For what it’s worth, last season ended up being my best season ever. I finished +236 units. I guess that begs the question. What, if anything, did I do differently? My answer is that I played a lot more two-team ML parlays.
Two-team ML parlays offer much better odds. You can actually win money by hitting at a 50% or slightly better clip. That’s almost unheard of in today’s betting environment. Of course, the opposing argument is that it’s tough enough to pick one winner without compounding the problem by trying to pick two. True enough, but the reality is that in MLB, big favorites usually win. The track record of big favorites (-180 or more) is incredibly strong, around 80%. The problem is that they’re so damned expensive that you have to win about three of every four ML wagers to show any kind of profit, and even if you manage to hit that 75%, the profit margin isn’t all that substantial because of the high price. Two-team ML parlays offer much better odds. Yes, it’s not easy picking one winner, much less two, but big favorites have a superb track record, so it’s not exactly rocker science either. The only question is whether that favorite you’re considering really deserves to be such a prohibitive favorite. For example, on July 17 the Nats were visiting the Orioles. The pitching matchup was Eric Fedde v Aaron Brooks. The Nats were a -172 favorite. The Nats were obviously the much better team, but was Eric Fedde really any better than Aaron Brooks. I used six teams in six different parlays that night. Five were 2-team parlays and one was a 3-team parlay. Of the six teams, five won their games. Only the Nats didn’t. In retrospect, the Nats were a bad bet. There is no way that the Nats, with Fedde on the hill, should have been that big a favorite. I was just so hell bent on fading the Os and Aaron Brooks that I refused to admit that Fedde was no better. I should have passed that game completely. So how did it all work out?
On July 16, I started experimenting with mostly two-team parlays, although I dabbled with a few multi-team parlays too. I’m a numbers guy, so I kept meticulous records to determine just how well this experiment would work. What I can say is that the experiment was successful. This chart will give you the summary by month.
Parlays
|
Two-Team
|
P/L
|
|
Multi Team
|
P/L
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
JULY
|
18-20
|
20.03
|
|
(3-1)
|
10.84
|
AUG
|
103-70
|
66.99
|
|
(2-8)
|
0.76
|
SEPT
|
99-107
|
26.04
|
|
(3-5)
|
-2.66
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
220-197
|
113.06
|
|
(8-14)
|
8.94
|
As you can see, last season my two-team parlays finished 220-197 (52.8%). That’s not bad, but it’s hardly spectacular either. As for parlays involving more than two teams, my record was 8-14 (just 36.4%). What is amazing is that I netted +113.06 units on my two-team parlays and even managed to eke out +8.94 units on my multi team parlays despite that 36.4% winning rate. For $100 a unit players, that’s a $12,200 profit. Even for smaller $25 unit players that’s still a $3,050 profit.
It’s all about the odds! What’s not debatable is that big favorites are the safest bet. They cash around 80% of the time. The problem is that because the odds are so damned prohibitive, you have to win at least 75% of the time placing straight M: wagers to eke out even a small profit. What I realized is that parlaying two big favorites changed the odds dramatically. I may not have won as often, but I did win more $$$, and isn’t that the real bottom line? At the end of the day on July 15, I was +59.22 units for the season, not too shabby, but from that point on I added another 176.78 units to my season total. Now that is pretty amazing to me.
That’s enough about last season. We are on the verge of a new and radically different MLB season. We’re in totally uncharted waters. It’s a 60 game season instead of a 162 game season. There will likely be no fans in the ballparks. There will be a universal DH. Pitcher’s won’t have to hit. Some players, such as Mike Leake (who cares) and David Price (the Dodgers might care) are opting out of the entire season and more may do so as we get closer to the openers. There’s been no real spring training in quite a while so not much time to get ready.
A 60 game schedule means that teams who get off to really bad starts could be out of it early, and teams that get off to great starts might not be catchable. Remember last season’s Mariners. They started 13-2, but finished 68-94. How will the absence of fans in the ballparks affect home field advantage? Damned if I know. What will the impact of a universal DH have on NL teams? We don’t even know for sure who is and who isn’t playing or what the starting lineups look like. Who’ll be ahead when the season starts, hitters or pitchers? Beats me!
