For what it’s worth on Sunday, I made my biggest bet of the season (10 units) on the Astros. It sounds a lot mire dramatic than it actually was. As mentioned before, I’ve had a really good MLB season and it’s much easise to make that kind of bet when you’re “playing with house money”.
My original handicap of this game put me on the Astros (-147) for my standard 2 unit bet. I expected a close game that would be low scoring early, and decided late by the bullpens and the offenses. I liked the Astros because of a slightly better offense and a much better bullpen. I also really liked Gerrit Cole, and elite starting pitcher coming off a rare poor outings. That situation is one that I love betting on. Then a little after 4 PM everything changed when Nats Manager Dave Martinez announced the Nats SP Max Scherzer had been scratched because of injury and would be replaced by Joe Ross. That was an incredibly tough break for the Nats, but for me tt was like the perfect storm. All of a sudden, the game looked like a huge mismatch, and the Astros were now a very expensive -210. I believe that if you trust you handicap, when you get that kind of a mismatch, you bet the hell out of it, and that’s exactly what I did.
It worked out perfectly. Ross gave up a 2-run HR in the 2nd, and another in the 4th. Cole was dominant, giving up just 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks over 7 innings, and the Astros rolled to an easy 7-1 win. As unimaginable at it seemed after losing Games 1 and 2 in HTN, The Astros won all three games in WASH and now lead this series three games to two, with a chance to close out this series tonight.
It won’t be easy though. The Nats will send Stephen Strasburg out to the mound tonight, and he’s been their best pitcher in this postseason. The Astros will counter with the very capable Justin Verlander, but he’s been vulnerable to the long ball, giving up 36 HRs during the regular season, and 6 more in the postseason. Uf they can extend this series to a Game 7, it’ll probably be Anibal Sanchez v Zack Greinke. I’d have to give Greinke the edge, but since Greinke pitches to a lot more contact that either Verlander or Getti Cole, batted ball luck could be nore of a factor, but I’m getting way ahead of myself.
As for what I think of tonight’s game, much of this write up will again be repetitive because the offenses and bullpens haven’t changed. I just updated a few stats after Sunday night’s game. I’m sorry about that, but I see no way around it.
WASH @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
8:07
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
WASH
|
Strasburg - R
|
(24/33)
|
(9/33)
|
1.04
|
3.32
|
3.25
|
3.49
|
10.81
|
2.41
|
1.03
|
0.208
|
0.274
|
76.5%
|
0.22
|
30.5%
|
51.1%
|
HTN
|
Verlander - R
|
(28/34)
|
(6/34)
|
0.80
|
2.58
|
3.27
|
2.95
|
12.11
|
1.70
|
1.45
|
0.171
|
0.218
|
88.4%
|
0.14
|
41.8%
|
35.9%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
5.38
|
6
|
29.0
|
7
|
0.336
|
6
|
103
|
8
|
0.190
|
11
|
9.3%
|
8
|
20.9%
|
4
|
36.1%
|
24
|
3.7
|
12
|
HTN
|
5.68
|
3
|
196.6
|
1
|
0.355
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.221
|
3
|
10.1%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-9.5
|
26
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: At the start of June the Nats were just 24-33. They weren’t even a .500 team until June 27, yet they still managed to win 93 regular season games. They played .657 ball over their last 105 games. That was an impressive turnaround, but still not enough to catch the Braves in the NL East. As a result, the Nats had to host the Brewers in a Wild Card game just to get into the NLDS. Then they had to upset the heavily favored Dodgers 3 games to 2 to get to the NLCS. The narrative coming out of that series was that the Dodgers blew it, and there’s some truth to that, but let’s not forget that the Nats still had to actually win that series. They won despite two cross-country flights, and they also won two games at Dodger Stadium, where the Dodgers went 59-22 during the regular season. The Nats then proceeded to sweep the Cardinals, and then took Games 1 and 2 on the road, against the heavily favored Astros, before losing Games 3, 4 and 5 at home, making them 10-5 in 15 postseason games.
