BOS @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:07
|
|
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K %
|
BB %
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
BOS
|
Godley – R
|
|
2
|
6
|
1.50
|
5.97
|
5.20
|
5.43
|
5.22
|
17.2%
|
10.3%
|
1.37
|
.388
|
0.297
|
65.6%
|
0.60
|
38.4%
|
43.0%
|
NYY
|
Tanaka – R
|
|
16
|
14
|
1.23
|
4.47
|
4.29
|
4.25
|
4.44
|
19.8%
|
5.2%
|
1.41
|
0.313
|
0.290
|
70.6%
|
0.27
|
39.4%
|
47.5%
|
Zack Godley Started just 9 games last season with 2 good starts, and 6 poor ones. His WHIP and ERA were sky high and his ERA metrics weren’t much better. Godley had a lousy K rate and a high walk rate
Masahiro Tanaka was very inconsistent last season, and was definitely showing signs of decline. Tanaka delivered a mediocre 11-9 record 16 good starts and 14 poor ones in his 31 outings. That’s not an impressive ratio. Tanaka’s 1.24 WHIP was solid, but his 4.45 ERA was very mediocre, and so were his ERA metrics, a 4.29 FIP, a 4.25 xFIP, and a 4.44 SIERA. The long ball continued to plague Tanaka. He gave up 28 last season, and it became more a question of how many runners would be on base when he gave them up. Tanaka’s 19.6% K rate represented a 4.4% decline from 2018, and was the lowest of his MLB career. When Tanaka first arrived in NY, he featured a devastating hard splitter. He was absolutely dominant. Arm trouble, and the threat of TJ surgery forced him to abandon the splitter, but he still threw hard. He wasn’t quite as dominant, but he was still very good. These days, as his velocity has declined, Tanaka has rediscovered his splitter, but he doesn’t throw it hard like he used to. Now he throws it more like a knuckler. It should also be noted that Tanaka has been much worse on the road posting a 1.42 WHIP, a 6.05 ERA and a .351 wOBA against in his 15 road starts. That compares to a 1.09 WHIP, a 3.10 ERA, and a ,289 wOBA against at Yankeee Stadium. Tanaka is no longer the dominant pitcher that he was back when he first joined the Yankees. Now, he’s much less reliable, and more prone to bad starts. While Tanaka was a barely adequate starting pitcher during the regular season, he was much better in his 3 postseason starts. Tanaka was very good in the 5 innings that he worked in his ALDS start against the Twins. He gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk with 7 Ks. He was even better in his ALCS game 1 start in HTN, shutting out the potent Astros on 1 hit and 1 walk over 6 innings, with 4 Ks in the Yanks 7-0 win. He struggled a bit more in his game 4 start at Yankee Stadium, giving up 4 runs (3 earned) over 5 innings with 1 K and 2 walks in the Astros 8-4 win. That left Tanaka with a with a 2-1 record, a with a 0.75 WHIP and a 2.25 ERA over 15 playoff innings.
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
The Yankee bullpen didn’t perform as well as I expected last season, and they haven’t so far this season, but it was and istill s still very good. This bullpen is missing closer Aroldis Chapman right now, but they still have former O’s closer Zack Britton. Going on down to guys like Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, and even Chad Green, this bullpen is not only talented, it’s also deep and as a result shouldn’t be all that affected by the three-batter rule change.
The Red Sox bullpen has looked about as good as the Yankee have…so far. They have better advanced ERA metrics, a better K rate and a better walk rate, but a lower strand rate, a higher R/IP, and a higher WHIP
The Orioles pen is nowhere near as talented as the Yanks pen. So far they allowing over ¾ of a run for every inning pitched, with a miserable 58.8% strand rayte, a 2.00 WHIP and an ERA over 7.00.
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BOS
|
5.14
|
10
|
4.2
|
10
|
0.340
|
5
|
116
|
8
|
0.171
|
14
|
7.1%
|
24
|
20.1%
|
6
|
39.9%
|
18
|
-0.7
|
28
|
NYY
|
5.20
|
9
|
2.6
|
12
|
0.324
|
10
|
112
|
11
|
0.210
|
6
|
9.4%
|
14
|
28.7%
|
28
|
51.9%
|
1
|
0.0
|
12
|
These are two potent offenses. Last season the Yankess ranked 2nf in wOBA and wRC+. The Red Sox weren’t far behind, raking 6th and 4th respectively, but they lost Mookie Betts during the offseason. . This is a classic example of why I am sometimes wary of early season numbers. Look at one stat in particular, hard contact. The Yankees rank #1 in hard contact. Over half of their contact is hard contact. It’s just a matter of time before this offense explodes. The Yankees were a top five offense even though Giancalo Stanton missed most of the season and Aaron Judge also missed a couple of months worth of plate appearances. By contrast, The Red Sox only rank 18th in hard contact with a 39.9% rate.