There’s a hell of a lot more than usual that we don’t know about the 202 MLB season. My only consolation is that I doubt that the oddsmakers know much more than we do. They’ll be guessing too and they’ll probably get it wrong more often than they usually do, at least I hope so.
The season starts in 13 days with two games on tap. We have lines for both games and three out of four starting pitchers have been named, so let’s get to it. It’s a small slate, and yes I am way early, but the good part is I can go into even more detail and depth than I usually do and post a lot earlier than I usually post. We’ll see how it all works out.
NYY @ WASH
The Yankees were one of the three teams that won over 100 games in the AL last season. They did so despite just two position players having more than 550 plate appearances. They did so without star pitcher Luis Severino, who threw just 2 innings. They did so with Aaron Judge missing 60 games and Giancarlo Stanton only playing 18 games. It wasn’t always pretty, but with a dominant bullpen and a plenty of depth the Yankees still managed to win 103 games before losing to the Astros in 6 games in the ALCS.
Last season, the Nationals finally won a World Series title, ending a decade of playoff heartbreak. They finished the regular season 93-69, winning their last eight games to land the top NL wild card spot. The Nats went on to win the NL Wild Card game against the Brewers, followed by a stunning Game 5 upset win on the road over the heavily favored Dodgers in the NLDS. They then swept the Cards in the NLCS, and then won that incredible Game 7 on the road at Minute Maid Park in the WS. It indeed was a historic and amazing run,
Starting Pitchers
7:08
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K %
|
BB %
|
HR/9
|
wOBA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
NYY
|
Cole – R
|
31
|
6
|
0.89
|
2.50
|
2.64
|
2.48
|
2.62
|
39.9%
|
5.9%
|
1.23
|
0.246
|
0.275
|
83.3%
|
0.15
|
33.9%
|
40.3%
|
WASH
|
Scherser – R
|
22
|
6
|
1.03
|
2.92
|
2.45
|
2.89
|
2.93
|
35.1%
|
4.8%
|
0.94
|
0.269
|
0.321
|
78.7%
|
0.14
|
35.7%
|
40.8%
|
Edge - NONE
IMHO Gerrit Cole should have been the AL Cy Young Award winner, not Justin Verlander. No offense to Verlander, but Cole delivered a 20-5 record with 27 good starts in his 33 regular season outings, and just 5 poor ones. He had just 2 poor starts after May 22! Cole posted a stellar 0.89 WHIP and an excellent 2.50 ERA. His postseason numbers were no less impressive, a 4-1 record with 4 good starts and just 1 poor one in his 5 playoff starts, with a 0.87 WHIP and a 1.72 ERA. Cole’s ERA metrics, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP and a 2.62 SIERA, were all absolutely consistent with his stellar ERA, and Cole also led the majors with a 39.9% K rate. He notched 326 Ks in his 212.1 regular season innings, with only 48 walks, giving him a great 0.15 BB/K. Cole was elite and had a career season.
Cole added, a bit of velocity and a lot of spin (more than 200 rpm) to his four-seam FB. That nearly doubled the K rate on his FB and added 5.4% to his overall K rate. That one simple fix elevated Cole from above average to elite and at 29, there’s little reason to think that he’ll slow down any time soon. There are park concerns associated with Yankee Stadium, but it just might end up being an upgrade over Minute Maid’s obscenely friendly left field line.
At almost 36, Max Scherzer was still an elite starting pitcher last season, as long as he was healthy. However, that was more problematic last season than ever before. Scherzer went on the IL twice, for just the second and third times in his MLB career last season, and saw his run of 200+ inning seasons end at six. Over that span, only Justin Verlander threw more innings. In July, he suffered an inflamed bursa sac below his right shoulder. The Nats ended up placing him on the IL, retroactive to July 10. He returned on July 25 starting just one game before hitting the IL again.