The Astros have, for the most part, been dominant, winning their second AL pennant in three years. They won 107 regular season games to set a franchise record. It was the 3rd straight season in which they won at least 100 games, despite a myriad of injuries. Alex Bregman was their only player to play in more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel all played over 140. However, George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa only played 75 games, and Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until midseason. The Astros also lost SPs Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and SP Lance McCullers to injury. None of it seemed to matter. The A’s provided little more than token resistance in the AL West, and the Astros rolled into the postseason. They were pushed to the limit by the pesky Rays in a tough 5-game ALDS, but then polished off the potent Yankees in 6 games despite a stunning Game 1 loss in HTN. Now, they’ve managed to win three games in WASH after losing the first two at home.
The Nats can hit and they’ve shown some flashes of that early in this series. Their offense was not as good as the Astros during the regular season, amd in this series they’ve score 20 runs (17 earned), on 40 hits and 18 walks in 172 ABs, with 5 HRs and 145 Ks. The Nats posted a .350 wOBA in the second half of the season along with a 113 wRC+. Only the Astros and Yankees had better wOBAs. However, the Nats were also somewhat lucky. They benefitted greatly from a .316 BABIP over the second half, which tied with the Rockies for the highest in the league. In other words, they were also lucky on batted balls in play. Look no further than that decisive 7th inning in Game 2.
The Astros had the best offense in baseball during the regular season. However, they’ve now scored 26 runs in this series on 53 hits and 21 walks in 183 ABs, with 9 HRs and 36 Ks. The Astros ranked 3rd in runs per game during the regular season, while the Nats ranked 6th . They ranked 1st in ORAA, wOBA, and wRC+, while the Nats ranked 6th, 6th, and 8th respectively. The Astros ranked 3rd in ISO and HRs, and the Nats ranked 11th and 13th respectively. The Astros walked 0.8% more and struck out 2.7% less. However, the Astros have struggled with RISP going 14 for 45 in this series, after going just 5-for-44 in the ALCS. The Nats haven’t fared any better going 0 for29 last night and just 8 for 40 in this series. Both pitching staff haves done a good job of shutting down the other team’s offense. Never underestimate how far good pitching can take you.
Except for base running, the Astros did everything else a little bit better than the Nats in the regular season. Even when adjusted for non-pitcher offensive stats, the Astros had 455 more plate appearances, hit 58 more HRs, posted a 1.8% lower K rate, a 0.4% higher walk rate, a 2 point higher BA, a 1 point higher on-base percentage, a 26 point higher SLG, a 9 point higher wOBA, and a 15 point higher wRC+. Of course, in a 7 game series, stats don’t mean as much. Anything can happen, and since both of these teams make a lot of contact, batted ball luck matters. It played a big part in Game 2 and could impact other games in this series. The Astros will have a DH for the rest of this series.
Since both pitchers tonight are right-handed, it’s also important to consider how these offenses fared against right handed pitchers. The Astros ranked 1st against RHP with a .351 wOBA, They also had the best wRC+ at 123. The Nats were 8th with a .332 wOBA and 11th with a 101 wRC+.
Another factor to consider is the capacity to make adjustments. The Astros would seem to have that edge. They were 3rd in OPS against a starting pitcher for a 3rd time at .907. By contrast, the Nats ranked 16th at .802. Astro pitchers allowed the lowest OPS at .642 with a pitcher facing a batter for the 3rd time. The Nats allowed the fourth-lowest OPS at .732. The Nationals had a 2.68 K/BB ratio in those plate appearances, while the Astros had a 5.41 K/BB, easily the best in baseball. The Astros rotation would appear to be a little better when it comes to turning the lineup over a 3rd time, but they weren’t facing pitchers of the caliber of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg gave up a .590 OPS the third time around, Scherzer a .619, and Corbin a .620. It was Anibal Sanchez’s .923 that skewed the numbers, along with that of the other non-primary Nats starters.
Bullpens are usually even more important in the playoffs. As for these two, this is the one area where I thought that the Astros would have a significant edge, but, with the exception of Game 4, it hasn’t really mattered. The Nats pen gave up 4 runs on 6 hit and 5 walks in the final 4 innings of Game 4, allowing a close game to become a rout. .
