For what it’s worth, yesterday I was looking for a bounce back and I sort of got one. I liked a lot of heavy favorites so I went on a parlay sweep. I liked six big favs so I mixed and matched them in two-team ML parlays. Four of the six won, so although I only went 5-6 in my 11 parlays, I still picked up about 4.5 units because they were all at lus odds. That’s why I love those ML parlays.
Unfortunately my three straight bets didn’t fare as well. The Reds crapped the bed and the 1st 5 under in that game also lost on a 5th inning run. Fortunately, I got very lucky with the Braves ML. I had no business winning that game, but I did.
All that left me +2.09 units for the day and +2.56 units for the season. That’s hardly impressive, but it’s a start.
Well, today is another day and I don’t like many games, so let’s get to it.
CLEV @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHI
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K %
|
BB %
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
CLEV
|
Carrasco - R
|
|
4
|
6
|
1.35
|
5.29
|
4.41
|
3.50
|
3.53
|
28.2%
|
4.7%
|
2.03
|
0.348
|
0.354
|
73.1%
|
0.17
|
40.1%
|
40.8%
|
MINN
|
Maeda - R
|
|
15
|
8
|
1.11
|
4.14
|
3.99
|
4.17
|
4.22
|
26.2%
|
8.4%
|
1.25
|
0.306
|
0.249
|
71.1%
|
0.30
|
32.5%
|
40.6%
|
Carlos Carracso came back with a vengeance in his first start of the season. He held the Royals to 2 runs on 5 hits and a walk over 6 innings with 10 Ks in his 2020 debut. The strange thing about Carrasco is that throughout his career there’s never really been an in between with him. He’s either lights out or he’s awful. Fortunately for the Indians, Carrasco’s been more good than bad through his career. However, last season was totally different. Last May, Carrasco was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia. He missed three months while undergoing treatment, but returned and pitched 15 innings in relief in September. Carrasco made just 12 starts before his diagnosis, delivering a 4-6 record with 4 very good starts, 6 poor ones, 1 mediocre one, and 1 that would have been good (0 runs allowed) but he only lasted 4 innings. That’s left Carrasco with a higher than usual 1.31 WHIP, and a very high 4.98 ERA. However, Carrasco’s ERA metrics, a 4.14 FIP, a 3.48 xFIP, and a 3.49 SIERA are all about a full run better that his high ERA. A BABIP that was 44 points higher than his career average tells me that Carrasco had some really bad luck. A 6% dip in GB rate was another factor in his BABIP increase. His 28.1% K rate was still elite, but Carrasco gave up 8.8% more hard contact than his career rate, and that was problematic. He still threw the occasional gem, just not as often or as consistently. Carrasco enters this season as a potential bounce back candidate, but with an element of risk. He already had some hip soreness early in camp, but he did win 35 games between 2017 and 2018 while logging almost 400 innings. If he’s able to return, he’s probably worth the risk. The Indians are just hoping to get a return to normal for Carrasco and so far they’ve gotten that and more, but he’ll get a much stiffer test than the Royals when he faces the Twins.
Kenta Maeda AL debut at the White Sox went pretty well. He gave up 2 runs on 4 it and a walk over 5 innings with 6 Ks. We saw a big usage change in that first start. Maeda threw 32.1% changeups and 34.5% sliders. Both were way up from last season. That could makes him an awful matchup for the Indians. The Indians looked laughably bad against hLucas Giolito’s changeup earlier this week. They don’t hit changeups. Maeda’s last three seasons haven’t been bad, but they also haven’t been great. His career has been marred by playing time manipulation and a general failure to live up to his potential. Maeda started 26 games for the Dodgers last season and delivered 15 good starts as compared to 8 poor outings. His 1.11 WHIP as a starter was solid, but his 4.14 ERA was mediocre. Maeda’s 4.04 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, and 4.06 SIERA were all consistent with that ERA. Maeda’s 27.1% K rate was good, but his 8.2% walk rate, while not awful, was still the highest of his career. Stranding runners (a 65.5% strand rate) and a slowly rising walk rate have been persistent weaknesses. On the plus side, Maeda did not give up a lot (32.5%) of hard contact, showing excellent baserunner prevention in terms of both K’s and contact management skills. Of course, with his innings limited by the Dodgers, he also rarely went deep into his starts, averaging just under 5.1 innings per start.
This season Maeda goes from one smart organization to another, but how he is used could be very different. The Dodgers had always manipulated Maeda’s innings limiting him to roughly 138 innings in each of the last three seasons. With the Twins, he should be unshackled from the innings restrictions and competition that he faced in LA, and he won’t have to constantly shift from starter to reliever, like he did in LA. Those are the positives. The Twins should also be a good fit for Maeda, especially with a decent defense. It may not be on the level of the Dodgers, but it’s still more than adequate. The problem is that Maeda will no longer be protected by Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers, Maeda was always better at home. In 303.1 home innings, Maeda allowed a .273 wOBA, with a 1.07 WHIP, a 3.23 ERA a 3.43 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP. In 285.2 road innings, Maeda allowed a.306 wOBA with a 1.24 WHIP, a 4.54 ERA a 4.01 FIP and a 3.91 xFIP. Maeda went from being very good at home to slightly above average on the road. That said, it’s also worth noting that 25 of the 40 home runs that Maeda allowed on the road came in his first two seasons, so he did improve some in those road outings. Now, Maeda will also have to face an extra hitter with the DH in the AL. Maeda throws two separate secondary pitches that have swinging strike rates of over 19% more than 50% of the time. Only one other pitcher (Luis Castillo) met these criteria. Moreover, Maeda also ranks 9th in expected wOBA (xwOBA) among 57 pitchers who have thrown 9,000+ pitches since his 2016 debut. His floor is at least league average, but there’s a lot of upside as well, which is better than most of the Twins other options offer.
Edge – I kind of lean MINN but officially No Edge
Bullpens
These are two good bullpens. I give the Indians a small edge based mostly on their almost twice as good R/IP, but their 65% strand rate concerns me.
Edge – CLEV very slight.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
3.12
|
29
|
-6.9
|
26
|
0.290
|
25
|
82
|
24
|
0.101
|
29
|
10.2%
|
10
|
22.5%
|
10
|
30.8%
|
30
|
-0.4
|
24
|
MINN
|
5.71
|
5
|
1.1
|
17
|
0.320
|
14
|
104
|
16
|
0.192
|
8
|
8.2%
|
20
|
23.4%
|
13
|
34.3%
|
27
|
-0.1
|
15
|
Last season, the Twins has an incredibly prolific offense. They ranked 2nd in wOBA and wRC+ amd set the MLB record for HRs. By contrast, the Indians were around league average. They ranked 14th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+. So far the Twins haven’t hit as well as they did last season. Maybe a different ball is having an effect, or maybe it’s just way early. This Indians have been even worse, consistently ranking near the bottom. The Twins will hit. The Indians will need big season from Ramirez and Lindor to compete.
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: There’s no question that the Twins have the much better offense and they haven’t even hit their stride yet. The bullpens are close and the starting pitching matchup is intriguing. Carrasco looked really good, but that was against the Royals. Shutting down the Twins is an entirely different story. Maeda also looked good and unveiled a major pitch usage change. I think the Twins get some runs here, but I’m not sure that the Indians will.
Pick – MINN ML -115 for 2 units.
I also bet two ML parlays. I don’t have the write ups done yet, but here they are:
2-TEAM ML parlay – NYY ML + TB ML +135 for 3 units
2 – Team ML parlay – HTN ML + OAK ML +181 for 2 units