For what it’s worth, it sure seemed like I was on my own little island yesterday with my Astros pick. Everyone else seemed to be on the Yanks, and why not? Greinke hadn’t looked very good in either of his two postseason starts and Tanaka looked great in his. Could the Yankees really lose three in a row? Well, they did just that.
I wasn’t all that confident about the Astros. That’s not all that surprising in the postseason when game are closer and the edges are much smaller. However, I did like the Astros enough to make a normal sized wager (2 units) on them, especially and a nice dog price. Mostly I liked then because I expected both pitchers to regress/progress to the regular season norms. As it turned out, the Astros got a couple of big HRs from George Springer and Carlos Correa, and a couple of big Ks from Ryan Pressley in the 5th when the Yanks loaded the bases with just one out. That left me +2.36 units for the day, +9.24 units for the postseason, and +242.41 units for the season.
Tonight, we have Game 5 of the ALCS series between the Astros and the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Astros now lead the series 3 games to 1. Here’s what I think about the game.
HTN @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
7:08
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
HTN
|
Verlander - R
|
(28/34)
|
(6/34)
|
0.80
|
2.58
|
3.27
|
2.95
|
12.11
|
1.70
|
1.45
|
0.171
|
0.218
|
88.4%
|
0.14
|
41.8%
|
35.9%
|
NYY
|
Paxton - L
|
(18/29)
|
(9/29)
|
1.28
|
3.82
|
3.86
|
3.93
|
11.11
|
3.29
|
1.37
|
0.240
|
0.313
|
76.2%
|
0.30
|
37.7%
|
38.4%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – Edge - NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.68
|
3
|
196.6
|
1
|
0.355
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.221
|
3
|
10.1%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-9.5
|
26
|
NYY
|
5.82
|
1
|
130.8
|
2
|
0.346
|
3
|
117
|
2
|
0.222
|
2
|
9.1%
|
11
|
23.0%
|
12
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-0.8
|
15
|
Edge – HTN close
Conclusion: The Yankees took the first game 1of this series 7-0 behind a surprisingly effective Masahiro Tanaka. The Astros bounced back to win the second game 3-2 in the 11th on a Carlos Correa HR off JA Happ. The Astros also took the third game 4-1 in NY behind a dominating performance by Gerrit Cole, and pushed the Yanks to the brink with an 8-3 win last night..
After and tough 5-game ALDS against the pesky Rays, and a stunning 7-0 Game 1 loss to the Yankess at Minute Maid, the Astros have rebounded big time and again look like the best team in baseball. They’re in the ALCS for the 3rd straight season, despite a myriad of regular season injuries. Alex Bregman was their only player to play in more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel all played over 140. However, George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa only played 75 games, and Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until midseason. The Astros also lost SPs Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and SP Lance McCullers to injury. None of it mattered as the Astros just rolled on winning 107 games to set a franchise record. It was the 3rd straight season in which they won at least 100 games. That’s pretty damned impressive. The Astros are trying to win their second AL pennant in three years. They won Game 1 in the ALCS against the Red Sox last season, but then lost four straight and watched the Red Sox win the championship that they had won in 2017.
Despite a myriad of injuries of their own, the Yankees still won 103 games, winning the AL East by 7 games. This is the first time since 2009-10 that the Yankees have made back-to-back ALCS appearances. They have not made a World Series appearance since 2009. The Yanks disposed of the Twins quickly and efficiently, in three neat and tidy games by a combined score of 21-87, to advance to the ALCS, but now find themselves on the brink of elimination.
Offensively, both of these teams are loaded, but in this series the Astros scored just 7 runs in the first 3 games before putting up 8 last night. By contrast, the Yanks put up 7 in Game 1, but just 6 in the last 3 games. The Yanks led the league in runs per game during the regular season, the Astros ranked 2nd. The Astros ranked 1st in ORAA, wOBA, and wRC+, the Yanks ranked 2nd. The Yanks ranked 2nd in ISO and HRs, the Astros ranked 3rd. The Astros did walk 1% more and strike out 4.8% less, so I guess we can give them a small edge for that, but the truth is that offensively, there’s not much that separates these two teams.
Both of these teams have good bullpens, but this is the one area where I thought that the Yanks might have an edge.
The Astros bullpen is solid, but more top-heavy than the Yanks. In this series, the Astros pen has given up 7 runs on 10 hits and 7walks over 14 innings, with 18 Ks. Their late inning relief trio of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressley, and Will Harris were excellent during the regular season, although Pressley did struggle in game 1 of the ALDS. However, If, for some reason, Cole, Verlander or Greinke don’t go deep, the Astros could have some middle relief issues, like they had in Game 3. The long ball was also a problem for several Astro relievers, including Osuna at times. Chris Devenski was left off of the roster, due in large part to his HR issues. Josh James showed his propensity for giving up the long ball and issuing walks again last night. Brad Peacock struggled badly in his 11 relief innings. in the ALDS. Joe Biagini, and Joe Smith have skills, but the Astros lack matchup lefties. They only have Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez to use against leftues. Fortunately, the Yanks are predominantly right handed.