During the regular season, the Nats bullpen was a huge liability. Fortunately, the Nats didn’t have to rely on their bullpen extensively until Game 4. In Game 1, the Nats handed their pen a 5-2 lead, then saw it dwindle down to a 1-run lead before Sean Doolitttle finally closed it out. In Game 2, it didn’t matter because the Nats handed their bullpen a huge 8-2 lead, and in Game 3, the Nats pen delivered 3.2 shutout innings of 1 hit ball after the Astros had already taken a 4-1 lead. On Sunday, Daniel Hudson gave up 3 runs on 4 hits in 1.2 innings, but is was already 4-1 HTN, and with the way Cole was pitching, it was probably already over. In the Wild Card Game, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg (out of the pen and Daniel Hudson recorded all 27 outs, with 15 from Scherzer, 9 from Strasburg, and3 from Hudson. In the NLDS, the Nats needed 135 outs. They got 102 of them from Scherzer, Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Sean Doolittle and Hudson. In the NLCS, the Nats needed 108 outs and 76 came from those five pitchers, although they got a surprisingly great start from Anibal Sanchez and Tanner Rainey contributed a little out of the bullpen. It’s quite clear that Nat’s manager Dave Martinez has very little faith in most of his bullpen options, and that’s understandable. As a result Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Doollitle and Hudson have been asked to carry the load again in this series. Corbin was again used out of the pen for an inning in Game 1, and Doolittle got it done in the 9th in Game 2, but I still believe that at some point, the Nats bullpen is going to have to get outs with a game on the line from guys like Hunter Strickland, Wander Suero, and Rainey, and that could be problematic.
The Astros bullpen is solid, but top-heavy. Their late inning relief trio of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressley, and Will Harris were excellent during the regular season, although Pressley did struggle in Game 1 of the ALDS and again in Game 2 of this series. Osuna also gave up that 2-run blast in the 9th inning of Game 6 in the ALCS, before Altuve saved his ass with a 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning. In Game 4, five relievers combined to give up 2 hits and 0 runs in relief of Greinke and preserve HTN’s win. Un Game 5, the Astros again used 5 relievers, giving up just 1 run in 2 hits and 5 walks over their final 4 innings. In game 6 Joe Smith and Pressley each contributed a scoreless inning mopping up after Cole had left the game. The long ball has been a problem for several Astro relievers, including the aforementioned Osuna at times. Chris Devenski was left off of the roster in the ALCS, due in large part to his HR issues. Josh James has shown a propensity for giving up the long ball and issuing walks. Brad Peacock struggled badly in his 11 relief innings in the ALDS. Smith has pitched well, but the Astros lack matchup lefties. They only have Wade Miley, Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez to use against leftues. Fortunately, the Nats have just two left-handed batters in the regular lineup, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto, so that hasn’t really been an issue .
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and tonight that’s a really close call.
After pitching 3 solid innings in relief of Max Scherzer in the Nats 4-3 wild card win against the Brewers in the WC game, Stephen Strasbutg threw a gem against the Dodgers in LA in Game 2 of this series,. Despite pitching on just two days rest, Strasburg gave up just 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings, with 10 Ks the Nats 4-2 win to even up the series at 1-1. Strasburg returned to start the decisive Game 5 in LA. He wasn’t as dominant, giving up 3 runs 3 runs on 6 hits (2 HRs) and a walk over 6 innings, with 7 Ks in the Nats dramatic 7-3 extra inning win to advance to the NLCS. In Game 3 of the NLCS Strasburg limited the Cardinals to just 1 run (unearned) on on 7 hits over 7 innings, with 12 Ks in the Nats 8-1 win. In his most recent start in Game 2 of this series, Strasburg got off to arough start giving up3 1st inning hits, including a 2-run HR, before settling down. He went 6 innings giving up just the 2 1st inning runs on 7 hits and 1 walk over 6 innings with 7 Ks. That’s a total of 7 postseason runs allowed (6 earned) on 25 hits and 2 walks over 28 innings with 40 Ks! Over the course of the regular season, Strasburg delivered an 18-6 record with 24 good starts in his 33 outings, and just 9 poor ones, and 3 of those poor starts were in early April. Strasburg’s WHIP was very good, as was his ERA, and his ERA metrics were even a little better than his ERA. Strasburg’s K rate was elite, and he combined it with a better than 50% GB rate. He did give up 56 walks in his 209 innings, but his BB/K was good, as was his very low hard contact rate.
