They did it again. Last night, the Boys in Blue won in walk-off fashion for the 12th time this year, their second walk-off in as many nights.
My first instinct would be to fade any team in any sport coming off an adrenaline rush. Usually, I think that there is only so long you can stay at a 10 emotionally before a steep decline in enthusiasm occurs.
But this team seems different.
The Dodgers are 9-2 in the next game after a walk-off win. 9-1 when they play the following day. I considered the run-line, but decided against it because of the pitcher-heavy Dodgers propensity to win close games. The Dodgers are only 6-5 against the spread in games after a walk-off win, 6-4 when playing the following day.
Dodgers continue to be nearly unbeatable at home. LA is 14-4 at home in the second half. 51-16 on the season.
LA hands the ball to their ace, Hyun-Jin Ryu. In this year of offensive mayhem, Ryu (12-3, 1.64 ERA) is on pace to have the lowest ERA since Greg Maddux in 1995. Although he has been injury prone in the second half the last few years, Ryu has gotten stronger over the last couple months in this campaign. The 32-year old has allowed just 6 runs in 6 starts since the All Star Break.
The Yankees starter, James Paxton is of course not on Ryu’s level which is reflected in the price.
The Dodgers have a sneaky bullpen advantage as well in this tilt. The Yankees had the 8th best bullpen over the first half of the season, and have the 16th best bullpen so far in the month of August.
Conversely, the Dodgers have the 4th best bullpen ERA at home in the second half, at just 2.96.
The Yankees offense seems to be stuttering at the moment, scoring only 3.25 runs over their last four games. I like the Dodgers to take advantage for another home win.