For what it’s worth my amazing MLB season got a cold hard dose of reality yesterday. Don’t misunderstand me. I still think that I really might have stumbled on to something with these 2-team parlays. It still seems like a perfectly logical way to get around these horrendously inflated lines, and it’s still working very well, just not all the time. Upsets still happen, not often, but when they do, you can still get burned. Yesterday, I liked seven teams, the Rays, Astros, Indians, Cardinals, Phillies, Twins and Mets. So I used all seven in a variety of 2-team parlays, but unlike Thursday, they did not all win. The Phillies, Twins and Mets all lost, and I finished -9.33 units for the day, but no big tears here. I’m still +90.63 units for the month of August, and +182.22 units for theseason.
I also split my two 1st 5 sides winning with the Reds and losing with the Rangers.
The Phillies had no business losing to the wretched Marlins. They led 7-0 going into the bottom of the 3rd. The Marlins put up 7 in the bottom of the 3rd and went on to a 19-11 blowout. 19 runs from a team that averages just 3.74 runs per game? I don’t give a damn what the standings say. This Phillies team is not a playoff contender. They’re a total fraud.
As for the Twins, they had no business losing either. I discuss that in more depth below. (Tep, I’m on then again tonight). If I were the Twins, I’d be very worried. “Them Injuns are a-comin’ !
The Mets at least had a legitimate excuse. They were playing the Braves and it was a very close game that could have gone either way. The Mets had their chances. Once again Jacob deGrom was great, but he again got no run support. It’s almost criminal.
The Rangers took an early 3-0 lead but it and then some, but that’s why they’re a bad team and shame on me for trusting them.
The biggest blame for my poor performance was probably me. My original plan was to put just 1 unit on each play, but I thought I knew better, and put 2 units on some but not all. If I had just stuck to my original plan, I could have cut my losses in half. That was just plain dumb.
Well today is another day and we’ve got a full slate, but there’s just not that much that I really like, just 3 teams, and they’re all prohibitive favorites.
2-Team ML Parlays
HTN + MINN (+103 for 2 units)
HTN + CLEV (-102 for 2 units)
MINN + CLEV (-138 for 2 units)
3-Team ML Parlay
HTN + MINN + CLEV (+163 for 2 units)
LAA @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
LAA
|
Peters - L
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.48
|
3.96
|
5.02
|
4.81
|
8.28
|
3.60
|
1.44
|
0.276
|
0.324
|
72.7%
|
0.36
|
45.3%
|
45.3%
|
HTN
|
Miley - L
|
(21/26)
|
(5/26)
|
1.20
|
3.18
|
4.34
|
4.60
|
7.64
|
2.93
|
1.22
|
0.230
|
0.262
|
79.1%
|
0.38
|
35.8%
|
51.9%
|
Edge – HTN big
Bullpens
Edge – HTN
Offenses
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
LAA
|
5.06
|
10
|
22.3
|
8
|
0.323
|
13
|
104
|
6
|
0.183
|
18
|
9.5%
|
5
|
19.5%
|
2
|
0.39
|
13
|
-4.3
|
21
|
HTN
|
5.45
|
5
|
135.7
|
1
|
0.350
|
1
|
122
|
1
|
0.213
|
4
|
9.8%
|
2
|
18.2%
|
1
|
0/.54
|
2
|
-7.8
|
27
|
Edge – HTN
Conclusion: Last nightm the Astros struggled a lot more than I expected before escaping with a 5-4 win. Zack Greinkke got roughed up to the tune of 10 hits, but only gave up 2 runs in his 6.2 innings. The Astros now comfortably lead the AL West. They are 7.5 games ahead of the A’s, with just 32 left to play. Yje A’s would need to play better that .700 baseball to catch them. The Angels have had a really tough season and now sit 5 games under .500, and well out of contention
The Angels can hit. Offense hasn’t been their problem. In this series it’s just that the Astros hit even better. When we factor in how each team has performed against lefties, we find that the Angels rank 22nd in ORAA, 21st in wOBA and 15th in wRC+ against lefties. By contrast, the Astros rank first in all categories against lefties. The Astros hit lefties better than any team in baseball.
The Astros also have the better bullpen. I can’t say that I trust any bullpen these days, but as bullpens go, the Astros have one of the better ones, and the Angels…not so much. That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and tonight I think the Astros have the edge there as well.
Dillon Peters has now started 2 games for the Angels, with 2 good starts and 3 poor ones. In those 5 starts, Peters has given up 15 runs (11 earned) on 27 hits and 10 walks over 25 innings, with 23 Ks. Peterson also entered 1 game out of the bullpen in the first inning, in relief of an ineffective Taylor Clarke and tossed 7.2 solid innings against the Indians, giving up 3 runs and 8 hits. I’m calling that another good start even though it technically wasn’t a start. There’s nothing that really impresses here, and Peters is giving up more than a hit per inning, not to mention the 10 walks.
