For what it’s worth yesterday was one of my worst days of the season. I really liked five teams to win yesterday, the Yankees, Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, and Astros. I parlayed the hell out of those teams. I also liked two more teams, the Indians and Cubs, but not as much, so I only parlayed them once, with each other. Amazingly, at least to me, four of those teams, the Yankees, Braves, Astros and Cubs, all lost! That completely wiped out my profit from Monday. I finished -17.82 units for the day. That left me +61.93 units for the month of September, and +257.26 for the season.
Playing the worst team in the majors, the Yankees grabbed q 6-0 lead in the 2nd inning, yet managed to lose this game. The Yanks beat up on Edwin Jackson as expected, but with the Yanks leading 6-2, 2B Torres dropped a throw at shortstop on what appeared to be an inning-ending double play, enabling the Tigers to tie the game at 6-6 and the slugfest was on. That should have worked out fine, after all, we had one of the best offenses going up against arguably the worst, so what the hell happened? When a team hits 6 HRs and scores 11 runs, there’s absolutely no acceptable excuse for losing the game. I can only conclude that the Yanks really didn’’t give a damn, and that’s always unacceptable.
As for the Braves, I thought that Gray Ghost aptly summarized the Braves effort, or lack thereof, in his post “Atlanta did not come to play. 1) Camargo leading off 2nd loafing into 2nd on a ball off high off the wall that should have been a stand up triple. Didn’t score 2) Albies makes 1st out at third base next inning which could have been a monster inning 3) Acuna almost robs a HR, ball flies out of glove and he’s arguing that he caught it while Kingery circles the bases on an inside the park HR. Throw the damn ball in first! I can handle losing, but that kind of crap pisses me off to no end.” I couldn’t have said it any better.
The Astros got blown out 21-7, after embarrassing the A’s 21-3 on Monday. I guess turnabout is fair play, but if I’m the Astros I’m worried about Wade Miley.
My other loser was the Cubs, and that one’s on me. The Cubs poor road record gave me pause, ut I went ahead and palyed them anyway. I should have passed, my bad.
Stii, it’s been a very good season, and just a really lousy day. It happens.
We’ve got less than three weeks of the regular season left, so let try and make the most of it.
I’ve only got one parlay play so far.
2-Team ML Parlay: NYY + LAD (+138 for 2 units)
NYY @ DET
Starting Pitchers
6:40
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
NYY
|
Sabathia - L
|
(10/20)
|
(7/20)
|
1.40
|
4.93
|
5.96
|
4.70
|
8.61
|
3.23
|
2.42
|
0.263
|
0.282
|
78.9%
|
0.38
|
39.1%
|
39.5%
|
DET
|
Boyd - L
|
(15/29)
|
(12/29)
|
1.19
|
4.57
|
4.21
|
3.47
|
11.82
|
2.26
|
1.89
|
0.241
|
0.306
|
75.5%
|
0.19
|
42.2%
|
35.0%
|
Edge – DET
Bullpens
Edge – NYY big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
5.81
|
2
|
118.0
|
2
|
0.347
|
3
|
117
|
2
|
0.220
|
2
|
9.1%
|
11
|
22.7%
|
14
|
0.40
|
9
|
0.1
|
14
|
DET
|
3.70
|
30
|
-162.8
|
29
|
0.289
|
29
|
77
|
29
|
0.149
|
28
|
6.5%
|
29
|
26.7%
|
30
|
0.24
|
30
|
-3.7
|
18
|
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Tigers shocked the Yanks 12-11 last night, in a game that should have never been that close. The Yanks have most of the edges here, and by a wide margin as well. Offensively the Yanks are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. The Tigers (along with the Marlins) are one of the worst, despite the 12 run outburst last night. The Yanks have one of the better bullpens in the league, although it sure didn’t look that way in that fiasco last night. . The Tigers have one of the worst, and that was also evident last night. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and I’m giving the Tigers that edge by a decent margin.