Scherzer also encountered more than his share of bad luck last season. No one expected the Nats to be just 14-13 in Scherzer’s 27 regular season starts. Of course, that had a lot more to do with the Nats crappy bullpen, than it did with how well Scherzer pitched.
Despite his injury woes and a mediocre 11-7 record, Scherzer still delivered 18 good starts to just 6 poor ones in his 27 outings. Scherzer’s 1.03 WHIP was very good, as was his 2.92 ERA. When we look at his ERA metrics, a 2.45 FIP, a 2.88 xFIP and a 2.93 SIERA, we find that they were all really good as well. His .321 BABIP was a ridiculous 32 points higher than his career average. That was just bad luck. Scherzer actually added a half an mph to his already dominant FB. His 35.1% K rate was elite, particularly when coupled with an excellent 4.8% walk rate and a solid 0.94 HR/9 ratio. Scherzer also boosted his GB rate to over 40%, his highest mark since 2009. By all rights, Scherzer’s results should have been much better than they actually were. My biggest concern going into the playoffs was that Scherzer really hadn’t looked all that sharp after returning from his last IL stint, but all that changed once he hit the playoffs. Scherzer started 5 playoff games and made 1 relief appearance, posting a 3-0 record with a 1..20 WHIP and a 2.40 ERA over 30 innings. At almost 36, with some cracks finally showing in his armor and guys like Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole breathing down his neck, Scherzer may no longer be the best starting pitcher in baseball anymore. Every start may not be a gem, but Scherzer is still elite until he proves otherwise.
Bullpen
Team
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
SV
|
BS
|
SV %
|
R/IP
|
LOB%
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K%
|
BB%
|
BB/K
|
|
NYY
|
7.6
|
43
|
21
|
50
|
25
|
66.7%
|
0.49
|
75.2%
|
1.32
|
4.08
|
4.15
|
4.15
|
3.92
|
26.4%
|
9.4%
|
0.36
|
WASH
|
0.9
|
27
|
33
|
40
|
29
|
58.0%
|
0.57
|
67.3%
|
1.48
|
5.68
|
4.94
|
5.03
|
4.47
|
22.5%
|
9.8%
|
0.44
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edge – NYY
The Yankee bullpen didn’t perform as well as I expected last season, but it was still very good. This bullpen is loaded, starting with closer Aroldis Chapman and going on down to guys like Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino, and even Chad Green. This bullpen is not only talented, it’s also deep and as a result shouldn’t be all that affected by the three-batter rule change.
By contrast, the Nats bullpen was a huge liability last season. They have legitimate health concerns. Both Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle missed time with injuries last season, and Will Harris, the Nats big addition, is coming off a fine season for the Astros, but turns 36 this season. The rest of the Nats pen consists of pitchers that the Nats didn’t trust enough to use in the playoffs. This bullpen is very top-heavy and that could be problematic, especially considering the injuries to Hudson and Doolittle last season.
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
5.77
|
1
|
130.8
|
2
|
0.347
|
2
|
117
|
2
|
0.221
|
2
|
9.1%
|
11
|
23.0%
|
12
|
38.9%
|
13
|
-0.8
|
15
|
WASH
|
5.31
|
6
|
29.0
|
7
|
0.336
|
6
|
103
|
8
|
0.190
|
11
|
9.3%
|
8
|
20.9%
|
4
|
36.1%
|
24
|
3.7
|
12
|
Edge – NYY
Last season, the Yankees had a prolific offense. They ranked #1 in runs scored, and #2 in ORAA, wOBA, wRC+ and ISO, even with Giancalo Stanton missing most of the season and Aaron Judge missing a couple of months. Yes, Yankee Stadium is a bandbox and that helped, but the Yanks ranked 2nd in wRC+, which is both league and park adjusted. The Yanks did almost everything well offensively, except maybe walk too little and strike out too much. They hit for average and for power. They finished with just 1 less HR than the Twins, who set the all-time record for HRs in a season with 307. Eight Yankees hit at least 15 HRs and that was without Miguel Andujar, who missed most of the season. Judge’s HRs were suppressed by injury as were Stanton’s, who only hit 3. 15 Yankees posted a wRC+ of over 100 and 12 of those players are still with the team.
