For what it’s worth I got it right again last night. In the first two games of this World Series, I absolutely sucked, but things have definitely turned around. I was on the Astros again, granted without a lot of conviction, but they grabbed a 4-0 lead over Patrick Corbin, and Alex Bregman’s grand salami put the finishing touch on the Astros 8-1 win in WASH tying this series at 2 games apiece. Unfortunately, I only put 1 unit on the Astros and picked up just 1.07 units. That leaves me -4.17 units for this series,+4.68 units for the postseason, and +232.80 units for the season.
It was ironic that in this series, with guys like Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg and Verlander, it was 24 year old rookie Jose Urquidy who ended up throwing the gem. Urquidy, in just his 8th MLB start, shut out the Nats on just 2 hits over 5 innings, with 4 Ks. The Astros again used 5 relievers to finish the game. The Astros jumped on Patrick Corbin for 2 qick 1st inning runs on 4 straight singles. It could have been much worse, but Corbin got Chirinos to ground into an inning ending double play to end the inning. The Astros padded their lead in the 4th on a 2-run blast, ironically by Chirinos. I can’t prove this but I believe that Corbin’s struggles are at least partly attributable to Corbin’s earlier use oout of the Nats pen. Pitchers are creatures of habit, and I trhink Corbin;s routine was thrown out of sync by manger Dave Martinez.
Yesterday, I did say that I thought that last night’s Game 4 would be pivotal. The Astros chose to go with a basically untested rookie who has just 7 MLB starts under his belt, rather than bring back ace Gerrit Cole on short rest. I thought that was ia smart decision. Now this series is tied with two of the final three games in HTN, and with Cole. Verlander and Greinke all going on normal rest. I really like their chances now, and I really like my 2 unit bet on the Astros to win this series at +120.
As for what I think of tonight’s game, much of this write up will be repetitive because the offenses and bullpens haven’t changed. I just updated a few stats after last night game. My apologies, in advance.
HTN @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
8:07
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
HTN
|
Cole - R
|
(27/33)
|
(5/33)
|
0.89
|
2.59
|
2.64
|
2.62
|
13.82
|
2.03
|
1.23
|
0.185
|
0.275
|
83.3%
|
0.15
|
33.9%
|
40.3%
|
WASH
|
Scherzer - R
|
(5/9)
|
(1/9)
|
1.46
|
3.02
|
3.86
|
5.24
|
7.66
|
4.33
|
0.60
|
0.256
|
0.310
|
82,2%
|
0.58
|
30.3%
|
45.4%
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.68
|
3
|
196.6
|
1
|
0.355
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.221
|
3
|
10.1%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-9.5
|
26
|
WASH
|
5.38
|
6
|
29.0
|
7
|
0.336
|
6
|
103
|
8
|
0.190
|
11
|
9.3%
|
8
|
20.9%
|
4
|
36.1%
|
24
|
3.7
|
12
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: At the start of June The Nats were just 24-33. They weren’t even a .500 team until June 27, yet they still managed to win 93 regular season games. They played .657 ball over their last 105 games. That was an impressive turnaround, but still not enough to catch the Braves in the NL East. That meant that the Nats had to host the Brewers in a Wild Card game just to get into the NLDS, where they upset the heavily favored Dodgers 3 games to 2. The narrative coming out of that series was that the Dodgers blew it, and that’s not necessarily wrong. However, let’s not forget that the Nats still had to actually win it. They won despite having to play and win a wild card game just to get there, and despite two cross-country flights. They also won two games at Dodger Stadium, where the Dodgers went 59-22 during the regular season. The Nats then proceeded to sweep the Cardinals, and take Games 1 and 2 on the road, against the heavily favored Astros, before losing Games 3 and 4 at home, making them 10-4 in 14 postseason games.
The Astros have, for the most part, been dominant, winning their second AL pennant in three years. They won 107 regular season games to set a franchise record. It was the 3rd straight season in which they won at least 100 games, despite a myriad of injuries. Alex Bregman was their only player to play in more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel all played over 140. However, George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa only played 75 games, and Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until midseason. The Astros also lost SPs Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and SP Lance McCullers to injury. None of it seemed to matter. The A’s provided little more than token resistance in the AL West, and the Astros rolled into the postseason. They were pushed to the limit by the pesky Rays in a tough 5-game ALDS, but then polished off the potent Yankees in 6 games despite a stunning Game 1 loss in HTN. Now, they’ve managed to even this series up despite losing the first two games at home.
The Nats can hit and they’ve shown flashes in this series. Their offense was not as good as the Astros during the regular season, but in this series they’ve score 19 runs (16 earned), on 36 hits and 16 walks in 142 ABs, with 4 HRs and 134 Ks. The Nats posted a .350 wOBA in the second half of the season along with a 113 wRC+. Only the Astros and Yankees had better wOBAs. However, the Nats were also somewhat lucky. They benefitted greatly from a .316 BABIP over the second half, which tied with the Rockies for the highest in the league. In othe words, they were also lucky on batted balls in play. Look no further than that decisive 7th inning in Game 2.