I don’t think much of CC Sabathia these days. At one time he was a really good starting pitcher, but that time is long past. Sabathia has started 20 games for the Yankees, with 10 good starts, and 7 bad ones. His WHIP is high and so is his ERA, and his ERA metrics are even higher than his already high ERA. Sabsthia does not missing many bats these days, and his 35 walks in just over 100 innings is high, as are his 27 HRs. There are a lot of valid reasons to be very skeptical of CC Sabathia, and I am..
Matt Boyd has been mostly pretty good considering that he’s pitching for the worst team in baseball, but just not recently. Boyd now has 15 good starts, but 12 poor ones, including 4 of his last 6, in his 20 outings. I don’t really know what the problem is, other than maybe it’s simply that the Tigers are so bad that it seems hopeless. Even when he ptches well, the Tigers usually find a way to lose. Boyd still has a good WHIP, but his ERA is now higher than league average. His ERA metrics are actually better than his ERA, and that usually means Boyd’s been the victim of some bad luck, but this Tigers team is so bad that it might not get better. Boyd has an elite K rate, but a whopping 36 HRs. Boyd’s not pitching real well right now, and an angry Yanks teams is not the ideal opponent.
Sabathia;s awful, but I just have to back the Yanks off that embarrassing loss last nigh. Besides, do you really expect the Tigers to win back to back games? Neithe do I.
Pick – NYY
LAD @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAD
|
Stripling - R
|
(7/13)
|
(3/13)
|
1.11
|
3.38
|
3.96
|
3.82
|
8.72
|
1.83
|
1.41
|
0.239
|
0.281
|
79.3%
|
0.24
|
33.2%
|
53.6%
|
BALT
|
Means - L
|
(15/23)
|
(5/23)
|
1.14
|
3.65
|
4.45
|
5.20
|
6.57
|
2.12
|
1.31
|
0.234
|
0.253
|
74.1%
|
0.31
|
28.9%
|
31.4%
|
Edge – LAD slight
Bullpens
Edge – LAD
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.46
|
5
|
96.1
|
4
|
0.340
|
5
|
112
|
4
|
0.218
|
3
|
9.9%
|
1
|
21.2%
|
8
|
0.47
|
3
|
8
|
9
|
BALT
|
4.37
|
23
|
-89.1
|
24
|
0.305
|
24
|
87
|
25
|
0.165
|
23
|
7.3%
|
26
|
23.4%
|
18
|
0.31
|
26
|
2.9
|
13
|
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: We again have one of the best teams in baseball facing off with one of the worst. The Dodgers shut down the O’s last night , but that was with the elite Walker Buehler on the hill. The Dodgers have the better offense and the better bullpen. As for the two starting pitchers, that should be much closer tonight.
As a spot starter, Ross Stripling has stated 13 games with 7 good starts and 3 poor ones. His WHIP and ERA are very good, and his ERA metrics are solid as well. Stripling is striking out close to a batter per innings, and limiting his walks, HRs and hard contact.
John Means has been the Orioles best starting pitcher. He has started 23 games with 15 good starts, including his last 4, and just 5 poor ones. That pretty impressive considering that he’s pitching for the Orioles. His WHIP and ERA are both good, but Means’ ERA metrics are about a full run higher than his ERA. That’s because of a pedestrian K rate, and a very low BABIP. On the plus side, Means doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact.
The pitching matchup is closer than I would like, and if the O’s are to win a game in this series, this would be their best shot, but the Dodgers are still the much better team, and now trail the Yankees and Astros by 1 game in the race for home field in the playoffs and WS. I still like the Dodgers.
The Yankee/Tiger game was postponed so I'll play the Dodger RL.