The Yankees have a very strong bullpen. Four Yankees relievers ranked in the top 35 in FIP among 158 qualified relievers. A fifth, Zach Britton didn’t, but he had an ERA under 2.00. The Yanks pen worked 13.1 innings against the Twins and allowed just 3 runs. However their 7 walks could’ve been problematic, but their 16 Ks neutralized the walks. In this series, the Yanks pen has given up 8 runs on 11 hits and 8 walks in 13.1 innings, with 20 Ks. So far in the postseason, they have gotten more outs from their relievers than they did from their starters. That trend may very well continue because manager Aaron Boone almost never allows his starters to see the middle of the other team’s order a third time. The Yanks ranked 26th in plate appearances in which a starter faced a batter for the 3rd time. As a result, the Yanks pen is going to be pushed to its limits in this series, but playing just three games against the Twins at least left the Yankees pen in good shape coming into this series. The Yanks have a lot of multi-inning options like Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, JA Happ, and CC Sabathia. We could also see the Yanks use an opener at some point because Paxton, Tanaka and Severino aren’t likely to pitch on three days’ rest. The Yanks pen might have to get at least 25 outs if this series goes seven games, between shaky starters leaving early and a potential opener game.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that’s where I give the Astros a clear edge.
Justin Verlander faced the Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS and absolutely dominated in the Astros 6-2 win, giving up 0 runs, 1 hit and 3 walks over 7 innings with 8 Ks. Then, pitching on just 3 days rest, he struggled against the Rays in Game 4 in TB, giving up up 4 runs on 7 hits (2 HRs) and 3 walks in just 3.2 innings. However on normal rest in Game 2 of the ALCS, Vergave up just 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks over 6.2 innings, with 7 Ks. At 36, Verlander continued to amaze, performing at an elite level again this season. He finished the season 21-6, with 28 good starts in his 34 outings, including his 3rd career no-no. That’s compared to just 6 poor ones, and even in those 6 poor starts, Verlander still never gave up more than 4 earned runs, so how bad was that? Verlander’s only real flaw this season was that he was HR prone. He gave up 36 in the regular season, and 3 more in the postseason. Verlander had a stellar WHIP and ERA. His ERA metrics, while a little higher than his ERA, were still really good. It was true that his BABIP and strand rate were both the best in baseball, and those numbers were so ridiculously good that it’s unbelievable that Verlander was able to sustain them. I would expect a strong outing from Verlander tonight, as the Astros look to close this series.
James Paxton struggled in his one ALD start against the Twins, giving up giving up 3 runs on 5 hits (2 HRS) and a walk in just 4.2 innings. Paxton next started Game 2 of this series against the Astros. He gave up 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks, but only lasted 2.1 innings, getting pulled at the first sign of trouble. Early in the season, Paxton struggled to find any consistency, but once he was fully healthy, he pitched as well as he had all season. Paxton finished 15-6 with 18 good starts in his 29 regular season outings, including 9 of his last 11. That compared to 9 poor ones. Paxton’s WHIP was good and so was his ERA, and both were trending in the right direction. His ERA metrics were also consistent with his ERA, and that was a positive sign as well. Paxton’s K rate was elite, but his 55 walks in just under 151 innings was on the high high. Other than his K rate, Paxton’s other positives were a BABIP that was still higher than his career rate. That points to some bad luck. Paxton was probably the Yanks best starting pitcher this season.
The offenses are both potent, but the Astros do rank slightly higher in most categories. Both bullpens are good, but I give the Yanks an edge there because of their stronger middle relief corps. As for the two starting pitchers, Verjamder clearly had a better season than Paxton and deserves to be favored here. He’s also more likely to go deeper into the game. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Yanks will lose this game. Verlander is an extreme fly ball pitcher and he is HR prone. The Yanks hit 306 HRs in the regular season (#2), and have hit 5 so far in this series including 1 off Verlander. They will need to hit a few tonight. However, Paxton gave up 23 dingers in just under 151 regular season innings. He has given up 2 more in his 7 postseason innings. The Astros hit 283 regular season HRs. They ranked 3rd, behind only the Twins and Yankees. It wouldn’t surprise me is the Astros hit a few as well
The Yanks desperately needed last night’s game, but didn’t get it. They are now down 3 games to 1, and with Verlander tonight and Cole on deck, I don’t see the Yanks coming back. This one looks over. I expect the Astros to score more runs off Paxton that the Yanks score off Verkander, and I expect them to end this series tonight.
Pick – HTN ML (-138 for 2 units)