Edge - NYY I don’t care what the early stats say. The Yanks should be even better than last season, and the Red Sox may not be as good.
Conclusion: It’s simple. Even if I consider the pitching matchup to be even, everything else says Yankees. They have the better pen and the better offense. That’s why they are priced so damn high. It’s also why it’s PARLAY rime.
Pick – NYY ML
TB @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:35
|
|
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K %
|
BB %
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
TB
|
Glasnow
|
|
8
|
0
|
0.89
|
0.78
|
2.26
|
2.94
|
3.18
|
33.0%
|
6.1%
|
0.59
|
0.222
|
0.265
|
84.7%
|
0.18
|
28.8%
|
50.5%
|
BALT
|
LeBlanc
|
|
2
|
6
|
1.85
|
8.35
|
6.57
|
5.35
|
5.01
|
16.9%
|
5.1%
|
2.95
|
0.426
|
0.370
|
62.5%
|
0.34
|
35.0%
|
40.0%
|
Tyler Glasnow got off to a great start allowing the Braves just a solo HR over 4 innings, with 9 Ks and 2 walks. He got off to a great start with the Rays last season too,tossing 8 good starts in his 8 outings. He throws super hard and has a great curve that he throws about 29% of the time, but he’s been very injury pron. Last season he went down on May 11 with a strained forearm. After returning on September 8, Glasnow did make 4 more regular season starts, and two ALDS starts against the Astros giving 8 runs on 14 hits and 8 walks over 19 innings with 29 Ks, but never went more than 4.1 innings, averaging just over 3 innings per start. Glasnow had a superb 0.89 WHIP, a 1.78 ERA and superb ERA metrics. He struck out over a batter per inning, limiting his walks (25), HRs (6) and hard contact (28.8%)), all while generating a 50.4% GB rate. His 84.7% strand rate was abnormally high and should regress. The only real question with Glasnow is that as impressive as he looked last season, injuries again limited him to just 67.2 innings. Glasnow has worked as many as 150 innings in a season just once, and that came in 2017 when he made 28 starts between Triple-A and the majors. There’s nothing else in Glasnow’s profile that’s all that troubling. Last seasonm It sure looked like Glasnow may have finally figured it out, and he could be a potent weapon for the Rays, if he can stay healthy.
Wade LeBlanc
Wade LeBlanc only started 8 games this season. Two were good, and six were poor. His WHIP was very high, and so was his ERA and ERA metrics. Leblanc doesn’t miss many bats and he does give up walks.
Edge – TB big
Bullpens
The Rays have one of the best bullpens in the league. The O’s don’t. Their 0.80 R/IP is ugly
Edge – TB
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
TB
|
5.43
|
7
|
2.1
|
13
|
0.323
|
12
|
107
|
13
|
0.170
|
15
|
12.4%
|
4
|
23.6%
|
14
|
40.3%
|
18
|
0.0
|
BALT
|
5
|
12
|
-0.2
|
14
|
0.315
|
14
|
106
|
14
|
0.200
|
8
|
10.1%
|
11
|
18.5%
|
3
|
38.6%
|
20
|
-0.2
|
It’s close
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Rays are simply the better team. That’s why they are heavy favs.