Pick – LAD RL (-133 for 2 units)
ATL @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
7:05
|
SP 2019
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
ATL
|
Keuchel - L
|
(11/15)
|
(3/15)
|
1.32
|
3.47
|
4.51
|
4.24
|
7.25
|
2.88
|
1.19
|
0.260
|
0.298
|
81.7%
|
0.40
|
36.5%
|
61.3%
|
PHIL
|
Eflin - R
|
(15/24)
|
(9/24)
|
1.35
|
4.42
|
4.67
|
4.81
|
7.03
|
2.28
|
1.47
|
0.272
|
0.302
|
71.7%
|
0.33
|
36.7%
|
43.5%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Edge ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
Braves
|
5.37
|
7
|
25.9
|
8
|
0.334
|
7
|
102
|
8
|
0.199
|
6
|
9.7%
|
4
|
23.0%
|
16
|
0.42
|
8
|
9.9
|
7
|
Phillies
|
4.89
|
14
|
-47.7
|
18
|
0.317
|
18
|
92
|
19
|
0.180
|
18
|
9.2%
|
8
|
23.0%
|
16
|
0.40
|
9
|
13.8
|
2
|
Edge – ATL
Conclusion: The Phils needed last night’s game, and got it 6-5. They need this one too. The Phils are still 2 back in the NL wild card race. The problem here is that while the Braves have a commanding leading lead in the NL East, they also have most of the edges. The Braves have the much better offense. The Braves bullpen stinks, but so does the Phiils pen, and the numbers actually say that the Braves pen is better of the two. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and I give the Braves the edge there as well.
Dallas Keuchel has now made 15 starts and 11 of them have been good, including his last 5, and just 3 have been poor. Keuchel has given up 3 runs or less in 12 of those starts, and more than 4 just once. His WHIP is solid and so is his ERA, but Keuchel’s ERA metrics are still higher than his ERA. Keuchel still isn’t getting as many Ks as he used to (73 in just under 91 IP), but he is still getting a ton of GBs. It looks like Keuchel is finally rounding into form, and just in time for the post season.
Zach Eflin got off to a fast start with good outings in each of his first two starts this season, but thing have gone downhill since. Elfin has now started 24 games and added 13 more good outings to his first 2 . That compares to 9 poor outings. Eflin stuggled so much that he was relegation to the PHIL bullpen. He’s started 4 games since returning from his bullpen exile, and the last 4 have been good.
The pitching matchup could be close, but I give Keuchel the edge there, and the Braves the edge in this game. They played very poorly last night and almost won anyway. I think that they play better tonight. I bet this one this morning.
Pick – ATL ML (-124 for 2 units)
MIL @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
MIL
|
Davies - R
|
(16/27)
|
(7/27)
|
1.34
|
3.69
|
4.78
|
5.44
|
5.79
|
2.93
|
1.27
|
0.261
|
0.281
|
76.2%
|
0.50
|
36.7%
|
39.4%
|
MIA
|
Lopez - R
|
(10/17)
|
(7/17)
|
1.16
|
4.75
|
3.99
|
4.19
|
8.21
|
1.88
|
1.19
|
0.249
|
0.294
|
66.9%
|
0.23
|
34.5%
|
46.0%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
Edge – MIL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
MIL
|
4.72
|
18
|
-16.6
|
15
|
0.325
|
9
|
97
|
14
|
0.192
|
10
|
9.9%
|
1
|
24.5%
|
23
|
0.40
|
9
|
8.6
|
8
|
MIA
|
3.75
|
29
|
-183.2
|
30
|
0.287
|
30
|
77
|
29
|
0.129
|
30
|
6.6%
|
28
|
24.6%
|
24
|
0.27
|
28
|
-20.9
|
30
|
Conclusion: The Brewers are battling for an playoff spot and sit 5 out in the NL Central, but just12 out in the NL wild card race. The Marlins reside in the NL East basement again.
The Brewers have most of the edged here, the better offense, even without Christian Yellich, and the better bullpen. s for the two starting pitcher s, that’s close.
