For what it’s worth all I’ve got to say about last night’s game is OUCH! I had no mixed feelings about that game. I really liked the Astros. Yes, I know Verlander was working on short rest, and I didn’t really expect him to be as dominant as he was in Game 1. I expected he might struggle more, and he did. However I also expected Verlander to keep the Rays from running away with the game, and he did that too.
What I did not expect or see coming was the potent Astros not hitting and scoring runs. I’m sure the Astros didn’t expect that either. If you had told me beforehand that the Rays would score 4 runs, I would have projected around a 7-4 Astros win. I really expected them to score some runs off on the likes of Diego Castillo, Ryan Yarbrough and the rest of the Rays pen. It didn’t happened and, I lost 4 units. My hat’s off to those of you that were on the Rays. You were smarter than I was. That leaves me, +5.32 units for the postseason, and +238.49 units for the season.
Today, we have two Game 5s in the two NLDS series between the Cards and the Braves, and between the Nats and the Dodgers, so let’s get to it.
STL @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
5:02
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
STL
|
Flaherty - R
|
(25/33)
|
(7/33)
|
0.97
|
2.75
|
3.46
|
3.68
|
10.59
|
2.52
|
1.15
|
0.190
|
0.242
|
83.3%
|
0.23
|
37.2%
|
39.5%
|
ATL
|
Foltynewicz - R
|
(10/21)
|
(9/21)
|
1.25
|
4.54
|
4.97
|
4.71
|
8,08
|
2.85
|
1.77
|
0.241
|
0.265
|
71.7%
|
0.35
|
40.4%
|
36.7%
|
Edge – STL
Bullpens
Edge – STL
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
STL
|
4.72
|
19
|
-30.6
|
15
|
0.314
|
18
|
95
|
15
|
0.170
|
23
|
9.1%
|
11
|
23.0%
|
12
|
40.2%
|
7
|
14.4
|
2
|
ATL
|
5.28
|
7
|
26.4
|
9
|
0.332
|
7
|
102
|
9
|
0.195
|
8
|
9.8%
|
3
|
23.3%
|
17
|
41.4%
|
2
|
11.0
|
7
|
Edge - ATL
Conclusion: These two team split the first two games of this series in ATL, with the Cards winning game 1 7-6, and the Braves evening the series 3-0 in game 2. They also split the next two in STL. The Braves pulled out a 3-1 win in Gam 3, and the Cards pulled out a 5-4 10 inning win in Game 4 to even the series 2-2 and force a winner take all Game 5.
Despite winning at least 83 games in each the last three seasons, The Cards hadn’t made the playoffs since 2015. The Cards won 91 games this season and edged out the Brewers to capture the NL Central for the first time since 2015. The Braves won 94 games and locked up their second straight NL East title a few weeks ago, and are making back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 2012-13.
Offensively, in the first 4 games of this series the Braves have outscored the Cards 16-13, and the overall numbers for the regular season would seem to give the Braves a clear edge, but it’s not really that simple or clear. The Braves offense, which was very good over the first half of the season, tailed off and basically performed at a league average level over the second half of the season. The Braves were 5th in SLG, 6th in wOBA, and 8th in wRC+ during the first half of the season. By contrast, the Cards were 26th, 23rd, 21st, respectively in those categories during the first half. However, since the AS break, the offensive numbers of these two teams are nearly identical. In the second half, the Braves offense was 15th in SLG, 10th in wOBA, and 13th in wRC+, while the Cards were 16th, 16th, and 11th. Ultimately, it was the Brave’s walk rate (10.6%) that kept their offense from being even worse than it was. Nobody in baseball drew a higher percentage of walks in the second half of the season than the Braves. I still give them an edge here, but it’s a lot smaller than the overall numbers make it look.
As for the two bullpens, in this series the Braves pen has given up 8 runs (6 in Game 1) on 17 hits and 7 walks over 14.2 innings, with 10 Ks, 2 blown saves and a loss. Thee Cards pen has also struggled, giving up 8 runs (7 earned) on 12 hits and 10 walks over 11.2 innings, with 21 Ks, 2 wins, 1 blown save and 1 loss. The overall regular season numbers give the Cards a clear edge in the bullpen. Little was expected from either bullpen coming into this season, but the Cards pen performed better than expected, especially in the second half. Cardinal relievers posted a 3.91 ERA with a 3.96 FIP, and a 4.40 SIERA over the second half of the season. That said, the underlying metrics also suggested that the Cards pen might not be as good as they looked. In game 1 of this series, Tyler Webb and Carlos Martinez both struggled. Webb, who relieved starter Miles Mikolas, gave up 2 runs on a hit and a walk in just a third of an inning. Closer Carlos Martinez who was brought in to protect a 7-3 lead with 2 outs in the 8th, gave up 3 runs on 2 hits and a walk. Martinex stuggled again in Game 3, blowing a 1-0 lead and giving up 3 more runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in his 1 inning of work.