Wade Miley may not be as dominating as say Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlamder, or even as good as Zack Greinke, but damn, he mostly just keeps on delivering. Miley now has 21 good starts in his 26 outings. That’s compared to just 5 poor ones. That’s not too shabby for the #4 starting pitcher in the Astros rotation. Miley’s WHIP and ERA are both very good, but his ERA metrics are more than a full run higher than his ERA, so he should be due for some negative regression, but that’s been the case all season. Miley’s still not giving up a lot of hard contact or HRs (20), and he is generating a lot of GBs. That’s why he’s outperforming his metrics. Miley has given up more than 3 earned runs (4) just twice all season. He has excellent contact management skills, and is more likely to keep the ball in the park because of his GB tendencies. Miley keeps his team in games, and the Astros are 18-8 when Miley takes the mound.
The Astros have all the edges and that’s how they’re priced. I expect them to win this game, but I don’t want to lay more than -200, so I’ll use them in parlays.
DET @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
7:00
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
DET
|
Jackson - R
|
(3/8)
|
(5/8)
|
1.83
|
8.25
|
6.99
|
5.26
|
7.25
|
3.75
|
2.75
|
0.327
|
0.345
|
53.2%
|
0.61
|
48.8%
|
45.7%
|
MINN
|
Gibson - R
|
(12/25)
|
(9/25)
|
1.32
|
4.43
|
4.11
|
4.28
|
8.61
|
2.91
|
1.17
|
0.252
|
0.303
|
67.6%
|
0.34
|
35.5%
|
51.5%
|
Edge - MINN
Bullpens
Edge – MINN
Offenses
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
DET
|
3.63
|
30
|
-142.6
|
29
|
0.289
|
29
|
77
|
29
|
0.150
|
28
|
6.9%
|
28
|
26.4%
|
30
|
0.26
|
28
|
-5.0
|
23
|
MINN
|
5,83
|
2
|
96.1
|
3
|
0.349
|
2
|
116
|
2
|
0.229
|
1
|
8.0%
|
21
|
20.4%
|
4
|
0.39
|
13
|
-6.6
|
24
|
Edge- MINN big
Conclusion: Last night’s game looked like a complete mismatch on paper. The Twins had every edge, the much better offense, bullpen and starting pitcher, but it didn’t work out that way, It actually started out that way as Joe Berrios took a seemingly comfortable 3-0 lead into the 6h. Then all hell broke loose. Berrios gave up 5 6th ,inning runs including a grad slam and the Twins lost 9-6 to the putrid Tigers. Berrios gave up 5 runs and 10 hits in 5.1 innings. He has now given up at least 5 earned runs in two of his past four starts after having just one such outing in the first four months of the season. Now the Twins lead in the AL Central is down to 2 games over the Indians..
The Twins have one of the most potent offenses in baseball, while the Tigers (along with the Marlins)could be the worst. I don’t much like the Twins bullpen, the numbers say that it’s still a lot better than the Tigers wretched pen. As for tonight’s two starting pitchers, the Twins should have an edge there as well.
As amazing as it seemed, Edwin Jackson had 2 good starts right out of the box for the Tigers against the Royals and Mariners. Jackson held the Royals to 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks over 6.1 innings. Of course, it was the Royals, so that start should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. However, Jackson followed that by holding the Mariners to 2 runs on 4 hits (2 HRs) over 5 innings. Granted that the Mariners aren’t a very good team either, but they can hit some. However his last start was a big step up in class, taking on the Astros. He gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings. I referred to Jason’s first 2 starts with the Tiger as amazing because before joining the Tigers, Jackson was stinking out the joint in TOR. Jackson made 5 starts for the Blue Jays, 1 good (his first), and then 4 poor ones. The Tigers are the 15th team that Jackson has pitched for in his surprisingly long MLB career. This season Jackson now has 3 good starts and 5 poor ones. In his 8 starts, Jackson has given up 40 runs (33 earned) on 51 hits, including 11 HRs, and 15 walks over 36 innings with 29 Ks. His WHIP is still astronomically high as is his ERA. Jackson’s ERA metrics, while better than his outrageous ERA, are still awful, and 66 base runners 11 HRs in 36 innings is scary bad. There’s absolutely nothing to like about Jackson.
Kyle Gibson has an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Gibson has started 25 games for the Twins and does have 12 good starts to 9 poor ones. That’s not a great ratio of good starts to bad, but it’s not bad either. Gibson’s WHIP is OK and his ERA is around league average. His ERA metrics are actually a little better than his ERA, so maybe we see a little positive regression. Gibson is striking out close to a batter per inning, and generating aover 50% GB rate. He’s not giving up a lot of hard contact or HRs (18), but his 45 walks in 139 innings is high side. Other than the walks, Gibson’s been solid, but not really good.