Honestly, I’ve never been all that impressed by Zach Davies, and that hasn’t changed. Davies has started 27 games for the Brewers and delivered 17 good starts and just 7 poor ones. That’s better than a 2 to 1 ratio of good starts to bad, so that’s a positive. Davies has a decent WHIP and ERA. I guess we should view that as a positive too. However, his ERA metrics are at least a full run higher than his ERA. That tells me that Davies has been lucky. That’s a negative, but damn, we’ve been saying that for years now. Davies also doesn’t miss many bats. He has just 91 Ks in just over 141 innings. That’s another negative. His 46 walks is a lot for a pitch to contact type like Davies, and when couple with his 144 hits allowed, that’s 190 base runners in just over 141 innings. That’s too many. Sooner or later those base runners will become runs. Davies has been living on the edge, with a very small margin for error, but he seems to keep getting away with it, and he’s facing a weak hitting Marlins team.
Pablo Lopez has started 17 games for the Marlins with 10 good starts and 7 poor ones. Lopez has given up 49 runs (48 earned) on897 hits and 19 walks over 91 innings. The one problem is that Lopez had been on the IL since June 19 with a right shoulder strain. In his 3 starts since returning, 6the first 2 were poor, but the last one was better. He gave up just 2 runs, but 8 hits over 6.1 inning to the weak hitting Royals. Before going down, Lopez had a good WHIP, a slightly below league average ERA, and ERA metrics that were lower than his ERA.
The pitching matchup is close. I’m taking a leap of faith with Zach Davies and hoping that regression doesn’t rear it’s ugly head tonight. the Brewers are the better team in every other respect, and they really need this winnable game.
Pick – MIL ML (-138)
WASH @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
7:40
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
WASH
|
Strasburg - R
|
(20/29)
|
(9/29)
|
1.05
|
3.50
|
3.20
|
3.48
|
10.80
|
2.29
|
1.02
|
0.213
|
0.281
|
74.3%
|
0.21
|
29.6%
|
50.1%
|
MINN
|
Perez - L
|
(13/25)
|
(11/25)
|
1.41
|
4.59
|
4.70
|
4.98
|
7.04
|
3.36
|
1.29
|
0.262
|
0.295
|
69.6%
|
0.50
|
33.8%
|
49.5%
|
Edge WASH
Bullpenss
Not Relevent 1st 5 Wager
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
5.39
|
6
|
18.0
|
9
|
0.335
|
6
|
102
|
8
|
0.191
|
11
|
9.1%
|
11
|
21.0%
|
4
|
0.43
|
5
|
3.9
|
11
|
MINN
|
5.83
|
1
|
115.1
|
3
|
0.348
|
2
|
117
|
2
|
0.226
|
1
|
8.2%
|
19
|
21.1%
|
5
|
0.39
|
14
|
-7
|
23
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: The Twins took last night’s game 5-0, and now lead the Indians in the AL Central by 5 games. The Nats still lead the NL wild card race by 2 games.
Both teams have potent offenses, but of the two, the Twins have the edge. As for the two starting pitchers, there the edge is reversed.
Stephen Strasburg now has 20 good starts in his 29 outings, and 9 starts in which he gave up 4 or more earned runs, and 3 of those poor starts were in early April. Strasburg’s WHIP is very good, and his ERA is also good. His ERA metrics are even a little better than his ERA. Strasburg’s K rate is elite, and he’s combining it with a 50% GB rate. Strasburg has given up a few walks (47 in 155 IP), but his BB/K is good. Also very good is his very low hard contact rate. Strasburg is not getting hit hard, so as long as he stays healthy and gets run support, there’s no reason that Strasburg shouldn’t continue pitching really well.