By contrast, The Braves relievers posted a 4.94 ERA with a 4.48 FIP and and a 4.17 SIERA since the AS break. The difference was largely in the HRs that they allowed. However, the Cards only ranked 17th in HRs, so the Cards may not be able to fully exploit the Braves’ biggest bullpen liability, their propensity for giving up the long ball. The Braves bullpen woes were on full dislay is game 1 as relievers Luke Jackson and Mark Melancon combined to give up 6 runs on 8 hits (1 HR) and 2 walks over 1.2 wretched innings. Melacon did notch 2 saves in Games 2 and 3, but Shane Greene blew the save in Game 4 giving up a run on 3 hits in 1.2 innings.
The Bottom line is that I don’t trust either of these bullpens, and that brings us to the two starting pitchers, and there I give the Cards the edge today.
I had really high expectations for Jack Flaherty coming into this season, but he struggled a lot more than I expected early on. However, Flaherty bounced back in a big way with 16 good starts in his last 17 outings, and in the one non good start, Flaherty didn’t give up any runs, but only went 4.1 innings. Over that 17 game stretch, Flaherty has given up a total of 9 runs (8 earned) on 50 hits and 26 walks over 108 innings. That translates to a 0.70 WHIP and a 0.75 ERA, , with 130 Ks over that 17 game stretch. Flaherty finished the season with 25 good starts and 7 poor ones in his 33 outings. His WHIP and ERA were both very good, and his ERA metrics, while about half a run higher than his ERA, were also very good. Flaherty’s K rate iwas excellent. His 55 walks in just over 196 innings might be a tad high, but not alarmingly so. In Game 2 of this series Flahery pitched well, just not well enough, He gave up 3 runs on 8 hits (1 HR) and a walk over 7 innings with 8 Ks in a 3-0 loss to Foltynewicz.
Last season, Mike Foltynewicz was a 1st 5 monster. For 5 innings, he was absolute money in the bank. This season, Foltynewicz wasn’t nearly as effective. He opened the season on the IL with a right elbow bone spur. After returning, his first 4 starts were all dreadful, and 7 of his first 10 starts were bad. They were so bad that Foltynewicz was sent to the minors to “work thing out”. However, after returning to the Braves in August, Foltynewicz started 10 more games during the regular season , with 6 good starts and just 3 poor one. He gave up 3 runs or less in 9 of the 10, and 4 in the other one. Foltynewicz was great in Game 2, outdueling Flaherty. He shut out the Card on 3 hits, without a walk, over 7 innings, with 7 Ks in that 3-0 Braves win.
Going in, I felt that this would be the closest of the four divisional round series. I’m not surprised that this series has gone 5 games, and no matter who wins, I won’t be surprised at the result. I gave the Braves a small offensive edge, and I don’t trust either bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, Foltynewicz has been a lot better since returning from his stint in the minors, and he was superb in Game 2. However, Flaherty has been on an incredible run for over 3 month now, and he’s shown few signs of slowing down. I expect both of these guys to pitch well in this “win or your season’s over” game. The Cards were a small favorite this morning, but it’s now closer to pick’em, so the Braves appear to be taking some money. I like this game to stay under for 5 innings and I bet that this morning when the total was 4 (It’s now 3.5 at most books). I’ll also side with the guy that I think is the better pitcher and goes longer in this game. I just hope the Cards pen doesn’t screw it up, but I think that there’s at least an equal chance that the Braves pen gives it up late,
Pick – 1st 5 Under 4 (+100 for 1 unit)
Pick – STL ML (-103 for 1 unit)
What a surprise, it took the Cards less time to put up 10 1st inning runs, that it did to do my write up on the game. Looks like my Cards play will be a winner, but my 1st 5 under never made it out of the first.
WASH @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
8:37
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
WASH
|
Strasburg - R
|
(24/33)
|
(9/33)
|
1.04
|
3.32
|
3.25
|
3.49
|
10.81
|
2.41
|
1.03
|
0.208
|
0.274
|
76.5%
|
0.22
|
30.5%
|
51.1%
|
LAD
|
Buehler - R
|
(22/30)
|
(8/30)
|
1.04
|
3.26
|
3.01
|
3.50
|
10.61
|
1.83
|
0.99
|
0.221
|
0.290
|
71.0%
|
0.17
|
41.8%
|
42.7%
|
Edge – LAD by a sliver
Bullpens
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
5.38
|
6
|
29.0
|
7
|
0.336
|
6
|
103
|
8
|
0.190
|
11
|
9.3%
|
8
|
20.9%
|
4
|
36.1%
|
24
|
3.7
|
12
|
LAD
|
5.47
|
5
|
102.9
|
4
|
0.338
|
4
|
111
|
4
|
0.215
|
4
|
9.7%
|
4
|
21.6%
|
9
|
42.3%
|
1
|
11.9
|
6
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: These two teams have split the first 4 games of this series. The Dodgers won game 1 behind a dominat performance by young Walker Buehler, and the Nats responded with a gem from Stepehen Strasburg on short rest in a 4-2 win. The Dodgers won Game 3 courtesy of a Nats bullpen meltdown in Game 3, but bounced back behind Mx Schezer in Game 4 for force a 5th and deciding game.
