|
13
|
0.332
|
4
|
113
|
4
|
8.3
|
5
|
0.195
|
7
|
40.7%
|
18
|
8.6%
|
20
|
21.1%
|
5
|
-0.4
|
17
|
PHIL
|
5.00
|
7
|
0.315
|
15
|
99
|
17
|
-1.5
|
20
|
0.174
|
12
|
42.6%
|
12
|
7.7%
|
24
|
24.2%
|
20
|
-0.5
|
19
|
This is actually pretty damn close. The O’s have the better wOBA, wRC+, ans ORAA. They also walk a little more and strike out a little less. The Phils score more runs per game and make more hard contact. I guess that I give the edge to the O’s but it’s a very small one.
Edge – BALT small
Conclusion: The O’s have the much better bullpen and possibly the better offense albeit by a small margin, but I think that the Phils have the better starting pitcher going tonight. Both have pitched well so far, but Cobb seems to have benefitted from some very good luck on batted ball and stranding men on base, not to mention and unsustainable GB rate. Eventually as those numbers normalize, more bated balls going for hits, more runner on base scoring and less GBs. I like the Phils tonight, but with that bullpen, only on a 1st 5.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 parlay
WASH @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIER
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB %
|
HC %
|
WASH
|
Scherzer
|
|
1
|
1
|
1.32
|
3.29
|
2.51
|
2.38
|
3.25
|
14.49
|
5.27
|
2.75
|
0.66
|
0.276
|
0.333
|
78.3%
|
59.5%
|
50.0%
|
NYM
|
Porcello
|
|
1
|
2
|
1.77
|
6.92
|
2.67
|
4.58
|
5.06
|
6.92
|
4.15
|
1.67
|
0.00
|
0.344
|
0.378
|
47.8%
|
40.9%
|
47.7%
|
In his last start on Aug. 7, Max Scherzer was forced to exit the game following the 1st inning after tweaking his hamstring. It was clear that the injury was affecting his command and velocity, so he took himself out of the game rather than continue and risk further injury. All reports indicate that Scherzer is good to go tonight after successfully completing a bullpen session over the weekend. There’s been no mention of a pitch count or any limitations for him so we can expect Scherzer to pitch his usual full workload. After a weird first outing against the Yankees in which he gave up 4 runs and 4 walks in 5,1 innings, but fanned 11, Scherzer righted his ship with 7.1 shutout innings against the Jays. He gave up 3 hits and 2 walks, and struck out 10. At almost 36, Scherzer is still an elite starting pitcher, as long as he’s healthy, but that was more problematic last season than ever before in his illustrious career. Scherzer went on the IL twice last season, for just the second and third times in his MLB career. That snapped his run of 200+ inning seasons x. Scherzer also encountered more than his share of bad luck last season. No one expected the Nats to be just 14-13 in Scherzer’s 27 regular season starts, but they were. Of course, that had a lot more to do with the Nats crappy bullpen, than it did with how well Scherzer pitched. Despite his injury woes and a mediocre 11-7 record, Scherzer still delivered 18 good starts to just 6 poor ones in his 27 outings. Scherzer’s 1.03 WHIP was very good, as was his 2.92 ERA. His ERA metrics, a 2.45 FIP, a 2.88 xFIP and a 2.93 SIERA, were all really good as well. His .321 BABIP was a ridiculous 32 points higher than his career average. That was just bad luck. Scherzer added a half an mph to his already dominant FB. His 35.1% K rate was still elite, particularly when coupled with an excellent 4.8% walk rate and a solid 0.94 HR/9 ratio. Sherzer also boosted his GB rate to over 40%, his highest mark since 2009. By all rights, Scherzer’s results should have been much better than they actually were. Scherzer also started 5 playoff games and made 1 relief appearance, posting a 3-0 record with a 1..20 WHIP and a 2.40 ERA over 30 innings. He may no longer be the best starting pitcher in baseball, but Scherzer is still an elite starting pitcher. If he’s healthy, fade him at your own peril.
Rick Porcello finally had a good outing last time out. Amazingly, he held these very same Nats to 1 run on 5 hits over 7 innings with 4 Ks. I say amazingly because Porcello was atrocious in both of his other starts for the Mets. In those 2 starts, he’s gave up a total of 11 runs (9 earned) on 12 hits and 6 walks in 6 innings, with as many walks as Ks. That’s 11 runs and 18 baserunners in his first 6 innings! Porcello somehow won the AL Cy Young award back in 2016. He must have sold his soul to the devil to get it because he was never that good, but during that one season, absolutely everything went right for him. The reality is that except for that one magical season, Porcello has always been mediocre, and now he’s even worse. Porcello finished last season 14-12 with 16 good starts, as compared to 12 poor ones His 1.39 WHIP was high as was his 5.52 ERA. Porcello’s ERA metrics, a 4.76 FIP, a 5.14 xFIP, and 4.86 SIERA, were all a little lower than his ugly ERA, but still lousy. While he was still able to limit his walks (5.8%), his K rate declined almost 5%, and his hard contact rate was almost 5% higher than his career average The only real plus I can find is that Porcello’s been extremely durable. From 2014-18, Porcello ranked 3rd in innings pitched behind workhorses Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber. Porcello is durable, but that’s about it.
I’m just not buying Rick Porcello and I certainly do not expect a second straight quality start.
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
I don’t like or trust either of these bullpens. The Nats pen has the better W/L record, a solid 81% strand rate, the better runs per inning WHIP and ERA, while the Mets have a slightly better, but still lousy save rate, with more Ks and fewer walks. I’m calling it a wash.
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
4.08
|
23
|
0.320
|
12
|
105
|
14
|
3.4
|
15
|
0.179
|
10
|
40.6%
|
20
|
5.7%
|
30
|
22.3%
|
9
|
-0.1
|
16
|
NYM
|
4.12
|
21
|
0.323
|
8
|
111
|
7
|
8.5
|
4
|
0.203
|
3
|
38.8%
|
26
|
9.2%
|
15
|
19.3%
|
2
|
0.0
|
15
|
The Mets have the better wOBA, wRC+ and ORAA. They’ve also walked more and struck out less.
Edge – NYM
Conclusion: This one is simple for me. I’m betting that the much better pitcher can keep a lid on the Mets offense, and that the Nats will get to Porcello for a few runs. I want no part of either of these bullpens, so this will be a 1st 5 wager as well. Apparently the oddsmakers agree because the Nats are a -170 right now.
Pick – WASH 1st 5 parley