The Astros had the best offense in baseball during the regular season. However, they’ve now scored 19 runs in this series on 43 hits and 17 walks in 149 ABs, with 6 HRs and 32 Ks. The Astros ranked 3rd in runs per game during the regular season, while the Nats ranked 6th . They ranked 1st in ORAA, wOBA, and wRC+, while the Nats ranked 6th, 6th and 8th respectively. The Astros ranked 3rd in ISO and HRs, and the Nats ranked 11th and 13th respectively. The Astros walked 0.8% more and struck out 2.7% less. However, the Astros have struggled with RISP going 5 for 13 last night and 12 for 40 in this series, after going just 5-for-44 in the ALCS. The Nats haven’t fared any better going 1 for 9 last night and just 8 for 38 in this series. Both pitching staff haves done a good job of shutting down the other team’s offense. Never underestimate how far good pitching can take you.
Except for base running, the Astros did everything else a little bit better than the Nats in the regular season. Even when adjusted for non-pitcher offensive stats, the Astros had 455 more plate appearances, hit 58 more HRs, posted a 1.8% lower K rate, a 0.4% higher walk rate, a 2 point higher BA, a 1 point higher on-base percentage, a 26 point higher SLG, a 9 point higher wOBA, and a 15 point higher wRC+. Of course, in a small 7-game sample size, stats don’t mean as much. Anything can happen, and since both of these teams make a lot of contact, batted ball luck played a big part in Game 2 and could impact this series even more in the remaining games. Now, the Astros have to play without a DH for the next two games in WASH. It wasn’t a factor last night, but could still be a factor because AL teams really do miss the DH when they have to play without one. In the Astros’ case, that means either playing Yordan Alvarez in the OF (a defensive liabi.ity) or just using him as a pinch hit in high leverage situations. Last night he pinch hit. Either way, it’s not a positive for a team already struggling.
Since both pitching staffs are predominantly right-handed, it’s also important to consider how these offenses fared against right handed pitchers. The Astros ranked 1st against RHP with a .351 wOBA, They also had the best wRC+ at 123. The Nats were 8th with a .332 wOBA and 11th with a 101 wRC+.
Another factor to consider is the capacity to make adjustments. The Astros would seem to have that edge. They were 3rd in OPS against a starting pitcher for a 3rd time at .907. The Nats, on the other hand, ranked 16th at .802. Astros pitchers allowed the lowest OPS at .642 with a pitcher facing a batter for the 3rd time. The Nats allowed the fourth-lowest OPS at .732. The Nationals had a 2.68 K/BB ratio in those plate appearances, while the Astros had a 5.41 K/BB, easily the best in baseball. The Astros rotation would appear to be a little better when it comes to turning the lineup over a 3rd time, but they weren’t facing pitchers of the caliber of Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin. Strasburg allowed a .590 OPS in that split. Scherzer a .619, and Corbin a .620. It was Anibal Sanchez’s .923 that skewed the numbers, along with that of the other non-primary Nats starters.
Bullpens are usually even more important in the playoffs. As for these two, this is the one area where I thought that the Astros would have a significant edge, but until last night it hasn’t mattered. Hoever, in the 7th unning Tanner Rainey’s two walks were follow and single and then a grand Slam HR off Fernando Rodney. The Nats pen gave up 4 runs on 6 hit and 5 walks in the final 4 innings.
During the regular season, the Nats bullpen was a huge liability. Fortunately, the Nats hadn’t had to rely on their bullpen extensively until last night. I Game 1, the Nats handed their pen a 5-2 lead, then saw it dwindle down to a 1-run lead before Sean Doolitttle finally closed it out. In Game 2, it didn’t matter because the Nats handed their bullpen a huge 8-2 lead, and in Game 3, the Nats pen delivered 3.2 shutout innings of 1 hit ball after the Astros had already taken a 4-1 lead. In the Wild Card Game, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg (out of the pen and Daniel Hudson recorded all 27 outs, with 15 from Scherzer, 9 from Strasburg, and3 from Hudson. In the NLDS, the Nats needed 135 outs. They got 102 of them from Scherzer, Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Sean Doolittle and Hudson. In the NLCS, the Nats needed 108 outs and 76 came from those five pitchers, although they got a surprisingly great start from Anibal Sanchez and Tanner Rainey contributed a little out of the bullpen. It’s quite clear that Nat’s manager Dave has very little faith in most of his bullpen options, and that’s understandable. As a result Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Doollitle and Hudson will be asked to carry the load again in this series. Corbin was again used out of the pen for an inning in Game 1, and Doolittle got it done in the 9th in Game 2, but I still believe that at some point, the Nats bullpen is going to have to get outs with a game on the line from guys like Hunter Strickland, Wander Suero, and Rainey, and that could be problematic. It certainly was last night.