Pick – TB Parlay
HTN @ LAA
The Astros jumped on
7:07
|
SP 2019
|
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K %
|
BB %
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
HTN
|
Greinke - R
|
|
26
|
10
|
0.98
|
2.93
|
3.22
|
3.,74
|
3.96
|
23.1%
|
3.7%
|
0.91
|
0.263
|
,271
|
75.7%
|
0.16
|
36.2%
|
52.4%
|
LAA
|
Canning - R
|
|
10
|
7
|
1.18
|
4.18
|
4.26
|
4.73
|
4.31
|
25.3%
|
7.8%
|
1.32
|
|
0.272
|
75.7%
|
0.31
|
41.6%
|
6.2%
|
Zack Greinke struggles in his first start against the Mariners. Greinke gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 2 Ks. With the departure of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander’s season ending injury, Greinke becomes the defacto ace for the Astros. Overall, he started 33 regular season games for the Diamondbacks and Astros, and 5 more in the playoffs, delivering a 20-8 record with 26 good starts to 10 poor ones. Greinke was very good with the Astros last season, posting a 10-4 record in 15 starts with 9 good starts to 4 poor ones. Overall, Greinke’s 0.98 WHIP and 2.93 ERA were excellent. His ERA metrics, a 3.22 FIP, a 3.74 xFIP and a 3.96 SIERA were all a little higher than his ERA, but still very good. His GB% jumped from 41.8% to 52.4%, but his 23.1% K rate dropped a bit and leaves something to be desired. Greinke made up for that with superb contact management skills. Greinke was slightly more dependent on sliders and changeups with the Astros. At age 36, his mediocre FB isn’t enough anymore. He’ll need to rely more on his three solid secondary offerings that he effectively switches up to keep hitters off-balance. Greinke also struggled more in his 5 postseason starts posting a 1.36 WHIP and a 4.66 ERA, giving up 24 hits (6 HRs) and an uncharacteristic 10 walks with 25 Ks over 25 innings Greinke’s biggest strength was that he didn’t create problems by posting a miniscule 3.7% walk rate (just 30 in 208.2 regular season 1P), He also did a good job of limiting the long ball (21 HRs), and the hard contact (36.2%). Greinke has posted a 3.21 or better ERA n six of his last seven seasons, with an injury-shortened 2016 being the only exception. His 2.90 ERA since the start of 2013 ranks him 2nd behind only Max Scherzer among pitchers who have thrown at least as many innings as he has. At 36, Greinke is facing some age-related decline, but his repertoire and approach help limit his risk. I expect that Greinke will still be good again this season, but just not an ace.
Griffin Canning also struggles some in his first start at OAK. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hit and 2 walk, but did fan 7. Canning started 17 games for the Angels, with 10 good starts and 7 poor ones. His 1.22 WHIP was solid, but his 4.58 ERA was high. His ERA metrics, a 4.37 FIP, a 4.75 xFIP, and a 4.33 SIERA, are consistent with his ERA. Canning’s 25% K rate was impressive, but his 7.8% walk rate was high. He is a fly ball pitcher, so his 1.39 HR/9 rate was not unexpected. I’m still not sure what to make of Canningm who got hurt and lost valuable development time with only 90.1 innings last season. The upside is obviously the K potential is significant. Canning possesses a potentially devastating FB, a potentially above-average fFB, and potentially decent third and fourth offerings. He was a top prospect who compiled a 1.15 WHIP with a 3.27 ERA in his speedy ascent to the majors. It’s fair to expect Canning might be better than league-average. The downside is his propensity for giving up too free passes. However, 90 innings just isn’t a large enough a sample to know how good Canning will ultimately be. His 90 inning MLB debut both oversells and undersells his abilities, but my guess is that ultimately there’s more upside than his first 90 innings showed.
Edge – HTN, but it’s not as big as you might expect.
Bullpens
The Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Osuna is an elite closer, but they do appear more top heavy than usual.
The Angels pen doesn’t thrill me either, but it’s doesn’t project as awful either. Last season the Angels pen ranked in the lower half of the middle tier of bullpens and they didn’t add anybody to the unit. The Angels bullpen also worked 7.2 innings last night, so that;s another concern.
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
6.00
|
3
|
6.8
|
6
|
0.333
|
10
|
118
|
8
|
0.151
|
22
|
12.2%
|
5
|
19.5%
|
5
|
39.9%
|
19
|
0.6
|
3
|
LAA
|
4.88
|
14
|
3.7
|
11
|
0.322
|
12
|
109
|
11
|
0.185
|
11
|
11.8%
|
6
|
19.2%
|
3
|
50.0%
|
2
|
0.3
|
6
|
The Astros had the best offense in almost every category. They are projected to be one of the best offenses again this season
The Angels, they had about a league average offense last season without Anthoy Redon and with Mike Trout only playing in 114 games and Jutin Upton only playing 63. They started the season without Redon, but he’s now back, but Trout is currently on paternity leave and that’s huge in this series. The Angels will go as far as Trout takes them, but he can’t do it alone. Trout’s been carrying this team forever and they still can’t get anywhere. It’s not his fault! Since 2012, Trout posted wOBAs of .409, .423, .402, .415, .418, .437, .447, and .436. He has been at least 67% above league average offensively in each of his eight seasons. He’s a freak and he’s the best player in the league. With Trout, Rndon and Upton, the Angels should have a much unproved offense despite the detrimental effects of their home park, but Trout’s absence will hurt in this series.
Edge – HTN Without Trout, the Angels can’t match up.
Conclusion: The Astros appear to have all the edge. Offensively the Angels don’t have Trout, and in the bullpen the Astros have the better unit. As for the two starting pitchers, that’s closer.
Pick – HTN