Justin Verlander faced the Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS and absolutely dominated in the Astros 6-2 win, giving up 0 runs, 1 hit and 3 walks over 7 innings with 8 Ks. Then, pitching on just 3 days rest, he struggled against the Rays in Game 4 in TB, giving up up 4 runs on 7 hits (2 HRs) and 3 walks in just 3.2 innings. However, on normal rest in Game 2 of the ALCS, against the potent Yankees, Verlander gave up just 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks over 6.2 innings, with 7 Ks in the Astros 3-2 win. He returned to start Game 5, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs) over 7 innings with 9 Ks in the Astros 4-1 loss. In his Game 2 starting in this series, Verlander struggled early on giving up 2 quick run on a walk, sinble and double to the first 3 batters that he faced, before settling down. He breezed through the next 5 innings, but a solo HR and a walk ended Verhander’s evening without getting a single out in the 7th. He finished with 4 runs allowed on 7 hits and 3 walks over 6 innings with 5 Ks. In his 5 postseason starts, Verlander has given up 14 runs on 125 hits (6 HRs) and 11 walks over 30.1 innings, with 34 Ks. At 36, Verlander continued to amaze, performing at an elite level again this season. He finished the season 21-6, with 28 good starts in his 34 outings, including his 3rd career no-no. That’s compared to just 6 poor ones, and even in those 6 poor starts, Verlander still never gave up more than 4 earned runs, so how bad was that? Verlander’s only real flaw this season was that he was HR prone. He gave up 36 in the regular season, and 6 more in the postseason. Verlander had a stellar WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics, while a little higher than his ERA, were still really good. It was true that his BABIP and strand rate were both the best in baseball, and those numbers were so ridiculously good that it’s unbelievable that Verlander was able to sustain them. I would expect a strong outing from Verlander tonight, as the Astros look to end this series.
I really didn’t expect the Astros to lose both of the first two games in HTN. Granted that in Game 2,the Nats had some incredible batted ball, especially in that decisive 7th inning. As for Games 3 4, and 5, I didn’t really expect the Astros to win all three in WASG, but that’s exactly what happened, as the Nats who seemingly could do no wrong in the first two game, did very little right in the last three. The numbers say that the Astros have the better offense, but not by a lot, and these two pitching staffs have done a very good job of neutralizing these two dangerous offenses. I also think that the Astros have the deeper and stronger bullpen. That didn’t hurt the Nats through the first 3 games, but that all changed in Game 4. Scherzer and Strasburg were the Nats answer to the Astros Cole and Verlander. They made the Nats one of the very few teams that could actually match up with the Astros. Scherzer’s injury and late scratch on Sunday had to be devastating to the Nats. As for tonight’s starting pitchers, this will be a rematch of game 2. In that one, these two elite pitchers each one somehow managed to give up 2 first inning runs (killing my 1st 5 under). Then they then both proceed to reel off 5 shutout innings. It was still 2-2 after 6. I expect that both will pitch well tonight, and I think that this game gets decided late by the bullpens and the offenses. The Astros are the better team here with the better bullpen and the better offense.
I also think that the Astros have the better manager. I have no way to quantify this, but I believe that AJ Finch is a clearly better manager than Dave Martinez and I believe some managerial decisions could impact this game and series, such as Martinez’s decision to use Corbin out of the pen 4 times in these playoffs..
When the Astros needed to win at least two games in WASH, after losing two in HTN, they won all three. I’m not sure that the Nats can do the same, but with Strasburg on the hill, it wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Nats manage hang in this game. However, it also wouldn’t surprise me if Verlander also tosses a gem tonight. I still think that the Astros will win this series. I’ve been on then all along and with the slightly better offense and much better bullpen, I’m not about to jump ship now. I’m betting that they end this series tonight..
Pick – HTN ML (-170 for 2 units)