The Astros bullpen is solid, but top-heavy. Their late inning relief trio of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressley, and Will Harris were excellent during the regular season, although Pressley did struggle in Game 1 of the ALDS and again in Game 2. Osuna also gave up that 2-run blast in the 9th inning of Game 6 in the ALCS, before Altuve saved his ass with a 2-run HR in the bottom of the inning. On Friday night, five relievers combined to give up 2 hits and 0 runs in relief of Greinke and preserve HTN’s win. Last night the Astros again used 5 relievers, giving up just 1 run in 2 hits and 5 walks over thew final 4 innings. The long ball has been a problem for several Astro relievers, including the aforementioned Osuna at times. Chris Devenski was left off of the roster in the ALCS, due in large part to his HR issues. Josh James has shown a propensity for giving up the long ball and issuing walks. Brad Peacock struggled badly in his 11 relief innings in the ALDS. Joe Smith has pitched well, but the Astros lack matchup lefties. They only have Wade Miley, Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez to use against leftues. Fortunately, the Nats have just two left-handed batters in the regular lineup, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto. They also have Matt Adams, Asdrubal Cabrera (S), and Gerardo Parra as bench lefties or as mix and match starters.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and tonight I give the Astros a small edge there.
Coming into this series, Gerrit Cole only had 2 poor starts since May 22. Now,after his less than stellar effort in Game 1, it’s 3. He went 7 innings, but gave up 5 runs on 8 hits and a walk, striking out just 6. Before that, Cole had a dominant outing in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees, giving up 0 runs on 4 hits and 5 walks over 7 innings, with 7 Ks in the Astros 3-1 win. In Game 5 of the ALDS against the Rays, Cole gave up 1 run (a solo HR) on 2 hits and 2 walks over 8 innings, with 10 Ks in the Astros 6-1 series clinching win. In Game 2 of that series, Cole shut out the Rays on 4 hits and 1 walk over 7.2 innings, with 15 Ks in the Astros 3-1 win. I expect that he bounces back tonight. Cole is a strong favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. He had 27 good starts in his 33 regular season outings, and just 5 poor ones. He had just 2 poor starts after May 22! Cole had a stellar sub 1.00 WHIP and an excellent ERA. His ERA metrics were absolutely consistent with his stellar ERA, and Cole also led the majors with 326 Ks in his 212.1 innings, with only 48 walks, giving him a great 0.15 BB/K. Cole is elite and he’s had a career season. Despite his struggles in Game 1, I’m not willing to bet against him, even with Max Scherzer on the other side.
Lathe this afternoon, Nats manager Dave Martinez announced that listed starting pitcher Max Scherzer was scratched from tonight’s start against the Astros because of spasms in his upper right trapezius. Righty Joe Ross will make the start instead of Scherzer. That’s a huge blow to WASH’s chances tonight. Ross has made 27 appearnaces this season for the Nats, including 9 starts. He has delivered 5 good starts and just 1 poor one. In those 9 starts, Ross has given up just 15 runs on 43 hits and 22 walks in 44.2 innings, with 38 Ks. Ross has basically pitched well, but there are some troubling signs. The 22 walks in under 45 innings is a big one and a big reason why Ross’ WHIP is so very high. It also explains why Ross’ ERA metrics are all considerably higher than his ERA.
I really didn’t expect the Astros to lose both of the first two games in HTN. When I dug deep into Game 2, I still couldn’t believe the batted ball luck that the Nats had in that 7th inning. As for Games 3 and 4, while the Nats seemingly could do no wrong in the first two game, they did very little right in the last two. It has all evened out. The numbers say that the Astros have the better offense, but not by a lot, and these two pitching staffs have done a very good job of neutralizing these two dangerous offenses. I also think that the Astros have the deeper and stronger bullpen. However, the used five pitchers to preserves Friday night’s win in a game they needed like blood. They used 5 again last night. That could take it’s toll. As for the Nats, their bullpen hadn’t hurt them sthrough the first 3 games, but that all changed last night. Scherzer and Strasburg are the Nats answer to the Astros Cole and Verlander. They makes the Nats one of the very few teams that can actually match up with the Astros. As for tonight’s starting pitchers, this iwas supposed to be arematch of game 1, but noe that Scherzer’s been scratched, the Astros have a huge edge. I expect Cole will pitch much better tonight, especially off a rare poor start. The Astros are the better team with the better bullpen and the much better starting pitcher.
I also think that the Astros have the better manager. I have no way to quantify this, up but I believe that AJ Finch is a better manager than Dave Martinez and some managerial decisions could impact this series, like Martinez’s decision to use Corbin out of the pen 4 times in these playoffs..
The Astros needed last night’s game and got it. I think that they’ll win this series. I I don’t see Ross doing what Unquidy did last night. Unfortunately, with Scherzer out this line has skyrocketed.
Pick – HTN ML (-210 for 10 units)