Martin Perez has tossed 13 good starts in his 25 outings as a starter, but 11 poor ones. After a fast start, Perez has struggled a lot more since the AS break. Perez’s WHIP and ERA are both mediocre, and his ERA metrics are higher than his ERA. A factor in the discrepancy between his ERA and metrics are his 61 walks. That’s too many for 148 innings, and those added base runners have been scoring more lately. Perez still has one of the best cutters in baseball, even though he basically just learned the pitch this season and his velocity is good, he has touched 96 mph, and he also isn’t giving up a lot of hard contact, so there’s still a lot more to like about Martin Perez than there used to be, but he’s definitely struggled more over the 2nd half of the season.
Pick – WASH 1st 5 ML (-152 for 2 units)
CLEV @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
Plutko - R
|
(9/16)
|
(4/16)
|
1.16
|
4.16
|
5.46
|
5.18
|
6.29
|
1.83
|
2.03
|
0.249
|
0.250
|
80.8%
|
0.30
|
35.4%
|
30.1%
|
Peters - L
|
(3/8)
|
(5/8)
|
1.49
|
4.69
|
5.20
|
5.05
|
7.59
|
3.35
|
1.56
|
0.276
|
0.311
|
66.4%
|
0.61
|
46.5%
|
39.8%
|
Edge – CLEV
Bullpens
Indians
|
15
|
4.3
|
27
|
15
|
39
|
15
|
0.44
|
77.6%
|
1.28
|
3.63
|
4.06
|
4.04
|
0.33
|
24.1%
|
7.9%
|
Angels
|
24
|
2.4
|
40
|
28
|
29
|
12
|
0.56
|
72.4%
|
1.39
|
4.74
|
4.72
|
4.30
|
0.41
|
23.4%
|
9.6%
|
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.72
|
18
|
-37.4
|
16
|
0.320
|
16
|
94
|
16
|
0.184
|
15
|
9.2%
|
8
|
21.6%
|
10
|
0.43
|
5
|
3.8
|
12
|
LAA
|
4.94
|
12
|
6.8
|
11
|
0.321
|
14
|
102
|
8
|
0.180
|
18
|
9.6%
|
5
|
19.8%
|
3
|
0.49
|
2
|
-5.5
|
20
|
Edge – LAA
Conclusion: The Indians took the first two games of this seriest, and now trail the Twins by 5 games in the AL Centtral. They are also just a half a game behind the A’s for the final AL wild card spot. For the Angels this horrific season can’t end fast enough.
Offensively, the Angels possess the better offense, but when we turn to the two bullpens, the edge is reversed and the Indians have the edge. That leaves the two starting pitchers and that matchup is closer.
Adam Plutko has now started 16 game for the Indians, with 9 good starts and 4 poor ones. Plutko’s numbers are a truly mixed and confusing bag. Plutko has a great WHIP, so he’s mot giving up a lot of hits or walks. Yet his ERA is just a little better than league average, and his ERA metrics are all over a run higher than his ERA. Why would that be? Three things jump out at me. First is his .250 BABIP. The second is his 80.8% strand rate, and the 3rd is his 20 HRs allowed. The BABIP is low. Hell it’s just 1 point higher than his BAA. That shouldn’t last. The strand rate is extremely high. That’s almost certainly going to regress as well. Plutko’s metrics are less about what Plutko has done so far, and more about predicting what he’s likely to do going forward. As for the HRs, Plutko is an extreme FB pitcher, FB pitchers are more HR prone, and Plutko has already given up 20, and tonight he’s facing a very dangerous Angels lineup.
Dillon Peters has now started 8 games for the Angels, with 3 good starts and 5 poor ones. In those 8 starts, Peters has given up 28 runs (21 earned) on 45 hits and 15 walks over 40.1 innings. Peterson also entered 1 game out of the bullpen in the first inning, in relief of an ineffective Taylor Clarke and tossed 7.2 solid innings against the Indians, giving up 3 runs and 8 hits. I’m calling that another good start even though it technically wasn’t a start. There’s nothing that really impresses here, and Peters is giving up more than a hit per inning, not to mention the 15 walks.
Pick – CLEV ML (-119 for 2 units)