The Tigers are a dismal 39-87, 48 games below .500, and the worst record in baseball. Do you really expect them to take two straight from the Twins tonight, with Edwin Jackson on the mound? I most certainly do not. The Twins lost a game last night that they had no business losing. I doubt they do it again. That why they’re more than a -300 favorite, too expensive to bet, but a good parlay candidate.
Pick - MINN
KC @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
SP 2019
|
GOOS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC%
|
GB %
|
KC
|
Sprakman - R
|
(7/16)
|
(9/16)
|
1.39
|
5.62
|
5.94
|
5.55
|
5.15
|
2.47
|
2.06
|
0.278
|
0.276
|
16.8%
|
0.49
|
40.5%
|
40.3%
|
CLEV
|
Clevinger
|
(10/13)
|
(3/113)
|
1.12
|
3.11
|
2.47
|
3.15
|
13.06
|
2.99
|
0.75
|
0.218
|
0.338
|
77.8%
|
0.23
|
38.9%
|
43.2%
|
Edge – CLEV big
Bullpens
Edge – CLEV big
Offenses
TEAM
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB/K
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
KC
|
4.21
|
28
|
-107.5
|
28
|
0.299
|
28
|
83
|
28
|
0.155
|
27
|
7.5%
|
25
|
22.5%
|
12
|
0.34
|
21
|
-2.5
|
17
|
CLEV
|
4.68
|
18
|
-28.7
|
16
|
0.320
|
16
|
95
|
16
|
0.184
|
16
|
9.1%
|
12
|
21.5%
|
10
|
0.43
|
5
|
5.1
|
11
|
Edge – CLEV
Conclusion: After getting swept by the Mets,, the Indians bounced back with a solid 4-1 win against the Ryals last night. Coupled with the Twins upset lass against the Tigers, the Indians now finds themselves trailing the Twins by just 2 games in the AL Centrla, and tied with the A’s for the second AL wild card spot. The Royals, as usual, are now 39 games under .500 and looking to next season.
Offensively, the Indians are a much better team that they were heading into the AS break. They added some key bats. They’re also much better than the Royals, who are just a bad offensive team. As for the two bullpens, we’ll try to forgmostly et about Brad Hand not covering 1st the other night and costing the Indians win. The Indians pen has performed admirably. The Royals pen has performed much like the rest of this Royals team, not very well. That leaves the two starting pitchers and I think that the Indians have a big edge there tonight.
Glen Sparkman has now started 16 games for the Royals with 7 good starts and 9 poor ones, including 6 of his last 8. That’s more bad starts than good! Sparkman’s WHIP is high and his ERA is really high. What’s troubling is that his ERA metrics are every bit as bad as his ERA. Hell they’re higher than his K rate. Sparkman ‘s xWOBA is higher than his wOBA, his xBAA is also higher than his actual BAA and his xSLG is much higher than his actual SLG. That all points to continued negative regression for Sparkman. That’s also confirmed by three other numbers, a .278 BAA, and a 276 BABIP. Opposing batters are hitting Sparkman, but so far he’s been lucky that many of those balls are being hit right at fielders. A BABIP that’s actually a little lower than his BAA highlights just how lucky Sparkman’s been. When you have 150 base runners in just 105 innings, and a 5.15 K/9 rate, it’s just a matter of times before more of those batted balls become hits or fly out of the park for HRs, and more of those base runners score. That highlights a second problem for Sparkman, the long ball. He’s already given up 22 HRs in his 16 starts, and 19 of them have come in his last 13 starts. Sparkman can’t rely on Ks to get out of jams. He misses very few bats with just 61 Ks. I want no part of Glen Sparkman.
Mike Clevinger has made 123starts, and 10 of them have been very good, including 8 of his last 9, while just 3 were poor. Of the 3 poor starts, one came when he tried to pitch through an injury, another was his first start after returning from that injury and the IL, and then there was his next to last start against the Red Sox. Other than those 3 outings, Clevinger has given up just 9 runs on 38 hits and 16 walks over 61.1 innings in his other 10 starts with 90 Ks. Clevinger’s K rate is elite, and he’s only given up 6 HRs. His 24 walks are a little high for just over 72 innings, bot other than that, Clevinger has pitched really well, and I expect he’ll do so again tonight.
The Indians didn’t look all that good in getting swept by the Mets earlier this week, but they did blow one of those games on reliever Hand’s mental error ( mot covering 1st base), and they were facing an elite pitching staff. The Royals don’t have an elite pitching staff. Hell, they don’t have an elite anything! The Indians are still the much better team, and Clevinger is the much better pitche. I expect the Indians win again tonight. Alas, they too are priced at more than -300, What’s a guy to do? Parlay, that’s what.
Pick - CLEV