I don’t expect much regression from this offense. HRs could decline with a different ball, but the Yankees should still be among the league leaders. The Yanks should also get more from Judge and Stanton to offset any drops in production from the rest of the lineup. The Yanks did have some cluster luck posting a .293/.364/.518 slash line with men on base and a .249/.320/.469 slash line with the bases empty. That’s a big discrepancy! As those numbers normalizes, it could make the Yanks a mild regression candidate, but they should also hit better with the bases empty this season which should create more run-scoring opportunities. Aside from the expected league-wide power drain that could come from a different ball, the Yankees look every bit as good as last season and should be a top offense again.
The Nats were a top 10 offense themselves last season. The key question is how far their offense falls without 3B Anthony Rendon who left as a free agent and now 1B Ryan Zimmerman who opted out because of Covid concerns. Last season, Rendon produced a .417 wOBA (rank 6th), a 51.8 wRAA (rank 5th), and a 133 wRC+ (rank 5th). Zimmerman ended up playing in just 52 games last season, the fewest since his rookie season and even when he was on the field, his injuries clearly affected his performance. His .313 wOBA, 1.1 wRAA and 89 wRC+ were a far cry from the vintage Zimmerman of just a few seasons ago. The Natis may not exactly be hurting for offense, but the loss of Rendon leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Nats lineup. His 80 walks, 34 HRs, 117 runs, and 126 RBIs won’t be easy to replace.
Juan Soto is really the only bright spot left. He followed up an excellent 2018 season with nearly identical numbers over a full 2019 season. He produced a .384 wOBA, a 42.2 wRAA, and a 142 wRC+. His K rate stayed the same and his walk rate was a little better. He also stole 12 bases. Soto’s ceiling is wide open. As he learns the pitchers and continues to fill out physically, he could be a top-five hitter. His ceiling is legitimately that high. The Nats problem is that after Soto, there’s nobody else on the Nars with that kind of potential and with Rendon in Anaheim, teams may opt to pitch around Soto and take their chances with the rest of the Nats lineup, and I wouldn’t blame them for doing it.
Conclusion: The numbers tell me that the Yankees should win this game. Right now they’re -133 at 5Dimes and that sound about right. Even if I consider these two starting pitchers dead even, the Yanks should have the better offense and the much better bullpen. I don’t know how long each starter will go. I’m guessing at max 6 innings, maybe only 5. That means at least 3 innings from each pen. That certainly favors the Yanks. Still, all that said, I’m just not willing to fade Max Scherzer, so I’m passing on the side. However, the total is another matter. On Tuesday, I saw that a total of 9 (-110) was available and even before I capped this game in any detail, I immediately grabbed the UNDER. It just looked too damned high, especially with Cole and Scherzer on the mound. I obviously don’t know if I’m right yet, but from a value point, I guess I was at least smart. I got the best of the number. The -110 was gone by Wednesday, replaced by a -120. Today, the 9 is also gone. It’s mostly 7.5. I ended up placing two bets. With everything so different this season, I told myself to be cautious and limit my bets to 1 unit each. Well, that didn’t last long. What the hell, it’s only money. They say fortune favors the bold. I hope that’s true and I also hope that I’m being bold and not foolish.
Pick #1 - NYY @ WASH – UNDER 9 (-110 for 2 units)
Pick #2 - Two-team ML Parlay - NYY @ WASH Under 9, and LA Dodgers ML (+160 for 2 units)
I’ haven’t actually capped the SF @ LAD game yet, but I do know that Clayton Kershaw will start for LA. I also know that the Dodgers are among a handful of what should be elite teams while the Giants might be one of the worse. The -275 ML confirms that. I’ll have the complete breakdown by sometime on Monday.
Until then, best wishes to all and have a great season.