The Nats came into this series off an impressive 5-1 win over the Brewers in the NL wild card game. They’ve been playing playoff baseball since the start of June when they were just 24-33. They weren’t a .500 team until June 27, yet they still managed to win 93 games. They played .657 ball over their last 105 games. That’s a very impressive turnaround.
This is the 7th straight playoff appearance for the Dodgers. They have won back-to-back NL pennants, but have fallen short against both the Astros and the Red Sox. Their 108 wins is the most in franchise history. However, anything short of winning the World Series would be a disappointment for them. With a huge payroll, this team was and is built to win it all, but so far that goal has eluded them, and here they stand just one game away from another failed season.
Offensively. both of these teams are loaded, but of the two, the overall numbers say that the Dodger are a little better. In this series the Dodgers have outscored the Nats 19-14. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored a few more runs per game, and had the better ORAA, wOBA, wRC+ and ISO albeit by small margins. The Dodgers also walked 9.4% more and made 6.2% more hard contact. Of course they also struck out 0.7% more often, but that’s the only offensive edge that I can find for the Nats. The most glaring discrepancy is HR production. The Dodgers led the NL in HRs with 279. That was 23 more than the 2nd ranked Cubs. When you consider that the Dodgers played most of those games without a DH, you realize that they could very well have led the majors and surpassed the record-setting Twins if they played in the AL with a DH. By contrast, the Nationals only hit 231 HRs. Of course, pitching is at its best in the postseason with more Ks and fewer walks, hence less opportunities to manufacture runs. That’s why HR’s matter so much more in the playoffs. So far in this series, the Dodgers have 7 and the Nats only have 2.
As for the two bullpens, I expected that would be a huge factor in this series. The Nats starting rotation is a huge asset, but their bullpen is a huge liability. In a one-game playoff, you can do what the Nationals did against the Brewers, start Scherzer and follow him with Strasburg in relief. The Nats pen struggled in game 1, giving up 4 runs on 4 hits (including 2 HRs) and 1 walk. They opted to bring in a starter out of the pen again in game 2 using Scherzer in relief and it worked, but their luck ran out in Gmae 3 as Patrick Corbin was used in relief of Anibal Sanchez and got shelled. In Game 4 Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hunson did toss 2 solid innings in relief of Mas Scherzer, but this season, that’s been the exception. The only trustworthy arms that the Nats have are their starters. This is a “do or die” game 5. If you lose there is no tomorrow, so I expect that we could see started out of the pen if deemed necessary.
The Dodgers bullpen isn’t great either, but the Dodgers do possess good pitching depth with Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda, and Dustin May. They still also have closer Kenley Jansen, and they can also throw out guys like Julio Urias, Dylan Floro, and Caleb Ferguson. They have a lot more options than the Nats do, and that’s an advantage.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and I can’t give either one a real edge.
After pitching 3 solid innings in relief of Max Scherzer in the Nats 4-3 wild card win against the Brewers, Stephen Strasbutg threw a gem against the Dodgers in LA in Game 2 of this series. Despite pitching on just two days rest, Strasburg gave up just 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings, with 10 Ks the Nats 4-2 win to even up the series at 1-1. Over the course of the regular season, Strasburg delivered 24 good starts in his 33 outings, and just 9 poor ones, and 3 of those poor starts were in early April. Strasburg’s WHIP was very good, and his ERA was also good. His ERA metrics were even a little better than his ERA. Strasburg’s K rate was elite, and he combined it with a better than 50% GB rate. He did give up 56 walks in his 209 innings, but his BB/K was good, as was his very low hard contact rate. Strasburg was not hit hard, and managed to stay healthy.
Walker Buehler was outstanding in Game 1 of this series, shutting out the Nats on 1 hit and 3 walks over 6 innings, with 8 Ks the the Dodger 6-0 win. Biuehler didn’t see much action during spring training. That was probably a mistake by the Dodgers, and it definitely showed in his early starts. Buehler gave up 11 runs on 13 hits and 5 walks over 12 innings in his first 3 starts. Buehler’s velocity wasn’t the problem, lack of command was. Buehler actually threw harder than he did last season, but he had no command. After that shaky start however, Buehler was mostly superb. He started 30 games this season and delivered 22 good starts, and just 8 poor ones, and one of those was at Coors. His WHIP and ERA were both excellent, as were his ERA metrics. His K rate ws elite and he’s didn’t give up a lot of walks (37) or HRs (20). Buehler did have a few really bad outings, but they were the rare exception.
The numbers say that there’s not a hell of a lot that separates these two pitchers. I gave the Dodgers the edge, but only by a hair. The bullpen edge goes to the Dodgers if only by default, and the reality is that it’s all hand on board for both teams, so they won’t be reluctant to use starters if needed. The offensive edge goes to the Dodgers as well, especially in the power department.
Pick – LAD ML (-164 for 2 units)