For what it’s worth on Thursday night I was pretty much on my own with my Astros pick. Everyone else seemed to be on the Yanks. Last night I was on the Astros again, but this time it seemed like everyone agreed with me. I should have known that I might be in trouble.
It was a weird game to start with. The two teams combined for five 1st inning runs, but never scored again. A lot of things had to go right for the Yankees to win that game. Individually, none of them was all that unlikely, but collectively, they all had to happen. First, Justin Verlander had to give up a couple of dingers. No real suprise there, Verlander had given up 36 HRs in the regular season and 3 more in the postseason. That’s just Verlander. Still, it was the first time in his career that Verlander had given up that many runs in any inning in the postseason, as well as the first time he had given that many runs up in an inning since Aug. 11, 2014, against the Padres. Having it happen in the 1st inning of an elimination game was definitely not what I expected. Second, James Paxton had to be “on”. That wasn’t all that surprising either. We already knew that the Astros struggle against high velocity pitching. The Astros ranked just 18th (.318) in wOBA against high velocityp[itchers. Paxton has that kind of stuff. He had 5 starts this season in which he notched double digit Ks. Third, the two bullpens had to pitch well, and they did. Again, that wasn’t all that surprising either. These are two of the best bullpens in baseball. That’s one of the reasons that these two teams are still playing deep into October. Even when it was 4-1 NY after the 1st inning, I still expected the Astros to come back. They’ve done it many time before, but we’ve also seen them get shut down from time to time, most recently in Games 2 and 3 of the ALDS against the Rays. I got it wrong, but I’d make the wager again. That left me -2 units for the day, +7.24 units for the postseason, and +240.41 units for the season.
Tonight, we have Game 6 as the series moves back to HTN, without a travel day off. The Astros now lead the series 3 games to 2. Here’s what I think about the game.
HTN @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – Edge - NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.68
|
3
|
196.6
|
1
|
0.355
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.221
|
3
|
10.1%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-9.5
|
26
|
NYY
|
5.82
|
1
|
130.8
|
2
|
0.346
|
3
|
117
|
2
|
0.222
|
2
|
9.1%
|
11
|
23.0%
|
12
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-0.8
|
15
|
Edge – HTN close
Conclusion: The Yankees took the first game 1of this series 7-0 behind a surprisingly effective Masahiro Tanaka. The Astros bounced back to win the second game 3-2 in the 11th on a Carlos Correa HR off JA Happ. The Astros also took the third game 4-1 in NY behind a dominating performance by Gerrit Cole, and pushed the Yanks to the brink with an 8-3 win Thursday night. The Yanks bounced back last night behind a dominating performance by James Paxton and the Yanks pen, along with a couple of timely 1st inning HRs off HTN’s Justin Verlander. .
After and tough 5-game ALDS against the pesky Rays, and a stunning 7-0 Game 1 loss to the Yankess at Minute Maid, the Astros have rebounded big time and again look like the best team in baseball. They’re in the ALCS for the 3rd straight season, despite a myriad of regular season injuries. Alex Bregman was their only player to play in more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel all played over 140. However, George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa only played 75 games, and Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until midseason. The Astros also lost SPs Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and SP Lance McCullers to injury. None of it mattered as the Astros just rolled on winning 107 games to set a franchise record. It was the 3rd straight season in which they won at least 100 games. That’s pretty damned impressive. The Astros are trying to win their second AL pennant in three years. They won Game 1 in the ALCS against the Red Sox last season, but then lost four straight and watched the Red Sox win the championship that they had won in 2017.
Despite a myriad of injuries of their own, the Yankees still won 103 games, winning the AL East by 7 games. This is the first time since 2009-10 that the Yankees have made back-to-back ALCS appearances. They have not made a World Series appearance since 2009. The Yanks disposed of the Twins quickly and efficiently, in three neat and tidy games by a combined score of 21-87, to advance to the ALCS, but now find themselves on the brink of elimination.
It hasn’t shown so far in this series, but offensively, both of these teams are loaded, but in this series, the Yanks have scored just 17 runs, and the Astros just 16. Since scoring 7 runs in Game 1, the Yankee offense has seemed incapable of buying a hit with runners in scoring position. Even their 4 runs in last night’s win saw them get just 2 at-bats with runners in scoring position. They are just 1-for-16 with RISP in their last three games. However, for all the talk about the Yanks' problems with RISP in this series, the Astros haven’t fared any better. They were 0-for-4 with RISP last night and just 4-for-37 in those situations in this series. Of course that could all change very fast. The Yanks led the league in runs per game during the regular season, and the Astros ranked 2nd. The Astros ranked 1st in ORAA, wOBA, and wRC+, and the Yanks ranked 2nd. The Yanks ranked 2nd in ISO and HRs, and the Astros ranked 3rd. The Astros did walk 1% more and strike out 4.8% less, so I guess we can give them a small edge for that, but the truth is that offensively, there’s not much that separates these two teams.
Both of these teams have good bullpens, and that was evident last night, but this is the one area where I thought that the Yanks might have an edge.
The Astros bullpen is solid, but more top-heavy than the Yanks. In this series, the Astros pen has given up 7 runs on 10 hits and 7 walks over 15 innings, with 19 Ks. Their late inning relief trio of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressley, and Will Harris were excellent during the regular season, although Pressley did struggle in Game 1 of the ALDS. The long ball was also a problem for several Astro relievers, including Osuna at times. Chris Devenski was left off of the roster, due in large part to his HR issues. Josh James showed his propensity for giving up the long ball and issuing walks again last night. Brad Peacock struggled badly in his 11 relief innings. in the ALDS. Joe Biagini, and Joe Smith have skills, but the Astros lack matchup lefties. They only have Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez to use against leftues. Fortunately, the Yanks are predominantly right handed.
The Yankees have a very strong bullpen. Four Yankees relievers ranked in the top 35 in FIP among 158 qualified relievers. A fifth, Zach Britton didn’t, but he had an ERA under 2.00. The Yanks pen worked 13.1 innings against the Twins and allowed just 3 runs. However their 7 walks could’ve been problematic, but their 16 Ks neutralized the walks. In this series, the Yanks pen has given up 8 runs on 12 hits and 9 walks in 16.1 innings, with 23 Ks. So far in the postseason, the Yanks have gotten more outs from their relievers than they did from their starters, and that trend may very well continue because manager Aaron Boone almost never allows his starters to see the middle of the other team’s order a third time. The Yanks ranked 26th in plate appearances when a starter faced a batter for the 3rd time. As a result, the Yanks pen is probably going to be pushed to its limits in this series, but playing just three games against the Twins at least left the Yankees pen in good shape coming into this series. The Yanks have a lot of multi-inning options like Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, and JA Happ. We could also see the Yanks use an opener at some point because Paxton, Tanaka and Severino aren’t likely to pitch on three days’ rest. The Yanks pen might have to get at least 25 outs if this series goes seven games, between shaky starters leaving early and a potential opener game.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that’s where I give the Astros a clear edge.
Chad Green has made 3 appearances out of the bullpen in this series. He tossed 2 perfect innings in relief of James Paxton in Game 2, striking out 2. He tossed a perfect 0.2 innings in relief of Luis Severino in Game 2, but was touched up for 2 runs on 2 hits (1HR) in relief of Masahiro Tanaka in Game 4. Green made 15 regular season starts as an opener for the Yanks and has not gone more than 2 innings in any of them. In those 15 outings, Green has given up 9 runs (8 earned) on 18 hits (4 HRs) and 3 walks over 19.1 innings, along with 32 Ks. The 32.3 K/BB ratio is impressive. Green brings pure heat to the table, and as mentioned earlier, the Astros struggle with high velocity pitchers.
Brad Peacock made his first appearance in this series last night tossing 1 perfect inning. He only threw 8 pitches (7 strikes) with 1 K. Peacock started 15 games for the Astros during the regular season, with 9 good starts, 4 poor ones, and 2 mediocre ones. In those 15 starts, Peacock gave up 38 runs on 72 hits and 23 walks over 80.2 innings, with 82 Ks. His WHIP was solid and his ERA was mediocre, as were his ERA metrics. Peacock struck out a batter per inning, and has been adequate but far from elite. Peacock’s fastball-slider-changeup mix looked very good last night in retiring Brett Gardner the top two hitters in the Yankees' lineup, DJ Lemathieu and Aaron Judge , but that might be a mixed blessing. They will likely get another shot at him tonight and will probably have a better idea of what to expect. Peacock probably has an experience edge since he finished the final 3.2 innings of Game 3 in the 2017 World Series. He also could potentially go deeper.
The offenses are both potent and dangerous. The Astros do rank slightly higher in most categories, but by very slim margins. Both bullpens are good, but, as mentioned, I give the Yanks an edge there because of their stronger middle relief corps, and that could be a bigger factor in what’s shaping up as a bullpen game tonight. As for the two starting pitchers, I don’t expect either to be around all that long. The key for them is to keep things close early.
The Yanks desperately needed last night’s game just to stay alive, and they got it. They are still down 3 games to 2, and facing elimination if they lose. The Astros won; t be under nearly as much pressure. They know that they are guaranteed a game 7, even if they lose, and that they have ace Gerrit Cole ready to go if there is a game 7. Playing in Minute Maid Park should help the Astros play loose. They’ve gone 14-5 in 19 playoff games at home since 2017. I still don’t see the Yanks winning this series and I think there’s a decent chance that the Astros end it tonight, at home. However, everything is so damned close, that I’m tempted to pass on this game, but I do have an opinion. After getting completely shut down last night, I think that the Astros score enough runs tonight to put this series away. The price is reasonable and that’s how I’m betting it.
Pick – HTN ML (-124 for 2 units)